NTPC Management Guidance Tracker
32 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 8 quarters.
Expansion
NTPC plans to award 11.2 GW of new thermal capacity over the next 12 months, with 50% standalone and 50% via JVs.
Q3 FY24Award 5.6 GW thermal capacity in H1 FY25ActiveOut of 16.8 GW planned, 5.6 GW will be tendered in Q1-Q2 FY25, including Singrauli, Sipat, and Darlipali.
Q4 FY24Thermal capacity ordering plan: 15.2 GW over FY25-FY27Active10.4 GW to be tendered in FY25, 3.2 GW in FY26, 1.6 GW in FY27. Includes Sipat, Darlipali, Meja, etc.
Q3 FY25Thermal capacity awards of 7.2 GW by FY27TrackedIncludes 2.4 GW to be awarded in Q4 FY25 and 4.8 GW in FY26-27, all brownfield.
Q2 FY26Nuclear project Mahi Banswara to be commissioned by 2032-33Tracked4x700 MW nuclear project with total capex of ~INR 50,000 crore; excavation contracts awarded, main packages expected this fiscal.
Q3 FY26Thermal awards target FY27: 4 GWTrackedNTPC plans to award 4 GW of thermal projects in FY27, including Lara-II, Jhabua, BRBCL, and Bhilai.
Growth
NTPC expects to commission 15 GW of renewable energy capacity by the end of FY26.
Q2 FY24Long-term renewable target of 60 GW by FY32TrackedNTPC aims to achieve 60 GW of renewable capacity by FY32.
Q3 FY24Coal production target of 34 MMT for FY24ActiveManagement confirmed achieving 27 MMT in 9M FY24 and expects to meet the full-year target of 34 MMT.
Q3 FY24Renewable capacity target of ~15 GW by FY26TrackedDespite delays, management reiterated the target of 15 GW operational renewable capacity by FY26.
Q4 FY24Renewable commissioning targets: 3 GW in FY25, 5 GW in FY26, 8 GW in FY27ActiveTotal 22.5 GW capacity addition planned over next three years including thermal, hydro, and renewable.
Q4 FY24Coal mining target: 50 MMT annual production in three yearsTrackedCaptive coal production expected to reach 50 million tonnes per annum within three years.
Q2 FY25RE capacity addition of 3 GW in FY25, 5 GW in FY26, 8 GW in FY27ActiveNTPC Green Energy will add 3 GW renewable capacity in FY25, 5 GW in FY26, and 8 GW in FY27, targeting 60 GW by FY32.
Q2 FY25Thermal capacity awards of 13.6 GW by FY27Active8.8 GW already bid out (award by Dec 2024), balance 4.8 GW in next two months; total 13.6 GW thermal capacity to be awarded by FY27.
Q2 FY25Coal production target of 67 MMT by FY29TrackedNTPC group coal production to increase from 40 MMT in FY25 to about 67 MMT by FY29.
Q3 FY25FY25 capacity addition target of 6,976 MWActiveIncludes 2,780 MW thermal, 250 MW hydro, and 3,946 MW renewable across group.
Q3 FY25NGEL capacity addition: 5 GW in FY26, 8 GW in FY27TrackedRenewable capacity additions guided for NTPC Green Energy Ltd.
Q4 FY25FY26 group capacity addition target of 11,806 MWActiveIncludes 3,518 MW thermal, 1,000 MW hydro, and 7,226 MW renewable. Standalone adds 2,019 MW.
Q4 FY25FY27 group capacity addition target of 9,904 MWTrackedComprises 1,460 MW thermal, 444 MW hydro, and 8,000 MW renewable.
Q4 FY25Captive coal production target of 45 MMT in FY26ActiveRising to 56 MMT and 60 MMT in subsequent years, with ~7% CAGR.
Q2 FY26Capacity addition target of 9,844 MW for FY26ActiveManagement confirmed on track to add 9,844 MW in FY26, with 5,359 MW already added in 7 months.
Q2 FY26Long-term capacity target of 244 GW by 2037TrackedRevised target from 130 GW to 149 GW by 2029 and 244 GW by 2037, requiring INR 7 lakh crore capex by 2032.
Q3 FY26Renewable capacity addition target FY26: 5 GWActiveNGEL targets 5 GW renewable capacity addition in FY26, with 2.5 GW expected in the next two months.
Q3 FY26Renewable capacity addition target FY27: 8 GWTrackedNGEL targets 8 GW capacity addition in FY27, with work already commenced on various plants.
Q3 FY26Thermal capacity addition: 6.5 GW over 3 yearsTrackedNTPC plans to add 6.5 GW of thermal capacity over FY26-28, including 2,780 MW in FY26, 1,600 MW in FY27, and 2,120 MW in FY28.
Capex
NTPC group CapEx target for FY24 is INR 28,373 crore, with H1 achieving 47%.
Q4 FY25Group CapEx of INR 55,920 crore in FY26TrackedRising to INR 97,363 crore in FY27 and INR 1,12,172 crore in FY28, totaling INR 2,65,455 crore over three years.
Q2 FY26Capex of INR 30,000 crore at NTPC Green in FY26ActiveNTPC Green plans to spend INR 30,000 crore in FY26, with INR 6,607 crore incurred in H1.
Margins
Full-year under-recovery expected at INR 400-450 crore, with reversal in Q4 as planned outages complete.
Q3 FY25Under-recovery to reduce to INR 250-300 Cr by Q4 FY25ActiveFixed cost under-recovery expected to improve further in Q4 due to lower outages.