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View Promises →Bajaj Auto Ltd — Q3 FY26
Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q3 FY26 with revenue of INR 15,220 crore (+19% YoY), EBITDA of INR 3,161 crore (20.8% margin, +60bps YoY), and PAT of INR 2,503 crore (+19% YoY).
bullish
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2-Minute Summary
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Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q3 FY26 with revenue of INR 15,220 crore (+19% YoY), EBITDA of INR 3,161 crore (20.8% margin, +60bps YoY), and PAT of INR 2,503 crore (+19% YoY). Growth was broad-based: domestic motorcycles benefited from GST cuts and a 15% industry uptick; exports crossed 600,000 units after 15 quarters; EV portfolio hit 25% of domestic revenue with double-digit EBITDA margins; and Pro Biking (KTM/Triumph) volumes grew ~50% YoY. Management expects domestic motorcycle industry growth of 12-15% to sustain, with Bajaj gaining share in the 125cc+ segment via 15 product refreshes. Exports should maintain momentum, targeting 200,000+ units/month in Q4. Key risk: commodity cost inflation (50-60bps impact in Q4) could pressure margins if not offset by pricing and currency tailwinds.
बजाज ऑटो ने वित्त वर्ष 2026 की तीसरी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी की कुल कमाई 15,220 करोड़ रुपये रही, जो पिछले साल से 19% ज्यादा है। मुनाफा 2,503 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 19% बढ़ा। देश में बाइक की बिक्री बढ़ी क्योंकि सरकार ने टैक्स घटाया और बाजार में 15% उछाल आया। विदेशों में भी बिक्री 6 लाख यूनिट पार कर गई। इलेक्ट्रिक वाहनों से अब घरेलू कमाई का 25% आता है। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि आने वाले समय में बाइक बाजार 12-15% बढ़ेगा। हालांकि, कच्चे माल की बढ़ती कीमतों से मुनाफे पर थोड़ा दबाव पड़ सकता है।
Promises0 met · 3 missedRisks4 tracked
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Focused Modules
Risks
4 risks
Risk Intelligence
Commodity cost inflation pressuring margins
View Risks →Quarter Snapshot
Export Volumes
600,000+ units
+18% YoY
Exports crossed 600k units in a quarter for the first time in 15 quarters, driven by broad-based growth across markets.
EV Share of Domestic Revenue
25%
+40% QoQ
EV portfolio (2W+3W) now contributes 25% of domestic revenue, with both segments crossing INR 1,000 crore quarterly revenue.
Pro Biking Volumes
35,000+ units
+50% YoY
KTM and Triumph together achieved highest-ever quarterly domestic volumes, led by KTM Adventure portfolio growth.
Chetak Market Share Gain
~500 bps
+500bps QoQ
Chetak regained ~500bps market share in Q3, returning to the leadership cluster after supply chain disruptions.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Export run rate of 200,000+ units per month in Q4
Bajaj Auto targets monthly export volumes exceeding 200,000 units in Q4 FY26, building on the momentum of crossing 600,000 units in Q3.
NEW
15 product interventions in Pulsar portfolio over 6 months
Management plans 8 more product refreshes/upgrades in the next 4 months, completing a full refresh of the Pulsar portfolio to drive market share gains in the 150cc+ segment.
NEW
KTM AG operational turnaround in 2026
Focus on liquidity, management restructuring, and cost reduction to put KTM back on track for competitive performance and sustainable financial results.
UPDATED
Domestic motorcycle industry growth of 12-15% near-term
Management expects the motorcycle industry to sustain double-digit growth of 12-15% in the coming months, driven by GST rationalization and positive consumer sentiment.
DROPPED
Exports growth target of 15-20%
Management expects sustained export momentum with 15-20% growth, emphasizing superior positions in better markets.
DROPPED
Three-wheeler sales over 100,000 units per quarter
Management expects to maintain three-wheeler sales of over 100,000 units per quarter, driven by ICE and EV growth.
DROPPED
New Pulsar model launches in Dec, Mar, May
Management confirmed at least three new Pulsar model introductions in December, March, and May to strengthen the portfolio.
NEW RISK
Commodity cost inflation pressuring margins
Management flagged 50-60bps material cost inflation in Q4, with only half offset by pricing actions so far. Further inflation could erode margins if not managed.
NEW RISK
Potential demand disruption from inflation
Rakesh Sharma noted that if rupee depreciation drives inflation in fuel, rental, or food, it could diminish purchasing power of target customers and spoil the growth outlook.
NEW RISK
KTM turnaround execution risk
While management expressed confidence, the KTM restructuring is complex and early-stage. Delays or cost overruns could impact consolidated financials.
NEW RISK
EV margin drag from rapid scale-up
The sharp acceleration in Chetak volumes temporarily diluted profit mix, as EV margins are lower than enterprise average. Sustained high growth could continue to pressure margins.
RISK GONE
Supply chain constraints in EV components
Chetak and e-auto faced 50% and 15% shortfall from plan due to rare earth magnet and e-component shortages, respectively.
RISK GONE
GST disparity on >350cc motorcycles
GST on >350cc models increased from 31% to 40%, creating a cost disadvantage vs sub-350cc models, impacting KTM and Triumph competitiveness.
RISK GONE
ABS mandate cost impact
Potential mandatory ABS on all two-wheelers could add INR 2,000-3,000 per vehicle, with industry capacity concerns; government meeting on Nov 11.
RISK GONE
CNG motorcycle adoption slower than expected
CNG motorcycle demand slowed due to underfilling issues at pumps and limited network density, requiring go-to-market adjustments.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q3 FY25
CNG motorcycle demand slowed due to underfilling issues at pumps and limited network density, requiring go-to-market adjustments.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q4 FY25
Bajaj lost ~2% sequential market share in 100cc segment due to competitive intensity, and overall motorcycle market share progression may be slow.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management plans to increase Freedom 125 production capacity to 30,000/month in Q3 and 40,000/month in Q4, driven by strong customer adoption.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26
Nigeria, a key export market, remains weak due to currency devaluation and inflation, with no clear timeline for recovery.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q4 FY25
Non-availability of HRE magnets has caused 50% production shortfall in Chetak and 25-30% in e-auto in Q2, potentially impacting EV growth and margins.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects the motorcycle industry to sustain double-digit growth of 12-15% in the coming months, driven by GST rationalization and positiv...
Management flagged 50-60bps material cost inflation in Q4, with only half offset by pricing actions so far.
View Risks →