Adani Green Energy Management Guidance Tracker
46 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Growth
Target to achieve 45 GW operational capacity by 2030 through solar, wind, and hybrid solutions.
Q1 FY242.8-3 GW capacity addition in FY24ActivePlanned capacity addition for the current financial year, with financial closure for most projects already achieved.
Q2 FY24FY2024 capacity addition of 2.8-3 GWActiveManagement guided for 2.8 to 3 GW capacity addition in FY2024, with most commissioning in the second half. Funding is fully secured.
Q2 FY2445 GW target by 2030TrackedAdani Green reiterated its target to reach 45 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, with a mix of solar, wind, pumped hydro, and batteries.
Q3 FY24Capacity addition of at least 2 GW in Q4 FY24ActiveManagement guided for at least 2 GW capacity addition in the next quarter (Q4 FY24), with a target of 2-2.5 GW.
Q3 FY24Execution capacity to exceed 5 GW from next yearTrackedThe company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
Q3 FY24Merchant portfolio to reach low teens by end of decadeTrackedMerchant capacity is expected to grow to low teens (as a percentage of total portfolio) by 2030, from current 3-5%.
Q4 FY24FY25 capacity addition target of at least 6,000 MWTrackedManagement guided for greenfield capacity addition of at least 6,000 MW in FY25, with a run-rate of 6,000-8,000 MW per year going forward.
Q4 FY242030 capacity target revised to 50 GWTrackedRevised the 2030 renewable energy capacity target from 45 GW to 50 GW, with 100% funding locked in from debt and equity.
Q1 FY256 GW capacity addition in FY25TrackedManagement guided for 6 GW of new capacity in FY25, including ~700 MW of wind.
Q1 FY2550 GW target by 2030TrackedReiterated 50 GW capacity target by 2030, including 5 GW of pumped storage.
Q2 FY256 GW capacity addition in FY25ActiveManagement committed to adding 6 GW of renewable capacity in FY25, with one-third expected in Q3 and remainder by year-end.
Q2 FY25Minimum 6 GW annual run-rate going forwardTrackedBeyond FY25, the company plans a minimum run-rate of 6 GW per year for capacity additions.
Q3 FY25FY25 capacity addition target of 5 GWActiveCompany expects to add approximately 5 GW of new capacity in FY25, with 4.3 GW coming in Q4. Remaining ~1 GW delayed by 4-5 weeks into early Q1 FY26 due to monsoon and regulatory changes.
Q3 FY2550 GW target by 2030 maintainedTrackedManagement reiterated the long-term strategic objective of reaching 50 GW operational capacity by 2030, with 85% long-term PPAs and 15% merchant/CNI.
Q3 FY25Next year capacity addition in 6-8 GW rangeTrackedManagement confirmed the guidance for next year's capacity addition remains in the 6-8 GW range, with plans to ramp up run rate.
Q4 FY255 GW capacity addition in FY26TrackedManagement targets adding 5 GW of operational capacity in FY2026, with a total CapEx of INR 31,000 crore.
Q1 FY265 GW capacity addition target for FY26ActiveManagement confirmed on track to add 5 GW this fiscal, with 1.6 GW already commissioned in Q1.
Q1 FY2650 GW target by 2030 remains fully fundedTrackedCapital management framework ensures growth is fully funded for the 50 GW target while maintaining credit discipline.
Q2 FY265 GW capacity addition in FY26ActiveManagement reaffirmed commitment to add 5 GW of renewable capacity in FY26, with 2.4 GW already commissioned in H1.
Q2 FY2650 GW capacity target by 2030TrackedManagement reiterated the long-term target of 50 GW operational capacity by 2030, with steady progress on Khavda and other projects.
Q3 FY2650 GW operational capacity by 2030TrackedManagement reiterated target to achieve 50 GW operational renewable capacity by 2030, with 5.6 GW added in calendar 2025.
Q4 FY26FY27 capacity addition of 4.5-5 GWTrackedManagement guided for 4.5-5 GW of new capacity in FY27, constrained by transmission evacuation availability.
Q4 FY2650 GW target by 2030 unchangedTrackedManagement reaffirmed the 50 GW target by 2030, with no current revision despite near-term constraints.
Capex
Capital cost for solar projects excluding basic customs duty is expected to be in this range.
Q1 FY24Wind project cost: ₹6.3-6.5 cr/MWTrackedAll-in capital cost for wind projects, including turbine and balance of system.
Q2 FY26CapEx of INR 30,000-35,000 crore annually for next 2 yearsTrackedCFO guided CapEx in the range of INR 30,000-35,000 crore per year for FY27 and FY28, supporting similar capacity additions.
Q3 FY26CapEx of INR 35,000-40,000 crore next yearTrackedManagement guided for CapEx in the range of INR 35,000-40,000 crore for the next fiscal year to support 50 GW target by 2030.
Q4 FY2610 GWh battery storage commissioning in FY27TrackedPlans to commission over 10 GWh of battery storage in FY27, with capital cost of ~INR 1.5 crore per MWh.
Other
Management expects to refinance the $500 million RG-One bond through USD PP market at an effective cost similar to current AGEL Holdco cost of ~9.6%, with no material increase.
Q1 FY25Portfolio borrowing cost to decline from 9.4%TrackedCFO expects average portfolio interest rate to come down significantly from 9.4%, with new borrowings at 8.6%-8.9%.
Expansion
Management expects to take a final investment decision (FID) on a pumped storage project before the end of FY2024, with construction cycle of 27-33 months.
Q3 FY24Pumped storage project implementation to start next fiscal yearTrackedManagement confirmed that pumped storage project implementation will begin in the next financial year, with one project in advanced stages.
Q4 FY24Pumped hydro storage target of 5 GW by 2030TrackedTargeting at least 5 GW of pumped hydro storage capacity by 2030, with first 500 MW project in Andhra Pradesh under construction and expected commissioning by FY27.
Q2 FY25Google data center PPA commissioning in CY Q3 2025TrackedThe 61 MW PPA with Google is expected to start supplying power in calendar Q3 2025.
Q4 FY2550 GW target by 2030 fully equity-fundedTrackedPost full conversion of warrants, equity funding for the 50 GW target is fully secured; debt funding is being arranged progressively.
Q4 FY25Chitravathi PSP commissioning by September 2027TrackedThe 500 MW pumped storage plant at Chitravathi is expected to be commissioned by September 2027.
Q1 FY2625% of capacity to target C&I/merchant markets by FY30TrackedStrategy to allocate a quarter of portfolio to merchant, C&I, and hybrid contracts, including data center demand.
Q3 FY26Battery storage capacity to more than double next yearTrackedManagement expects to commission 3.5 GWh battery storage this fiscal and more than double that capacity in the coming year.
Revenue
Management indicated that merchant and C&I capacity will be about 10% of the portfolio mix, up from current ~5%.
Q1 FY2515% merchant/C&I portfolio mixTrackedTargeting 15% of portfolio from merchant and C&I sales by 2030.
Q2 FY25Run-rate EBITDA of INR 16,000 crore post 6 GW additionTrackedAfter adding 6 GW, the company expects a run-rate EBITDA in excess of INR 16,000 crore on an installed base of 17 GW.
Q3 FY26FY26 run-rate EBITDA of INR 17,000 croreActiveManagement guided for FY26 run-rate EBITDA of INR 17,000 crore, including INR 1,000 crore other income, with power supply EBITDA at INR 16,000 crore.
Q4 FY26More than 90% of new capacity tied to long-term PPAsTrackedGoing forward, over 90% of capacity additions will be under long-term PPAs, reversing the FY26 anomaly of high merchant exposure.