Bajaj Finance Management Guidance Tracker
28 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 7 quarters.
Growth
Management raised full-year AUM growth guidance from 27-29% to 29-31%, driven by strong Q1 momentum.
Q1 FY24New car financing to reach INR 200-250 crore per month by March 2024TrackedNew car financing business, launched in 80 cities, is expected to achieve monthly disbursements of INR 200-250 crore by exit of FY24.
Q3 FY24Rural B2C growth slowed to 10%ActiveRural B2C portfolio growth was deliberately reduced to 10% in Q3 from 26% in Q1, reflecting risk actions to control elevated delinquencies.
Q4 FY24AUM growth of 26%-28% in FY25TrackedManagement expects AUM to grow 26%-28% in FY25, supported by newly launched secured businesses like LAP, car finance, and tractor finance.
Q2 FY25AUM growth of 27-28% for FY25TrackedFull-year AUM growth guided at 27-28%, with new businesses contributing 2-3%.
Q2 FY25New customer addition of 15-16 million in FY25TrackedManagement expects to add 15-16 million new customers in FY25, marginally higher than last year's 14 million.
Q3 FY25FY26 balance sheet growth of ~25%TrackedManagement targets consolidated balance sheet growth of around 25% in FY26, with profit growth of 22-23%.
Q3 FY25Rural B2C business to grow 20-23% in FY26TrackedAfter returning to growth mode, the rural B2C segment is expected to grow 20-23% in the next fiscal year.
Q4 FY25AUM growth of 24-25% in FY26TrackedAided by new business lines launched in the last 2-3 years, with a focus on credit quality first.
Margins
Full-year credit cost expected to be range-bound between 155-165 bps, including 6-8 bps from model redevelopment.
Q1 FY24NIM compression of 10-15 bps in Q2 and Q3ActiveNet interest margin expected to compress by 10-15 bps each in Q2 and Q3 due to repricing of borrowings.
Q2 FY24NIM compression of 25-30 bps expected for full yearActiveManagement guided for another 25-30 basis points of NIM compression over the remainder of FY24, driven by rising cost of funds and competitive pressure on yields.
Q2 FY24ROA to sustain at 5% on exit basisTrackedDespite NIM compression, the company expects to sustain a return on assets of 5% on an exit basis for FY24, supported by operating leverage.
Q3 FY24Credit cost guidance of 175-185 bpsActiveManagement expects annualized loan losses to average AUM to remain in the 175-185 basis points range, consistent with pre-COVID levels.
Q4 FY24NIM compression of 30-40 bps over next two quartersActiveNet interest margin is expected to moderate by 30-40 bps from current levels due to rising cost of funds and shift to secured assets, then stabilize.
Q4 FY24OpEx-to-income improvement of 20-40 bpsActiveOperating expense to net interest income ratio is expected to improve by 20-40 bps from current levels as the company moves to consolidation.
Q2 FY25FY25 credit cost guidance revised to ~2.05%ActiveNet loan loss to average assets expected at 2.00-2.05% for FY25, up from earlier 1.75-1.85%.
Q3 FY25Q4 FY25 credit cost guidance of 2.00-2.05%ActiveManagement expects loan loss to average AUF to decline to 2.00-2.05% in Q4, from 2.16% in Q3, driven by portfolio pruning and improving collection efficiency.
Q3 FY25FY26 credit cost below 2%TrackedIf Q4 credit cost lands in the guided range, management expects FY26 credit cost to be sub-2%, barring significant macro deterioration.
Q4 FY25Credit cost corridor of 185-195 bps for FY26TrackedLoan loss to average AUM expected to improve from FY25 levels as early vintage metrics improve.
Q4 FY25OPEX to NTI improvement of 40-50 bps in FY26TrackedDriven by FinAI transformation and productivity initiatives, including fixed-term contract conversions.
Expansion
The microfinance pilot launched in 12 villages will scale to 100 locations by March 2024, with a target of 300 villages by March 2025.
Q2 FY25Non-Bajaj Auto two-wheeler AUM to replace Bajaj Auto AUM by FY27TrackedNon-Bajaj Auto two-wheeler financing will scale to 720,000 accounts in FY26, fully replacing Bajaj Auto AUM by end-FY26/FY27.
Other
Board approved raising ₹10,000 crore, comprising ₹8,800 crore through QIP and ₹1,200 crore preferential allotment to Bajaj Finserv, to support growth.
Q3 FY24KFS compliance for all products by March 2024ActiveThe company plans to implement Key Fact Statement (KFS) in vernacular languages and digital signatures for all products by March 2024.
Q4 FY24Credit costs within 175-185 bps corridorTrackedLoan loss to average AUM is expected to remain in the 175-185 bps range, in line with pre-COVID levels adjusted for regulatory changes.