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NTPC — Q3 FY24
NTPC reported a resilient Q3 FY24 with group PAT for 9M FY24 up 21% YoY to INR 14,842 crore, driven by higher generation (group generation up 7% to 315 BUs) and improved coal production (up 74% to 25.36 MMT).
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NTPC reported a resilient Q3 FY24 with group PAT for 9M FY24 up 21% YoY to INR 14,842 crore, driven by higher generation (group generation up 7% to 315 BUs) and improved coal production (up 74% to 25.36 MMT). The company plans to award 16.8 GW of new thermal capacity, with 5.6 GW to be tendered in H1 FY25, and targets 50 MTPA coal production in three years. Renewable pipeline stands at 22.7 GW, with 7.8 GW under construction. Management guided for under-recovery reversal in Q4 and expects INR 400-450 crore full-year under-recovery. Key risk: execution delays in renewable projects due to module supply and transmission constraints.
एनटीपीसी ने तीसरी तिमाही में मजबूत प्रदर्शन किया। चालू वित्त वर्ष के नौ महीनों में कंपनी का कुल मुनाफा 21% बढ़कर 14,842 करोड़ रुपये हो गया। इसकी वजह बिजली उत्पादन में 7% और कोयला उत्पादन में 74% की बढ़ोतरी है। कंपनी अगले तीन साल में कोयला उत्पादन 50 मिलियन टन प्रति वर्ष करने का लक्ष्य रखती है। नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा परियोजनाओं की क्षमता 22.7 गीगावॉट है, जिसमें से 7.8 गीगावॉट पर काम चल रहा है। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि चौथी तिमाही में घाटा कम होगा और पूरे साल का घाटा 400-450 करोड़ रुपये रहेगा। मुख्य जोखिम: नवीकरणीय परियोजनाओं में देरी, जो मॉड्यूल आपूर्ति और बिजली लाइनों की कमी के कारण हो सकती है।
Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Renewable execution delays
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Coal production (9M FY24)
25.36 MMT
+74% YoY
Highest ever coal production, driven by ramp-up of captive mines.
Group generation (9M FY24)
315 BUs
+7% YoY
Higher generation due to increased demand and lower fuel supply loss.
Renewable pipeline
22.7 GW
N/A
Includes 3.3 GW commissioned, 7.8 GW under construction, and 11.9 GW in pipeline.
Thermal capacity under construction
10 GW
N/A
Additional 16.8 GW to be awarded over next 2-3 years.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Coal production target of 34 MMT for FY24
Management confirmed achieving 27 MMT in 9M FY24 and expects to meet the full-year target of 34 MMT.
NEW
Under-recovery to reverse in Q4 FY24 to INR 400-450 crore
Full-year under-recovery expected at INR 400-450 crore, with reversal in Q4 as planned outages complete.
UPDATED
Award 5.6 GW thermal capacity in H1 FY25
Out of 16.8 GW planned, 5.6 GW will be tendered in Q1-Q2 FY25, including Singrauli, Sipat, and Darlipali.
UPDATED
Renewable capacity target of ~15 GW by FY26
Despite delays, management reiterated the target of 15 GW operational renewable capacity by FY26.
DROPPED
Long-term renewable target of 60 GW by FY32
NTPC aims to achieve 60 GW of renewable capacity by FY32.
DROPPED
Group CapEx target of INR 28,373 crore for FY24
NTPC group CapEx target for FY24 is INR 28,373 crore, with H1 achieving 47%.
NEW RISK
Transmission connectivity challenges
Analyst raised concern about transmission delays impacting renewable aspirations; management acknowledged minor delays but expects no material impact.
NEW RISK
Regulatory deferral volatility
Standalone profit before regulatory deferral declined YoY; management attributed to one-time accounting changes but could recur.
RISK GONE
Coal inventory tightness at non-pithead plants
Coal stock at pithead stations is low, though overall stock is 8.5 days; receipts expected to improve.
RISK GONE
Pumped storage project delays
THDC pump hydro project faced last-minute issues; first unit now expected by Jan/Feb 2024.
RISK GONE
Regulatory uncertainty on grid code
New grid code may impact power sales; NTPC is in dialogue with regulator on concerns.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Out of 16.8 GW planned, 5.6 GW will be tendered in Q1-Q2 FY25, including Singrauli, Sipat, and Darlipali.
Module supply issues have delayed renewable commissioning; only 1 GW expected by March 2024 out of 7.8 GW under construction.
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