Bajaj Auto Management Guidance Tracker

Management expects to hit a production rate of 5,000 units per month for Triumph within Q2, most likely in September.

Management expects gradual build-back in export volumes, with each quarter larger than the previous, but no step jump.

Management expects the 33-day festive period to see double-digit growth vs. like-to-like period last year, with Bajaj outpacing the market.

Expect gradual recovery with each quarter larger than the previous, though return to peak (210,000 units) is some time away.

Management targets to reach 15,000 units per month in Q4, up from ~10,000 exit rate in December.

Management expects sequential export volume improvement of 2-5% in Q4, tempered by Red Sea disruptions.

Triumph capacity will be increased from current 10,000 to 20,000 and then 30,000 units in first half of next fiscal.

Management expects the domestic two-wheeler industry to grow at 7-8% annually, with the premium segment growing faster.

Production capacity for Triumph motorcycles will be ramped up to 10,000 units per month in H1 FY25.

Starting at 10,000 units/month in Q2, capacity will be scaled to 40,000 by Q4, with potential for further increase based on demand.

Management plans to increase Freedom 125 production capacity to 30,000/month in Q3 and 40,000/month in Q4, driven by strong customer adoption.

Management expects exports to continue growing at 20%+ YoY for the next 3-6 months, driven by Latin America and Africa recovery.

Management expects exports to continue growing at 15-20% every quarter, driven by Latin America, KTM exports resumption, and strong competitive positions.

The industry is expected to grow 5-6% in FY26, led by the 125cc+ segment.

Management expects export growth to maintain the current quarter's pace, supported by KTM export resumption and strong emerging market demand.

Management expects sustained export momentum with 15-20% growth, emphasizing superior positions in better markets.

Management expects the motorcycle industry to improve growth rates by 6-8 percentage points in the medium term, driven by GST cuts and festive sentiment.

Management expects the motorcycle industry to sustain double-digit growth of 12-15% in the coming months, driven by GST rationalization and positive consumer sentiment.

Management plans 8 more product refreshes/upgrades in the next 4 months, completing a full refresh of the Pulsar portfolio to drive market share gains in the 150cc+ segment.

Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business.

Management confirmed new Pulsar variants will hit the market in July, aiming to further strengthen share in the premium segment.

Company plans to spend between ₹400-500 crore on EV-related capital expenditure this year, including a new three-wheeler facility.

Board approved additional investment to expand Brazil plant capacity from 20,000 to 35,000 units per annum by FY2026.

Capital expenditure for the year expected to be INR 600-700 crore, split equally between EV capabilities and ICE innovation.

Exclusive Chetak network will expand to 120 cities with 140 stores by end of Q2, covering ~75% of the industry.

Monthly capacity to be expanded to ~10,000 units by end of FY24, with network covering 100 cities.

Bajaj is working on a CNG motorcycle and expects to launch it in FY2025.

Chetak dealerships will increase from 200 to 600 within the first half of FY25.

Chetak will expand from 250 stores in June to 500 by end July and nearly 1,000 by September, driving volume growth.

Bajaj Auto Credit Ltd (BACL) currently covers 50% of stores and is on track to reach full coverage by March 2025.

Chetak will be available in about 4,000 stores by January, up from ~3,000 currently, supported by 250 exclusive stores.

Captive finance arm BACL will cover 100% of Bajaj Auto's market share by January 2025, up from 70%+ currently.

Bajaj will launch a modern e-rickshaw by end of March 2025, targeting a fragmented market with 45,000 monthly retail units.

Management confirmed at least three new Pulsar model introductions in December, March, and May to strengthen the portfolio.

Target to reach 10,000 units per month in Q3, supported by new launches and network expansion to 180 cities by year-end.

Despite cautious view on stressed markets, overall export volumes and revenue are expected to improve in FY25.

Management expects to maintain three-wheeler sales of over 100,000 units per quarter, driven by ICE and EV growth.

Bajaj Auto targets monthly export volumes exceeding 200,000 units in Q4 FY26, building on the momentum of crossing 600,000 units in Q3.

Management expects 50-70bps cost inflation from commodities, with pricing actions covering about half of the impact.

The new Chetak platform will achieve EBITDA break-even at unit level, with production scaling from February, leading to a major swing into profitability in Q4.

Compliance with OBD-II B norms from April 2025 will add ~1% cost to the motorcycle portfolio, with price hikes to be rolled out.

CFO expects commodity inflation and OBD2 norms to add ~1 percentage point to material costs in Q1, with pricing covering 30-50% of the impact.

The electric two-wheeler business is now close to EBITDA break-even, with further cost savings expected later in FY26.

EBITDA margins expected to recover towards FY25 average, aided by favorable currency and cost actions, partially offset by competitive investments.

CFO estimates material cost inflation of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 over Q4, driven by sharp increases in steel, aluminum, copper, and noble metals.

Price hikes implemented to offset about 40% of the estimated cost impact; further pricing considered as a last resort.

HRE magnet supply issue expected to be resolved by end of Q2, with complete de-risking of supply chain in 6-9 months.

Focus on liquidity, management restructuring, and cost reduction to put KTM back on track for competitive performance and sustainable financial results.