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Bajaj Auto Ltd — Q4 FY26
Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q4 with revenue of ₹16,060 crore (+32% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,323 crore (+36% YoY), and PAT of ₹2,746 crore (+34% YoY).
bullish
high
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2-Minute Summary
✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript
Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q4 with revenue of ₹16,060 crore (+32% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,323 crore (+36% YoY), and PAT of ₹2,746 crore (+34% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded 60bps to 20.8%, driven by favorable currency, richer mix, and operating leverage, offsetting 40bps net commodity inflation. All three business segments (domestic 2W, 3W, exports) grew volumes and revenues by ~20% and ~30% respectively. Exports hit a new high of ~$600M, with Latin America delivering 11 consecutive quarters of growth. Domestic 150cc+ segment market share is recovering, with Pulsar N/NS growing at twice the industry rate. Chetak crossed 1 lakh quarterly retail for the first time, and the electric portfolio achieved double-digit EBITDA margins. Management expects near-term motorcycle industry growth to moderate to 7-9%, but sees continued momentum in premium segments and EVs. Key risk: sharp commodity inflation (3.5-4% of revenue impact in Q1) may pressure margins if pricing and cost actions fall short.
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Risk Intelligence
Sharp commodity inflation in Q1 FY27
View Risks →Quarter Snapshot
Total Volume
13.7 lakh units
+24% YoY
Highest ever quarterly volume for the company.
Exports Revenue
$600 million
+25% YoY
Highest ever quarterly export revenue, driven by Latin America and Asia.
Chetak Retail
1,00,000+ units
+170bps QoQ market share
First time crossing 1 lakh quarterly retail; market share reached ~23%.
KTM Exports from India
17,500 units
from near nil YoY
Revival after disruption; KTM and Triumph combined domestic volumes grew 43% YoY.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Exports target of 220,000+ units per month in Q1 FY27
Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business.
NEW
Commodity cost inflation impact of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 FY27
CFO estimates material cost inflation of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 over Q4, driven by sharp increases in steel, aluminum, copper, and noble metals.
NEW
Pricing actions to cover ~40% of commodity inflation taken from April 1
Price hikes implemented to offset about 40% of the estimated cost impact; further pricing considered as a last resort.
NEW
New Pulsar models in 125cc and 150cc+ segments launching in July
Management confirmed new Pulsar variants will hit the market in July, aiming to further strengthen share in the premium segment.
DROPPED
Domestic motorcycle industry growth of 12-15% near-term
Management expects the motorcycle industry to sustain double-digit growth of 12-15% in the coming months, driven by GST rationalization and positive consumer sentiment.
DROPPED
Export run rate of 200,000+ units per month in Q4
Bajaj Auto targets monthly export volumes exceeding 200,000 units in Q4 FY26, building on the momentum of crossing 600,000 units in Q3.
DROPPED
15 product interventions in Pulsar portfolio over 6 months
Management plans 8 more product refreshes/upgrades in the next 4 months, completing a full refresh of the Pulsar portfolio to drive market share gains in the 150cc+ segment.
DROPPED
KTM AG operational turnaround in 2026
Focus on liquidity, management restructuring, and cost reduction to put KTM back on track for competitive performance and sustainable financial results.
NEW RISK
Sharp commodity inflation in Q1 FY27
CFO flagged 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact from commodities, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%. This could pressure margins if not fully offset.
NEW RISK
Demand moderation in domestic motorcycles
Management noted industry growth slowed from 20% in Q4 to 7-9% in April, partly due to price hikes and LPG shortage impacting consumer sentiment. Further slowdown could affect volumes.
NEW RISK
Supply chain disruptions (LPG, manpower, logistics)
Management admitted 10-15% impairment in servicing demand due to LPG shortages, manpower migration, and container availability issues. While being managed, these could persist.
NEW RISK
Geopolitical risks in Middle East affecting exports
Analyst raised concern about Gulf region disruptions; management confirmed loss of 5,000-6,000 units per month in Middle East due to geopolitical issues, with further risks if situation escalates.
RISK GONE
Commodity cost inflation pressuring margins
Management flagged 50-60bps material cost inflation in Q4, with only half offset by pricing actions so far. Further inflation could erode margins if not managed.
RISK GONE
Potential demand disruption from inflation
Rakesh Sharma noted that if rupee depreciation drives inflation in fuel, rental, or food, it could diminish purchasing power of target customers and spoil the growth outlook.
RISK GONE
KTM turnaround execution risk
While management expressed confidence, the KTM restructuring is complex and early-stage. Delays or cost overruns could impact consolidated financials.
RISK GONE
EV margin drag from rapid scale-up
The sharp acceleration in Chetak volumes temporarily diluted profit mix, as EV margins are lower than enterprise average. Sustained high growth could continue to pressure margins.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q3 FY25, Q3 FY26
Management expects the motorcycle industry to sustain double-digit growth of 12-15% in the coming months, driven by GST rationalization and positive consumer sentiment.
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q3 FY25
CNG motorcycle demand slowed due to underfilling issues at pumps and limited network density, requiring go-to-market adjustments.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q3 FY26
Management flagged 50-60bps material cost inflation in Q4, with only half offset by pricing actions so far. Further inflation could erode margins if not managed.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q4 FY25
Bajaj lost ~2% sequential market share in 100cc segment due to competitive intensity, and overall motorcycle market share progression may be slow.
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Management expects the motorcycle industry to improve growth rates by 6-8 percentage points in the medium term, driven by GST cuts and festive sentiment.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business.
CFO flagged 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact from commodities, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%.
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