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NTPC — Q4 FY24
NTPC reported a solid FY24 with standalone PAT of INR 18,079 crores (+5% YoY) and group PAT of INR 21,332 crores (+25% YoY), driven by higher generation (422 BU, +6% YoY) and strong subsidiary/JV performance.
bullish
high
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NTPC reported a solid FY24 with standalone PAT of INR 18,079 crores (+5% YoY) and group PAT of INR 21,332 crores (+25% YoY), driven by higher generation (422 BU, +6% YoY) and strong subsidiary/JV performance. Thermal capacity additions remain on track with 15.2 GW planned for near-term ordering, while renewable pipeline stands at 22 GW (3.6 GW commissioned, 8.4 GW under execution). Management guided for 3 GW renewable commissioning in FY25 and 5 GW in FY26. The IPO of NTPC Green Energy Ltd is planned for Oct-Nov 2024. Key risk: execution delays in renewable projects due to land and module procurement issues, though largely addressed.
एनटीपीसी ने वित्त वर्ष 2024 में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी का शुद्ध लाभ (PAT) 18,079 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो पिछले साल से 5% ज्यादा है। पूरे समूह का लाभ 21,332 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 25% बढ़ा। इसकी वजह ज्यादा बिजली उत्पादन (422 बिलियन यूनिट, 6% ज्यादा) और सहायक कंपनियों का अच्छा प्रदर्शन है। कोयला बिजली परियोजनाओं के लिए 15.2 गीगावॉट की योजना है। नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा (सौर-हवा) में 22 गीगावॉट का पाइपलाइन है, जिसमें 3.6 गीगावॉट चालू है और 8.4 गीगावॉट बन रहा है। कंपनी वित्त वर्ष 2025 में 3 गीगावॉट और 2026 में 5 गीगावॉट नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा चालू करेगी। एनटीपीसी ग्रीन एनर्जी का आईपीओ अक्टूबर-नवंबर 2024 में आएगा। जोखिम: जमीन और सोलर पैनल खरीद में देरी, लेकिन ज्यादातर समाधान हो चुका है।
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Renewable execution delays
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Group Generation
422 BU
+6% YoY
Group gross generation increased from 399 BU in FY23 to 422 BU in FY24.
Coal PLF
77.25%
+8pp vs national avg
NTPC's coal plant load factor outperformed national average of 69.49%.
Captive Coal Production
34.39 MMT
+48% YoY
Captive coal production rose from 23.20 MMT in FY23 to 34.39 MMT in FY24.
Renewable Pipeline
22 GW
N/A
Total renewable capacity visible: 3.6 GW commissioned, 8.4 GW under execution, ~11 GW in pipeline.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Thermal capacity ordering plan: 15.2 GW over FY25-FY27
10.4 GW to be tendered in FY25, 3.2 GW in FY26, 1.6 GW in FY27. Includes Sipat, Darlipali, Meja, etc.
NEW
Renewable commissioning targets: 3 GW in FY25, 5 GW in FY26, 8 GW in FY27
Total 22.5 GW capacity addition planned over next three years including thermal, hydro, and renewable.
NEW
NGEL IPO planned for October-November 2024
DRHP filing post-June 2024; NTPC to remain holding company post-IPO.
UPDATED
Coal mining target: 50 MMT annual production in three years
Captive coal production expected to reach 50 million tonnes per annum within three years.
DROPPED
Award 5.6 GW thermal capacity in H1 FY25
Out of 16.8 GW planned, 5.6 GW will be tendered in Q1-Q2 FY25, including Singrauli, Sipat, and Darlipali.
DROPPED
Renewable capacity target of ~15 GW by FY26
Despite delays, management reiterated the target of 15 GW operational renewable capacity by FY26.
DROPPED
Under-recovery to reverse in Q4 FY24 to INR 400-450 crore
Full-year under-recovery expected at INR 400-450 crore, with reversal in Q4 as planned outages complete.
NEW RISK
Under-recovery from disallowances
INR 776 crores under-recovery in FY24 due to lower availability at Barh and Barauni plants; though management expects reduction.
NEW RISK
Dividend from subsidiaries declined
Dividend from JVs and subsidiaries fell from INR 2,336 crores in FY23 to INR 1,630 crores in FY24 due to retained earnings for reinvestment.
NEW RISK
PPA availability for new thermal capacity
Out of 15.2 GW planned, only 8 GW has PPAs signed; remaining 7 GW needs tie-up with states/ministry.
RISK GONE
Transmission connectivity challenges
Analyst raised concern about transmission delays impacting renewable aspirations; management acknowledged minor delays but expects no material impact.
RISK GONE
Regulatory deferral volatility
Standalone profit before regulatory deferral declined YoY; management attributed to one-time accounting changes but could recur.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Despite delays, management reiterated the target of 15 GW operational renewable capacity by FY26.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
10.4 GW to be tendered in FY25, 3.2 GW in FY26, 1.6 GW in FY27.
Commissioning of renewable projects slower than guided due to module import clearance delays and land acquisition issues.
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