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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q2 FY24
Adani Green Energy reported a strong H1 FY2024 with revenue from power supply up 66% YoY to INR 4,029 crore and EBITDA up 58% to INR 3,775 crore, driven by a 78% increase in energy sales to 11,760 million units.
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Adani Green Energy reported a strong H1 FY2024 with revenue from power supply up 66% YoY to INR 4,029 crore and EBITDA up 58% to INR 3,775 crore, driven by a 78% increase in energy sales to 11,760 million units. The solar portfolio CUF improved 90 bps to 25.2%, while wind CUF rose 360 bps to 40.2%. Management reiterated its 45 GW target by 2030 and guided for 2.8-3 GW capacity addition in FY2024, with most commissioning in H2. The TotalEnergies JV for 1,050 MW (equity investment) and advanced refinancing discussions for RG-One bonds support the growth plan. Key risk: execution delays in Khavda or module supply constraints could impact the aggressive H2 commissioning schedule.
अडानी ग्रीन एनर्जी ने वित्त वर्ष 2024 की पहली छमाही में मजबूत प्रदर्शन किया। बिजली बेचने से आय 66% बढ़कर 4,029 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। कमाई (EBITDA) 58% बढ़कर 3,775 करोड़ रुपये रही। इसकी वजह बिजली की बिक्री में 78% का उछाल था, जो 11,760 मिलियन यूनिट तक पहुंच गई। सौर ऊर्जा संयंत्रों की दक्षता (CUF) 0.90% सुधरकर 25.2% हो गई, जबकि पवन ऊर्जा की दक्षता 3.60% बढ़कर 40.2% हो गई। कंपनी ने 2030 तक 45 गीगावॉट क्षमता का लक्ष्य दोहराया और इस साल 2.8-3 गीगावॉट नई क्षमता जोड़ने की योजना बनाई है, जिसमें ज्यादातर काम दूसरी छमाही में होगा। टोटलएनर्जीज के साथ साझेदारी और कर्ज पुनर्वित्तपोषण से विकास को मदद मिलेगी। मुख्य जोखिम: खावड़ा परियोजना में देरी या सोलर पैनल की कमी से लक्ष्य प्रभावित हो सकता है।
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Execution risk for H2 commissioning
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Energy Sales
11,760M units
+78% YoY
Sale of energy increased 78% year-on-year in H1 FY2024 due to strong capacity addition and improved CUF.
Solar Portfolio CUF
25.2%
+90bps YoY
Solar CUF improved 90 bps YoY to 25.2% in H1 FY2024, driven by better plant availability and solar radiation.
Wind Portfolio CUF
40.2%
+360bps YoY
Wind CUF improved 360 bps YoY to 40.2% in H1 FY2024, with consistent wind speed and improved grid availability.
Net Debt to Run-Rate EBITDA
4.99x
-0.91x YoY
Net debt to run-rate EBITDA improved from 5.9x last year to 4.99x as of September 2023, well below covenant of 7.5x.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
45 GW target by 2030
Adani Green reiterated its target to reach 45 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, with a mix of solar, wind, pumped hydro, and batteries.
NEW
Refinancing of RG-One bonds at similar cost
Management expects to refinance the $500 million RG-One bond through USD PP market at an effective cost similar to current AGEL Holdco cost of ~9.6%, with no material increase.
NEW
Pumped storage FID by end of FY2024
Management expects to take a final investment decision (FID) on a pumped storage project before the end of FY2024, with construction cycle of 27-33 months.
UPDATED
FY2024 capacity addition of 2.8-3 GW
Management guided for 2.8 to 3 GW capacity addition in FY2024, with most commissioning in the second half. Funding is fully secured.
DROPPED
45 GW renewable capacity by 2030
Target to achieve 45 GW operational capacity by 2030 through solar, wind, and hybrid solutions.
DROPPED
Solar project cost ex-BCD: ₹4.8-5 cr/MW
Capital cost for solar projects excluding basic customs duty is expected to be in this range.
DROPPED
Wind project cost: ₹6.3-6.5 cr/MW
All-in capital cost for wind projects, including turbine and balance of system.
NEW RISK
Execution risk for H2 commissioning
With only 200 MW added in H1, the company needs to commission ~2.6 GW in H2 to meet its 2.8-3 GW target. Any delays in Khavda or module supply could cause slippage.
NEW RISK
ALMM compliance for imported modules
An analyst raised concerns about using Chinese modules (non-ALMM) for projects with SCOD near March 2024. Management clarified that current projects are exempt, but future projects may face restrictions.
NEW RISK
Refinancing risk for Holdco bond
The $750 million Holdco bond maturing in FY2025 is expected to be repaid from a group liquidity pool, but any disruption in group-level liquidity could create refinancing pressure.
RISK GONE
Wind CUF volatility
Wind CUF declined to 38.7% from 47% YoY due to lower wind speeds and Cyclone Biparjoy, impacting generation.
RISK GONE
Execution capacity constraints
Management acknowledged that supplier and contractor ecosystem is near upper limits, requiring proactive vendor development.
RISK GONE
Dependence on group companies for wind turbines
The 5.2 MW turbine from group company is key for Khavra; any delays in commercial launch could impact project timelines.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for 2.8 to 3 GW capacity addition in FY2024, with most commissioning in the second half.
With only 200 MW added in H1, the company needs to commission ~2.6 GW in H2 to meet its 2.8-3 GW target.
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