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BAJAJ-AUTO Automobile 17 Oct 2024

Bajaj Auto Ltd — Q2 FY25

Bajaj Auto delivered a record quarter with revenue of INR 13,000 crore (+22% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 2,653 crore (+24% YoY), marking the fourth consecutive quarter of 20%+ EBITDA margin.

bullish high
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Revenue ₹13,247 Cr +22%
EBITDA ₹2,653 Cr +24%
EBITDA Margin 16% +40bps
Duration
Read Time 1 min read

✓ Verified against BSE filing

2-Minute Summary

✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

Bajaj Auto delivered a record quarter with revenue of INR 13,000 crore (+22% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 2,653 crore (+24% YoY), marking the fourth consecutive quarter of 20%+ EBITDA margin. Growth was driven by strong domestic performance (EV portfolio now 20% of domestic revenue) and export recovery, particularly in LatAm. The Freedom 125 CNG motorcycle is scaling rapidly, with capacity planned to reach 40,000/month by Q4. The EV portfolio (e-2W + e-3W) achieved EBITDA breakeven in absolute terms. However, consolidated PAT was impacted by a INR 580 crore loss from associate Pierer Mobility. Management remains optimistic about continued top-line growth and margin sustainability, though festive season demand has been muted. Key risk: sustained weakness in African markets and potential further losses from Pierer Mobility.

Promises0 met · 3 missedRisks4 tracked
Research workspace

Focused Modules

Promises 3 promises

Promise Tracker

0 delivered, 0 close, 3 missed.

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!Risks 4 risks

Risk Intelligence

Sustained weakness in African markets

View Risks →

Quarter Snapshot

Chetak market share 19%
+9pp YoY

Chetak's market share in e-2W doubled from ~10% in Q2 FY24 to 19% in Q2 FY25.

Freedom 125 retail sales (October) 18,000+
+80% MoM

Freedom 125 retailed over 10,000 units by September; October expected to exceed 18,000 units.

e-3W market share 35%
near leadership

Bajaj's e-auto market share reached 35%, just shy of leadership, with presence in 700+ locations.

Exports revenue $415M
+10%+ QoQ

Exports revenue of ~$415 million in Q2, with LatAm delivering record performance and 20%+ growth.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY25 vs Q1 FY25
3 new guidance3 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
Chetak distribution to expand to 4,000 stores by January 2025

Chetak will be available in about 4,000 stores by January, up from ~3,000 currently, supported by 250 exclusive stores.

NEW
BACL to achieve 100% network coverage by January 2025

Captive finance arm BACL will cover 100% of Bajaj Auto's market share by January 2025, up from 70%+ currently.

NEW
Brazil plant capacity to expand to 35,000 units annually by FY26

Board approved additional investment to expand Brazil plant capacity from 20,000 to 35,000 units per annum by FY2026.

UPDATED
Freedom 125 capacity to reach 40,000/month by Q4 FY25

Management plans to increase Freedom 125 production capacity to 30,000/month in Q3 and 40,000/month in Q4, driven by strong customer adoption.

DROPPED
Chetak EV distribution expansion to 1,000 stores by September 2024

Chetak will expand from 250 stores in June to 500 by end July and nearly 1,000 by September, driving volume growth.

DROPPED
Commodity cost inflation of 50-70bps in Q2, partially offset by pricing

Management expects 50-70bps cost inflation from commodities, with pricing actions covering about half of the impact.

DROPPED
BACL captive financing to cover 100% of stores by March 2025

Bajaj Auto Credit Ltd (BACL) currently covers 50% of stores and is on track to reach full coverage by March 2025.

NEW RISK
Sustained weakness in African markets

Africa continues to decline across major markets, though decline rates have reduced. Nigeria recovery is fragile due to currency volatility.

NEW RISK
Pierer Mobility losses may persist

Associate Pierer Mobility reported a loss of EUR 172 million in H1 2024, leading to a INR 580 crore hit on consolidated PAT. Management declined to provide forward guidance on this.

NEW RISK
Festive season demand below expectations

Motorcycle industry growth during festive season has been muted at 1-2%, below the expected 5-6%, with 100cc segment declining.

NEW RISK
EV pricing pressure and discounting

Significant discounting in the EV two-wheeler market could pressure Chetak margins, even as cost reductions are achieved.

RISK GONE
Commodity cost inflation pressure

Rising aluminum and copper prices could impact margins by 50-70bps in Q2; pricing actions only partially offset.

RISK GONE
Nigeria demand recovery remains weak

Nigeria volumes dropped from 50,000/month benchmark to under 5,000 in April, recovering to only 15,000; Africa sales down 40% YoY.

RISK GONE
EV two-wheeler profitability drag persists

Chetak remains loss-making despite cost reductions; management declined to disclose specific margin, indicating profitability is still distant.

RISK GONE
Premium motorcycle segment slowdown

Analyst noted lackluster demand in the 250-500cc segment despite multiple launches; management acknowledged the trend but offered no specific mitigation.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Nigeria export recovery slower than expected

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Nigeria volumes remain at 40-50% of peak due to currency devaluation and macroeconomic challenges, with no quick fix in sight.

Triumph production to reach 5,000 units/month by September

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

Production capacity for Triumph motorcycles will be ramped up to 10,000 units per month in H1 FY25.

Chetak monthly volume target of 15,000 units in Q4 FY24

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Management targets to reach 15,000 units per month in Q4, up from ~10,000 exit rate in December.

Commodity cost inflation in Q4

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Management noted uptick in costs for ABS, zinc, polypropylene, copper, and rubber, which could pressure margins.

EV two-wheeler unit profitability still distant

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

Chetak remains loss-making despite cost reductions; management declined to disclose specific margin, indicating profitability is still distant.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Freedom 125 capacity to reach 40,000/month by Q4 FY25

Management plans to increase Freedom 125 production capacity to 30,000/month in Q3 and 40,000/month in Q4, driven by strong customer adoption.

Top risk Sustained weakness in African markets

Africa continues to decline across major markets, though decline rates have reduced.

View Risks →