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Extended monsoon causing construction delays
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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q2 FY25
Adani Green Energy delivered a robust Q2 FY25 with revenue rising 20% YoY to INR 4,836 crore and EBITDA up 20% YoY to INR 4,518 crore, driven by capacity additions and operational excellence.
bullish
high
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Adani Green Energy delivered a robust Q2 FY25 with revenue rising 20% YoY to INR 4,836 crore and EBITDA up 20% YoY to INR 4,518 crore, driven by capacity additions and operational excellence. Cash profits surged 27% YoY to INR 2,640 crore. The company added 2.9 GW of greenfield capacity over the past year, reaching 11.2 GW operating capacity. Key developments include the Khavda project (20 GW) with 2 GW solar operational, a 5 GW PPA with MSEDCL, and a first data center PPA with Google. Management reiterated the 6 GW capacity addition target for FY25, with one-third expected this quarter. Merchant realizations were strong, especially wind at INR 5.43/kWh. Battery storage cost declines present new opportunities. Risk: extended monsoon caused minor construction delays, but within planned buffers.
अडानी ग्रीन एनर्जी ने Q2 FY25 में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कमाई 20% बढ़कर 4,836 करोड़ रुपये हो गई, और मुनाफा (EBITDA) भी 20% बढ़कर 4,518 करोड़ रुपये रहा। यह बिजली उत्पादन क्षमता बढ़ाने और बेहतर संचालन से हुआ। नकद मुनाफा 27% बढ़कर 2,640 करोड़ रुपये हो गया। पिछले साल में 2.9 गीगावॉट नई क्षमता जोड़ी गई, अब कुल 11.2 गीगावॉट चालू है। खावड़ा परियोजना (20 गीगावॉट) में 2 गीगावॉट सौर बिजली चालू है। महाराष्ट्र सरकार से 5 गीगावॉट बिजली बेचने का समझौता और गूगल के साथ डेटा सेंटर के लिए पहला समझौता हुआ। कंपनी इस साल 6 गीगावॉट क्षमता जोड़ने का लक्ष्य रखती है, जिसमें एक तिहाई इस तिमाही में आएगी। बाजार में बिजली बेचने से अच्छी कमाई हुई, खासकर पवन ऊर्जा से 5.43 रुपये प्रति यूनिट। बैटरी स्टोरेज की लागत घटने से नए अवसर हैं। जोखिम: लंबे मानसून से निर्माण में थोड़ी देरी हुई, लेकिन योजना में इसका बफर था।
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Operating Capacity
11.2 GW
+2.9 GW YoY
Total operating capacity as of now, up from 8.3 GW a year ago.
Energy Sales
14.1 billion units
+20% YoY
Energy sales increased 20% year-on-year to 14.1 billion units.
Merchant Revenue
INR 1,070 crore
N/A
Merchant revenue for Q2 FY25 was INR 1,070 crore, reflecting strong market realizations.
Wind CUF (Khavda)
44%+
N/A
Wind turbines at Khavda achieved CUF north of 44% in the last two months, with full-year forecast above 55%.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Run-rate EBITDA of INR 16,000 crore post 6 GW addition
After adding 6 GW, the company expects a run-rate EBITDA in excess of INR 16,000 crore on an installed base of 17 GW.
NEW
Minimum 6 GW annual run-rate going forward
Beyond FY25, the company plans a minimum run-rate of 6 GW per year for capacity additions.
NEW
Google data center PPA commissioning in CY Q3 2025
The 61 MW PPA with Google is expected to start supplying power in calendar Q3 2025.
UPDATED
6 GW capacity addition in FY25
Management committed to adding 6 GW of renewable capacity in FY25, with one-third expected in Q3 and remainder by year-end.
DROPPED
50 GW target by 2030
Reiterated 50 GW capacity target by 2030, including 5 GW of pumped storage.
DROPPED
Portfolio borrowing cost to decline from 9.4%
CFO expects average portfolio interest rate to come down significantly from 9.4%, with new borrowings at 8.6%-8.9%.
DROPPED
15% merchant/C&I portfolio mix
Targeting 15% of portfolio from merchant and C&I sales by 2030.
NEW RISK
Extended monsoon causing construction delays
Monsoon extended by about a month, causing some delay in capacity addition, though within the 10% variation built into the construction S-curve.
NEW RISK
Evacuation infrastructure bottlenecks
While management claims de-risking for 50 GW, analysts questioned evacuation readiness for 7-8 GW; management acknowledged reliance on sister company and Power Grid projects.
NEW RISK
Minority interest and PAT dilution
Minority interest increased sequentially from INR 182 crore to INR 239 crore, impacting PAT attributable to shareholders, which fell from INR 372 crore to INR 276 crore YoY.
RISK GONE
Execution risk in pumped storage
Pumped storage CapEx is INR 4.5-5 crore/MW, but equipment is imported and supplier details undisclosed, posing supply chain risk.
RISK GONE
Dependence on promoter warrants for funding
Management stated no equity dilution needed, relying on promoter warrants and internal cash flows, which may be constrained if execution slips.
RISK GONE
Regulatory changes in solar imports
New import duty on solar glass may increase module costs, though management claims limited near-term impact due to ALMM exemptions.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24
Targeting 15% of portfolio from merchant and C&I sales by 2030.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
While lower module prices improve returns, sustainability of current low prices is uncertain, impacting project economics.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24
Reiterated 50 GW capacity target by 2030, including 5 GW of pumped storage.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q4 FY24
Revised the 2030 renewable energy capacity target from 45 GW to 50 GW, with 100% funding locked in from debt and equity.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24
The company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management committed to adding 6 GW of renewable capacity in FY25, with one-third expected in Q3 and remainder by year-end.
Monsoon extended by about a month, causing some delay in capacity addition, though within the 10% variation built into the construction S-curve.
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