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Merchant solar price volatility
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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q1 FY25
Adani Green reported a strong Q1 FY25 with revenue from power supply up 24% YoY to INR 2,528 crore and EBITDA margin of 92.6%, driven by tech-enabled O&M and capacity additions of 2.6 GW over the past year.
bullish
high
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Adani Green reported a strong Q1 FY25 with revenue from power supply up 24% YoY to INR 2,528 crore and EBITDA margin of 92.6%, driven by tech-enabled O&M and capacity additions of 2.6 GW over the past year. Operational capacity reached 11.2 GW, including 2.25 GW at Khavda, where a 250 MW wind plant with India's largest 5.2 MW turbines was commissioned. Management reiterated the 50 GW target by 2030, with 6 GW expected this fiscal, funded via internal accruals and promoter warrants without equity dilution. Key risks include merchant solar price volatility (Q1 realization ~INR 4/unit) and execution challenges in scaling pumped storage and wind capacity.
अडानी ग्रीन ने पहली तिमाही में अच्छा प्रदर्शन किया। बिजली बेचने से कमाई पिछले साल से 24% बढ़कर 2,528 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। कंपनी का मुनाफा मार्जिन 92.6% रहा, जो तकनीक की मदद से संभव हुआ। पिछले एक साल में 2.6 गीगावॉट नई क्षमता जुड़ी, जिससे कुल क्षमता 11.2 गीगावॉट हो गई। कच्छ के खावड़ा में 2.25 गीगावॉट क्षमता बनी, जिसमें 250 मेगावॉट की पवन परियोजना शामिल है। कंपनी 2030 तक 50 गीगावॉट क्षमता का लक्ष्य रखती है और इस साल 6 गीगावॉट जोड़ेगी। पैसे कंपनी के अपने फंड और प्रमोटरों से आएंगे, शेयर बेचने की जरूरत नहीं। जोखिमों में बिजली की कीमतों में उतार-चढ़ाव और नई परियोजनाओं को समय पर पूरा करने की चुनौती शामिल है।
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Operational Capacity
11.2 GW
+2.6 GW YoY
Total operational portfolio reached 11.2 GW, including 2.25 GW at Khavda.
Energy Sales
7,356 MUs
+22% YoY
Energy sales increased 22% YoY to 7,356 million units.
Khavda Wind CUF
35%
N/A
Projected average CUF for new wind turbines at Khavda is 35%.
Merchant Capacity (FY25 end)
~2,400 MW
+1,850 MW YoY
Merchant capacity expected to reach ~2,400 MW by end of FY25, predominantly wind.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Portfolio borrowing cost to decline from 9.4%
CFO expects average portfolio interest rate to come down significantly from 9.4%, with new borrowings at 8.6%-8.9%.
UPDATED
6 GW capacity addition in FY25
Management guided for 6 GW of new capacity in FY25, including ~700 MW of wind.
UPDATED
50 GW target by 2030
Reiterated 50 GW capacity target by 2030, including 5 GW of pumped storage.
UPDATED
15% merchant/C&I portfolio mix
Targeting 15% of portfolio from merchant and C&I sales by 2030.
NEW RISK
Dependence on promoter warrants for funding
Management stated no equity dilution needed, relying on promoter warrants and internal cash flows, which may be constrained if execution slips.
NEW RISK
Regulatory changes in solar imports
New import duty on solar glass may increase module costs, though management claims limited near-term impact due to ALMM exemptions.
RISK GONE
ALMM module supply constraints
ALMM regulations may restrict module imports, but management stated all FY25 requirements are fully locked in and de-risked.
RISK GONE
Transmission evacuation delays
While management claims 100% transmission tie-ups for the pipeline, any delays in grid connectivity could impact project commissioning.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
While lower module prices improve returns, sustainability of current low prices is uncertain, impacting project economics.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q4 FY24
Revised the 2030 renewable energy capacity target from 45 GW to 50 GW, with 100% funding locked in from debt and equity.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24
The company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
Mentioned in Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24
While management claims 100% transmission tie-ups for the pipeline, any delays in grid connectivity could impact project commissioning.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for 6 GW of new capacity in FY25, including ~700 MW of wind.
Q1 solar merchant realization was ~INR 4/unit, below the guided INR 4-4.5, due to seasonal softening.
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