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BAJFINANCE Financial Services 16 Oct 2024

Bajaj Finance Ltd — Q2 FY25

Bajaj Finance reported a mixed Q2 FY25 with AUM growth of 29% YoY and PAT up 13% to INR 4,014 crore, but elevated credit costs dampened profitability.

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PAT ₹4,014 Cr +13%
EBITDA Margin
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Read Time 1 min read

✓ Verified against BSE filing

2-Minute Summary

✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

Bajaj Finance reported a mixed Q2 FY25 with AUM growth of 29% YoY and PAT up 13% to INR 4,014 crore, but elevated credit costs dampened profitability. Loan losses remained high at 2.16% of average assets, driven by higher flow rates across retail and SME portfolios, though Stage 2/3 additions moderated sequentially. Management guided FY25 credit costs to ~2.05%, above the earlier 1.75-1.85% range, but expects improvement to 2% by Q4. NIMs have stabilized, and cost of funds appears to have peaked. The company added 4 million new customers and expects to cross 100 million total customers by year-end. Festive season demand is tracking well with 21% volume growth. Key risk: credit normalization may take longer if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or if unsecured lending stress persists.

Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks4 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Claim Ledger 68% answered

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12 analyst questions audited, 2 evaded or deflected.

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Promises 2 promises

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0 delivered, 0 close, 2 missed.

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!Risks 4 risks

Risk Intelligence

Elevated credit costs may persist

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Quarter Snapshot

AUM INR 3,74,000 crore
+29% YoY

Consolidated AUM grew 29% year-on-year, driven by strong volumes and new business contributions.

New Loans Booked 9.7 million
+14% YoY

Loan bookings increased 14% YoY to 9.7 million, reflecting robust demand across segments.

Customer Franchise 92.1 million
+4 million QoQ

Customer base grew to 92.1 million, with 4 million new customers added in Q2.

Gross Loan Loss to Average AUF 2.16%
+4bps QoQ

Credit costs remained elevated at 2.16%, with management expecting a decline to ~2% by Q4.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY25 vs Q4 FY24
3 new guidance3 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
FY25 credit cost guidance revised to ~2.05%

Net loan loss to average assets expected at 2.00-2.05% for FY25, up from earlier 1.75-1.85%.

NEW
New customer addition of 15-16 million in FY25

Management expects to add 15-16 million new customers in FY25, marginally higher than last year's 14 million.

NEW
Non-Bajaj Auto two-wheeler AUM to replace Bajaj Auto AUM by FY27

Non-Bajaj Auto two-wheeler financing will scale to 720,000 accounts in FY26, fully replacing Bajaj Auto AUM by end-FY26/FY27.

UPDATED
AUM growth of 27-28% for FY25

Full-year AUM growth guided at 27-28%, with new businesses contributing 2-3%.

DROPPED
NIM compression of 30-40 bps over next two quarters

Net interest margin is expected to moderate by 30-40 bps from current levels due to rising cost of funds and shift to secured assets, then stabilize.

DROPPED
OpEx-to-income improvement of 20-40 bps

Operating expense to net interest income ratio is expected to improve by 20-40 bps from current levels as the company moves to consolidation.

DROPPED
Credit costs within 175-185 bps corridor

Loan loss to average AUM is expected to remain in the 175-185 bps range, in line with pre-COVID levels adjusted for regulatory changes.

NEW RISK
Elevated credit costs may persist

Credit costs remain above long-term averages; management is cautiously optimistic but normalization may take longer if macro conditions worsen.

NEW RISK
Unsecured lending stress from multiple loans

Clients with 3+ live unsecured loans show higher default propensity; supply-side slowdown may not fully mitigate risk.

NEW RISK
Loss of Bajaj Auto captive financing business

Bajaj Auto's captive financing unit is taking over two-wheeler/three-wheeler financing, impacting AUM and profitability in the near term.

NEW RISK
Regulatory and compliance risks

Management declined to comment on regulatory matters; ongoing investments in compliance may not fully mitigate future actions.

RISK GONE
RBI restrictions on eCOM and Insta EMI Card not yet lifted

The embargo on two products continues to impact loan bookings and AUM growth; timing of removal is uncertain.

RISK GONE
Rural B2C credit stress persists

Rural B2C business continues to show elevated loan losses, leading to slower growth; management has slowed AUM growth to 6% but risk remains.

RISK GONE
Intense competition in mortgage space pressuring BHFL margins

Management noted 'madness' in mortgage competition, with home loans being distributed at 8.4-8.5% against borrowing costs of 8.3%, squeezing NIMs.

RISK GONE
Potential ROE drag from excess capital

Management acknowledged that ROE in FY25 may marginally decline due to the recent capital raise, as excess capital sits on the balance sheet.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

NIM compression of 30-40 bps over next two quarters

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

Net interest margin is expected to moderate by 30-40 bps from current levels due to rising cost of funds and shift to secured assets, then stabilize.

Rural B2C credit stress persists

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24

Rural B2C business continues to show elevated loan losses, leading to slower growth; management has slowed AUM growth to 6% but risk remains.

NIM compression from rising cost of funds

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Cost of funds is expected to rise as low-cost borrowings mature and are replaced at higher rates, compressing NIM by 25-30 bps for the full year.

RBI restrictions on eCOM and Insta EMI Card not yet lifted

Mentioned in Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24

The embargo on two products continues to impact loan bookings and AUM growth; timing of removal is uncertain.

Rising industry leverage in small-ticket loans

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Management flagged that customers with multiple small-ticket loans (<₹50,000) show higher imprudence and default rates, prompting portfolio cuts of 8-14%.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance FY25 credit cost guidance revised to ~2.05%

Net loan loss to average assets expected at 2.00-2.05% for FY25, up from earlier 1.75-1.85%.

Top risk Elevated credit costs may persist

Credit costs remain above long-term averages; management is cautiously optimistic but normalization may take longer if macro conditions worsen.

View Risks →