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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q4 FY24
Adani Green Energy reported a strong Q4 FY24 with revenue from power supply up 33% YoY to INR 7,735 crore and EBITDA up 30% to INR 7,222 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92%.
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Adani Green Energy reported a strong Q4 FY24 with revenue from power supply up 33% YoY to INR 7,735 crore and EBITDA up 30% to INR 7,222 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92%. The company added 2,848 MW of greenfield capacity in FY24, a 35% YoY increase, and operationalized 2 GW at the Khavda project within 12 months. Management guided for at least 6,000 MW of capacity addition in FY25 and revised the 2030 target to 50 GW, fully funded. The net debt to run-rate EBITDA improved to 4x from 5.4x. Key strategic initiatives include developing 5 GW of pumped hydro storage by 2030 and increasing merchant/C&I exposure to ~10% of the portfolio. Risks include potential module supply constraints from ALMM regulations and execution challenges in pumped hydro projects.
अडानी ग्रीन एनर्जी ने वित्त वर्ष 2024 की चौथी तिमाही में मजबूत प्रदर्शन किया। बिजली बेचने से कमाई 33% बढ़कर ₹7,735 करोड़ हो गई। कंपनी का मुनाफा (EBITDA) 30% बढ़कर ₹7,222 करोड़ रहा, जो 92% का रिकॉर्ड मार्जिन है। इस साल कंपनी ने 2,848 मेगावाट नई बिजली क्षमता जोड़ी, जो पिछले साल से 35% ज्यादा है। खावड़ा प्रोजेक्ट में 12 महीने में 2 गीगावॉट बिजली उत्पादन शुरू हुआ। कंपनी ने अगले साल कम से कम 6,000 मेगावाट क्षमता जोड़ने का लक्ष्य रखा है और 2030 तक 50 गीगावॉट का लक्ष्य तय किया है। कर्ज का स्तर पहले 5.4 गुना से घटकर 4 गुना रह गया है। कंपनी 2030 तक 5 गीगावॉट पंप हाइड्रो स्टोरेज बनाएगी और बिजली बाजार में हिस्सेदारी बढ़ाएगी। जोखिमों में सोलर पैनल की कमी और हाइड्रो प्रोजेक्ट्स में देरी शामिल है।
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ALMM module supply constraints
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Operating Capacity
10.9 GW
+35% YoY
India's first and fastest renewable player to reach 10.9 GW operating capacity.
Greenfield Capacity Addition (FY24)
2,848 MW
+35% YoY
Accounted for over 15% of India's total renewable capacity addition in FY24.
Run-rate EBITDA
INR 10,462 crore
+30% YoY
Strong run-rate EBITDA supports deleveraging; net debt/run-rate EBITDA at 4x.
Merchant/C&I Capacity Mix
~10%
+5pp YoY
Planned increase in merchant and C&I exposure to capture higher margins.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
2030 capacity target revised to 50 GW
Revised the 2030 renewable energy capacity target from 45 GW to 50 GW, with 100% funding locked in from debt and equity.
NEW
Pumped hydro storage target of 5 GW by 2030
Targeting at least 5 GW of pumped hydro storage capacity by 2030, with first 500 MW project in Andhra Pradesh under construction and expected commissioning by FY27.
NEW
Merchant/C&I exposure to be ~10% of portfolio
Management indicated that merchant and C&I capacity will be about 10% of the portfolio mix, up from current ~5%.
UPDATED
FY25 capacity addition target of at least 6,000 MW
Management guided for greenfield capacity addition of at least 6,000 MW in FY25, with a run-rate of 6,000-8,000 MW per year going forward.
DROPPED
Execution capacity to exceed 5 GW from next year
The company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
DROPPED
Pumped storage project implementation to start next fiscal year
Management confirmed that pumped storage project implementation will begin in the next financial year, with one project in advanced stages.
DROPPED
Merchant portfolio to reach low teens by end of decade
Merchant capacity is expected to grow to low teens (as a percentage of total portfolio) by 2030, from current 3-5%.
NEW RISK
ALMM module supply constraints
ALMM regulations may restrict module imports, but management stated all FY25 requirements are fully locked in and de-risked.
NEW RISK
Execution risk in pumped hydro projects
Pumped hydro is a complex infrastructure project with longer timelines (3-3.5 years) and higher capital costs (INR 4.5-5 crore/MW).
NEW RISK
Merchant power price volatility
Increased merchant exposure to 10% exposes the portfolio to spot price fluctuations, though management sees strong demand tailwinds.
NEW RISK
Transmission evacuation delays
While management claims 100% transmission tie-ups for the pipeline, any delays in grid connectivity could impact project commissioning.
RISK GONE
Execution delays due to transmission and supply chain
Transmission evacuation readiness and supply chain constraints for long-lead items could delay capacity additions.
RISK GONE
ALMM policy impact on module costs
Implementation of ALMM from April 2024 may restrict procurement from China, potentially increasing module costs for new projects.
RISK GONE
Pumped storage project execution risks
Pumped storage projects have long gestation periods (5 years) and require clearances; past industry stalling poses a risk.
RISK GONE
Module price volatility affecting returns
While lower module prices improve returns, sustainability of current low prices is uncertain, impacting project economics.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
While lower module prices improve returns, sustainability of current low prices is uncertain, impacting project economics.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24
The company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
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Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for greenfield capacity addition of at least 6,000 MW in FY25, with a run-rate of 6,000-8,000 MW per year going forward.
ALMM regulations may restrict module imports, but management stated all FY25 requirements are fully locked in and de-risked.
View Risks →