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Adani Green Energy Limited — Q3 FY24
Adani Green Energy reported strong operational and financial performance for 9M FY24, with revenue from power supply up 57% to INR 5,794 crore and EBITDA up 52% to INR 5,412 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92%.
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Adani Green Energy reported strong operational and financial performance for 9M FY24, with revenue from power supply up 57% to INR 5,794 crore and EBITDA up 52% to INR 5,412 crore, maintaining an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92%. The company's operational capacity grew 16% to 8.4 GW, and sale of energy increased 59% to 16,293 million units, driven by improved capacity factors and greenfield additions. Management reiterated its 45 GW target by 2030, backed by a locked-in portfolio of 20.8 GW and a capital management framework including a INR 9,350 crore promoter warrant issue and a $3 billion construction financing facility. Key growth drivers include the Khavda mega project, hybrid capacity additions, and pumped storage expansion. Risks include execution delays due to transmission and supply chain constraints, and potential ALMM policy impacts on module costs.
आदानी ग्रीन एनर्जी ने वित्त वर्ष 2024 के 9 महीनों में शानदार कमाई की। बिजली बेचने से आय 57% बढ़कर 5,794 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। कंपनी का मुनाफा (EBITDA) 52% बढ़कर 5,412 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 92% का बेहतरीन मार्जिन दिखाता है। बिजली उत्पादन क्षमता 16% बढ़कर 8.4 गीगावॉट हो गई, और बिजली की बिक्री 59% बढ़कर 16,293 मिलियन यूनिट हो गई। कंपनी 2030 तक 45 गीगावॉट क्षमता का लक्ष्य बना रही है। इसके लिए 20.8 गीगावॉट का पोर्टफोलियो तैयार है और 9,350 करोड़ रुपये के वारंट जारी करने की योजना है। खावड़ा जैसे बड़े प्रोजेक्ट से वृद्धि होगी। लेकिन बिजली लाइनों और सप्लाई चेन में देरी से जोखिम है।
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Execution delays due to transmission and supply chain
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Operational Capacity
8.4 GW
+16% YoY
Operational capacity grew 16% YoY to 8.4 GW, with greenfield additions of 700 MW hybrid, 300 MW wind, and 150 MW solar.
Sale of Energy
16,293 MUs
+59% YoY
Sale of energy increased 59% to 16,293 million units, driven by capacity additions and improved capacity factors.
Wind Portfolio CF
32.2%
+510 bps YoY
Wind portfolio capacity factor improved by 510 bps to 32.2%, reflecting better wind conditions and asset performance.
Net Debt to Run Rate EBITDA
2.98x
-2.62x YoY
Net debt to run rate EBITDA improved from 5.6x to 2.98x, reflecting strong cash generation and capital management.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Capacity addition of at least 2 GW in Q4 FY24
Management guided for at least 2 GW capacity addition in the next quarter (Q4 FY24), with a target of 2-2.5 GW.
NEW
Execution capacity to exceed 5 GW from next year
The company aims to scale execution capacity to north of 5 GW from next fiscal year, up from the current ~2.5 GW.
NEW
Pumped storage project implementation to start next fiscal year
Management confirmed that pumped storage project implementation will begin in the next financial year, with one project in advanced stages.
NEW
Merchant portfolio to reach low teens by end of decade
Merchant capacity is expected to grow to low teens (as a percentage of total portfolio) by 2030, from current 3-5%.
DROPPED
FY2024 capacity addition of 2.8-3 GW
Management guided for 2.8 to 3 GW capacity addition in FY2024, with most commissioning in the second half. Funding is fully secured.
DROPPED
45 GW target by 2030
Adani Green reiterated its target to reach 45 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, with a mix of solar, wind, pumped hydro, and batteries.
DROPPED
Refinancing of RG-One bonds at similar cost
Management expects to refinance the $500 million RG-One bond through USD PP market at an effective cost similar to current AGEL Holdco cost of ~9.6%, with no material increase.
DROPPED
Pumped storage FID by end of FY2024
Management expects to take a final investment decision (FID) on a pumped storage project before the end of FY2024, with construction cycle of 27-33 months.
NEW RISK
Execution delays due to transmission and supply chain
Transmission evacuation readiness and supply chain constraints for long-lead items could delay capacity additions.
NEW RISK
ALMM policy impact on module costs
Implementation of ALMM from April 2024 may restrict procurement from China, potentially increasing module costs for new projects.
NEW RISK
Pumped storage project execution risks
Pumped storage projects have long gestation periods (5 years) and require clearances; past industry stalling poses a risk.
RISK GONE
Execution risk for H2 commissioning
With only 200 MW added in H1, the company needs to commission ~2.6 GW in H2 to meet its 2.8-3 GW target. Any delays in Khavda or module supply could cause slippage.
RISK GONE
ALMM compliance for imported modules
An analyst raised concerns about using Chinese modules (non-ALMM) for projects with SCOD near March 2024. Management clarified that current projects are exempt, but future projects may face restrictions.
RISK GONE
Refinancing risk for Holdco bond
The $750 million Holdco bond maturing in FY2025 is expected to be repaid from a group liquidity pool, but any disruption in group-level liquidity could create refinancing pressure.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for at least 2 GW capacity addition in the next quarter (Q4 FY24), with a target of 2-2.5 GW.
Transmission evacuation readiness and supply chain constraints for long-lead items could delay capacity additions.
View Risks →