Promises
4 promises
Promise Tracker
0 delivered, 0 close, 4 missed.
View Promises →Bajaj Auto Ltd — Q4 FY25
Bajaj Auto delivered a record FY25 with revenue crossing INR 50,000 crore and EBITDA surpassing INR 10,000 crore for the first time.
bullish
high
✓ Verified against BSE filing
2-Minute Summary
✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript
Bajaj Auto delivered a record FY25 with revenue crossing INR 50,000 crore and EBITDA surpassing INR 10,000 crore for the first time. Q4 standalone revenue grew 6% YoY to INR 12,148 crore, with EBITDA margins steady at 22%. Exports volume grew 20% YoY, driven by Latin America and premium brands. Domestic motorcycle market share in the 125cc+ segment slipped to 24% but countermeasures are in play. Chetak became the #1 EV2W brand with 25% market share in Q4. The company expects exports to grow 15-20% per quarter and domestic industry growth of 5-6% in FY26. Key risks include rare earth magnet supply disruptions from China and potential margin pressure from currency headwinds and commodity inflation.
बजाज ऑटो ने वित्त वर्ष 2025 में रिकॉर्ड प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी की कुल कमाई पहली बार 50,000 करोड़ रुपये से अधिक हुई, और परिचालन लाभ (EBITDA) 10,000 करोड़ रुपये पार कर गया। चौथी तिमाही में भारत में कमाई पिछले साल से 6% बढ़कर 12,148 करोड़ रुपये रही, और लाभ मार्जिन 22% पर स्थिर रहा। विदेशों में बिक्री 20% बढ़ी, खासकर लैटिन अमेरिका और प्रीमियम ब्रांडों की वजह से। भारत में 125cc से बड़ी मोटरसाइकिलों में बाजार हिस्सेदारी 24% पर आ गई, लेकिन इसे सुधारने के उपाय किए जा रहे हैं। चेतक इलेक्ट्रिक स्कूटर ने 25% हिस्सेदारी के साथ पहला स्थान हासिल किया। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि अगले वित्त वर्ष में विदेशी बिक्री हर तिमाही 15-20% और भारतीय बाजार 5-6% बढ़ेगा। मुख्य जोखिम चीन से दुर्लभ मैग्नेट की आपूर्ति में रुकावट और मुद्रा में उतार-चढ़ाव व कच्चे माल की महंगाई से लाभ पर दबाव है।
Promises0 met · 4 missedRisks4 tracked
Research workspace
Focused Modules
Risks
4 risks
Risk Intelligence
Rare earth magnet supply disruption from China
View Risks →Quarter Snapshot
Exports volume growth (Q4)
20%
+20% YoY
Exports volume grew 20% in Q4, outpacing industry growth of 26% in top 30 markets.
Chetak EV market share (Q4)
25%
+12pp YoY
Chetak became the #1 electric two-wheeler brand in India with 25% market share in Q4.
125cc+ domestic market share (FY25)
24%
-2pp YoY
Market share in the 125cc+ segment declined from 26% in FY24 to 24% in FY25.
Export revenue (Q4)
$470M
+20% YoY
Export revenue was $470 million in Q4, benefiting from currency tailwinds and volume growth.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Exports to grow 15-20% per quarter
Management expects exports to continue growing at 15-20% every quarter, driven by Latin America, KTM exports resumption, and strong competitive positions.
NEW
Domestic motorcycle industry growth of 5-6% in FY26
The industry is expected to grow 5-6% in FY26, led by the 125cc+ segment.
NEW
Material cost inflation of ~1pp in Q1 FY26
CFO expects commodity inflation and OBD2 norms to add ~1 percentage point to material costs in Q1, with pricing covering 30-50% of the impact.
NEW
Chetak EV business near EBITDA break-even
The electric two-wheeler business is now close to EBITDA break-even, with further cost savings expected later in FY26.
DROPPED
Exports growth of 20%+ in near term
Management expects exports to continue growing at 20%+ YoY for the next 3-6 months, driven by Latin America and Africa recovery.
DROPPED
Chetak 3.5 series to drive EV profitability in Q4
The new Chetak platform will achieve EBITDA break-even at unit level, with production scaling from February, leading to a major swing into profitability in Q4.
DROPPED
E-rickshaw launch by end of FY25
Bajaj will launch a modern e-rickshaw by end of March 2025, targeting a fragmented market with 45,000 monthly retail units.
DROPPED
OBD-II B cost impact of ~1% on portfolio
Compliance with OBD-II B norms from April 2025 will add ~1% cost to the motorcycle portfolio, with price hikes to be rolled out.
NEW RISK
Rare earth magnet supply disruption from China
Continued supply of rare earth magnets from China is uncertain; any delay could seriously impact EV production by July 2025.
NEW RISK
Currency headwinds and commodity inflation in Q1 FY26
CFO noted that USD/INR realizations have softened, and aluminum prices have surged, which could weigh on margins in the near term.
NEW RISK
KTM turnaround execution risk
While Bajaj intends to take control of KTM, regulatory approvals are pending, and the turnaround plan is yet to be implemented. CY25 will be a year of restoring normalcy, with results expected only in CY26.
NEW RISK
Domestic market share erosion in 125cc+ segment
Market share in the 125cc+ segment declined from 26% to 24% in FY25 due to competitive launches. Countermeasures are in place but recovery is not guaranteed.
RISK GONE
KTM restructuring uncertainty
KTM exports dropped ~50% due to financial restructuring in Austria; revival depends on court-supervised process by Feb 25, but outcome uncertain.
RISK GONE
Currency volatility in export markets
Currency-led volatility, particularly in South Asia and Africa, could impact export growth and margins.
RISK GONE
Slow adoption of CNG motorcycle Freedom
Adoption of Freedom is slower than expected due to sparse CNG pump density and lower savings for low-mileage users; market development efforts may take time.
RISK GONE
Market share erosion in entry-level ICE motorcycles
Bajaj lost market share in the 100cc segment due to aggressive pricing by competitors, and management's deliberate choice to avoid discounting may persist.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Nigeria volumes remain at 40-50% of peak due to currency devaluation and macroeconomic challenges, with no quick fix in sight.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24
Production capacity for Triumph motorcycles will be ramped up to 10,000 units per month in H1 FY25.
Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Management targets to reach 15,000 units per month in Q4, up from ~10,000 exit rate in December.
Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Management noted uptick in costs for ABS, zinc, polypropylene, copper, and rubber, which could pressure margins.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24
Chetak remains loss-making despite cost reductions; management declined to disclose specific margin, indicating profitability is still distant.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects exports to continue growing at 15-20% every quarter, driven by Latin America, KTM exports resumption, and strong competitive pos...
Continued supply of rare earth magnets from China is uncertain; any delay could seriously impact EV production by July 2025.
View Risks →