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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q3 FY26
Adani Green Energy reported robust 9M FY26 results with revenue from power supply up 25% YoY to Rs 8,508 crore and EBITDA up 24% to Rs 7,921 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 91.5%.
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Adani Green Energy reported robust 9M FY26 results with revenue from power supply up 25% YoY to Rs 8,508 crore and EBITDA up 24% to Rs 7,921 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 91.5%. Energy sales grew 37% to 27.6 billion units, driven by 48% YoY operational capacity expansion to 17.2 GW. However, Q3 was impacted by grid curtailment delays (2-3 GW augmentation pushed to Q4) and subdued merchant power pricing (solar merchant realization fell to Rs 2.20/unit vs Rs 2.82 last year). Management guided for FY26 run-rate EBITDA of Rs 17,000 crore and CapEx of Rs 35,000-40,000 crore next year. Battery storage (3.5 GWh commissioning imminent) and pumped storage are key to mitigating curtailment risks. Risk: continued transmission delays could pressure near-term generation and returns.
आदानी ग्रीन एनर्जी ने 9 महीने के नतीजे बताए। बिजली बेचने से कमाई 25% बढ़कर ₹8,508 करोड़ हुई। कमाई और खर्च का अंतर (EBITDA) 24% बढ़कर ₹7,921 करोड़ रहा, जो 91.5% का बेहतरीन मार्जिन है। बिजली की बिक्री 37% बढ़कर 27.6 अरब यूनिट हुई, क्योंकि बिजली बनाने की क्षमता 48% बढ़कर 17.2 गीगावॉट हो गई। लेकिन तीसरी तिमाही में ग्रिड में देरी और बाजार में बिजली के कम दाम (सौर बिजली ₹2.20 प्रति यूनिट) से असर पड़ा। कंपनी का अनुमान है कि इस साल EBITDA ₹17,000 करोड़ और अगले साल खर्च ₹35,000-40,000 करोड़ होगा। बैटरी स्टोरेज से ग्रिड की समस्या कम होगी। जोखिम: ट्रांसमिशन में देरी से कमाई पर दबाव पड़ सकता है।
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Grid curtailment delays impacting generation
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Operational Capacity
17.2 GW
+48% YoY
Operational renewable capacity expanded 48% year-on-year, reinforcing leadership as India's largest pure-play renewable company.
Energy Sales
27.6B units
+37% YoY
Energy sales surged 37% year-on-year, driven by greenfield capacity additions and strong plant performance.
Solar Merchant Realization
Rs 2.20/unit
-22% YoY
Solar merchant realization fell to Rs 2.20/unit in Q3 from Rs 2.82/unit last year due to subdued market pricing.
Khavda Operational Capacity
7.7 GW
N/A
Khavda project operational portfolio now at 7.7 GW, with plans for world's largest single-location BESS deployment.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
FY26 run-rate EBITDA of INR 17,000 crore
Management guided for FY26 run-rate EBITDA of INR 17,000 crore, including INR 1,000 crore other income, with power supply EBITDA at INR 16,000 crore.
NEW
Battery storage capacity to more than double next year
Management expects to commission 3.5 GWh battery storage this fiscal and more than double that capacity in the coming year.
UPDATED
CapEx of INR 35,000-40,000 crore next year
Management guided for CapEx in the range of INR 35,000-40,000 crore for the next fiscal year to support 50 GW target by 2030.
UPDATED
50 GW operational capacity by 2030
Management reiterated target to achieve 50 GW operational renewable capacity by 2030, with 5.6 GW added in calendar 2025.
DROPPED
5 GW capacity addition in FY26
Management reaffirmed commitment to add 5 GW of renewable capacity in FY26, with 2.4 GW already commissioned in H1.
DROPPED
BESS strategy to be announced shortly
CEO indicated that a detailed strategy for battery energy storage systems (BESS) will be shared soon, with plans for large-scale deployment.
NEW RISK
Grid curtailment delays impacting generation
Delays in grid augmentation (2-3 GW pushed to Q4) have caused curtailment, particularly at Khavda, reducing revenue and EBITDA.
NEW RISK
Subdued merchant power pricing
Merchant power realizations fell sharply (solar Rs 2.20/unit vs Rs 2.82 last year) due to market conditions, impacting revenue.
NEW RISK
Commodity price risk (silver/module costs)
Rising silver prices (3x increase) could increase module costs by ~10%, potentially impacting project IRRs if not hedged.
NEW RISK
CERC DSM regulation tightening
CERC draft regulation on tighter DSM norms for renewables could increase penalties, though management sees storage as mitigation.
RISK GONE
Evacuation delays at Khavda
Grid availability for new projects is impacted by transmission infrastructure delays, though management expects 10 GW evacuation capacity by year-end.
RISK GONE
Margin compression from infirm power conversion
As infirm power (currently sold at merchant rates) gets converted to PPAs, blended realizations may decline, impacting EBITDA margins.
RISK GONE
Competition in BESS tenders
Management acknowledged aggressive bidding in BESS tenders, which may pressure returns; they chose not to participate in recent tenders.
RISK GONE
Monsoon impact on solar PLF
Prolonged monsoon in Q2 FY26 reduced solar PLF, though management expects normalization in H2.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25, Q2 FY26, Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25
Management reaffirmed commitment to add 5 GW of renewable capacity in FY26, with 2.4 GW already commissioned in H1.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26, Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25
Management reiterated the long-term target of 50 GW operational capacity by 2030, with steady progress on Khavda and other projects.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25
Solar merchant prices fell to ₹2.2/unit in Q1 from ~₹3 in Q4 due to early monsoon and oversupply; wind prices also seasonal.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY25
Scaling Khavda to 30 GW by 2029 involves significant execution challenges; any delays could impact capacity addition targets.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26
Grid availability for new projects is impacted by transmission infrastructure delays, though management expects 10 GW evacuation capacity by year-end.
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Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for FY26 run-rate EBITDA of INR 17,000 crore, including INR 1,000 crore other income, with power supply EBITDA at INR 16,000 crore.
Delays in grid augmentation (2-3 GW pushed to Q4) have caused curtailment, particularly at Khavda, reducing revenue and EBITDA.
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