Aditya Birla Capital Management Guidance Tracker
47 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Growth
Management expects to double the combined NBFC and housing finance loan book over the next three years, implying ~25% CAGR.
Q2 FY24NBFC book to double in three years, ROA to 3%TrackedManagement reiterated guidance to double NBFC loan book in three years and improve ROA to 3% through product mix shift and margin improvement.
Q3 FY24Double NBFC portfolio in three yearsTrackedManagement expressed confidence in doubling the NBFC loan portfolio over the next three years, leveraging Udyog Plus, ABG ecosystem, and branch expansion.
Q4 FY24Double March 2023 loan portfolio by March 2026TrackedManagement remains confident of doubling the March 2023 NBFC loan portfolio by March 2026, implying a CAGR of ~26%.
Q4 FY24Life insurance top-line CAGR >20% over 3 yearsTrackedLife insurance business aims to grow top line at a CAGR of more than 20% over the next three years, with VNB margin in 18%-20% range.
Q1 FY25NBFC portfolio to grow at 25% CAGR over 2-3 yearsTrackedManagement reiterated confidence in achieving 25% compounded annual growth in NBFC loan portfolio over the next 2-3 years.
Q2 FY25NBFC portfolio CAGR of 25% over 2-3 yearsTrackedManagement reiterated confidence in growing the overall NBFC loan portfolio at a CAGR of 25% over the next two to three years.
Q2 FY25HFC portfolio to double in 18-24 monthsTrackedManagement guided that the housing finance portfolio is on track to double over the next 18-24 months, supported by digital and distribution investments.
Q3 FY25HFC ROA target of 2-2.1% in 18-24 monthsTrackedHousing finance aims for ROA of 2-2.1% as operating leverage improves with scale.
Q4 FY25NBFC portfolio CAGR of 25% over three yearsTrackedManagement expects to double the NBFC loan book over the next three years, implying a CAGR of ~25%.
Q4 FY25Life insurance individual FYP CAGR of 20%-25% over three yearsTrackedLife insurance business targets 20%-25% CAGR in individual first-year premium over the next three years.
Q1 FY26Life insurance individual FYP growth of 20%-25% for next 3 yearsTrackedLife insurance business targets individual first year premium growth of 20% to 25% annually over the next three years.
Q2 FY26HFC ROA target of 2%-2.2% in 6-8 quartersTrackedHousing finance business aims to achieve ROA of 2%-2.2% over the next six to eight quarters, driven by operating leverage.
Q3 FY26NBFC loan book growth of 24-25%ActiveManagement expects to double the NBFC loan book in three years, implying ~25% CAGR.
Q3 FY26Life insurance individual FYP CAGR of 20%+TrackedLife insurance business targets individual first year premium CAGR of 20%+ over the next three years.
Q3 FY26Double life insurance VNB in three yearsTrackedManagement aims to double absolute net VNB in three years while expanding VNB margins above 18%.
Q4 FY26HFC AUM target of INR 1 lakh crore in 24-30 monthsTrackedAditya Birla Housing Finance aims to achieve AUM of INR 1 lakh crore within the next 24 to 30 months, supported by branch expansion and digital initiatives.
Q4 FY26Life insurance individual FYP CAGR of 20%+ for next 3 yearsTrackedAditya Birla Sun Life Insurance targets a CAGR of over 20% in individual first year premium over the next three years, while maintaining VNB margins at 18%-20%.
Margins
NBFC net interest margin is targeted to reach 7.5% over the next 2-3 years, driven by product mix shift towards retail and SME.
Q1 FY24Housing finance NIM range of 4.7%-5%ActiveHousing finance NIM is expected to remain range-bound between 4.7% and 5% as cost of borrowings may increase.
Q1 FY24Life insurance net VNB margin improvementActiveLife insurance net VNB margin improved to 11.8% in Q1 from 2.5% last year, with continued focus on product mix and productivity.
Q2 FY24Life insurance VNB margin of 23%+ for FY24TrackedKamlesh Rao guided for net VNB margin of 23%+ for full year FY24, consistent with last year's exit margin.
Q2 FY24Health insurance combined ratio to normalize in Q3ActiveMayank Bathwal expects combined ratio to normalize in Q3 FY24 as seasonality effects from group business growth subside.
Q3 FY24NBFC credit loss to remain at ~1.5%ActiveManagement expects total credit loss in the NBFC portfolio to remain at similar levels (1.5% in Q3) going forward.
Q3 FY24Health insurance profit in Q4, full-year loss lower than FY23ActiveHealth insurance expects a profit in Q4 and full-year FY24 loss to be lower than last year, with combined ratio improving.
Q4 FY24NBFC credit cost within 1.5%ActiveCredit cost for NBFC businesses is guided to be contained within 1.5% going forward.
Q4 FY24Health insurance combined ratio of 100% by FY26TrackedHealth insurance business targets a combined ratio of 100% by FY2026, improving from 110% in FY24.
Q1 FY25Life insurance VNB margin guidance of 18-20% for FY25TrackedDespite Q1 VNB margin of 6.5%, management expects full-year VNB margins to be in the range of 18-20%.
Q1 FY25Health insurance combined ratio target of 100% by FY26TrackedHealth insurance business guided to achieve a combined ratio of 100% by FY26, improving from 112% in Q1 FY25.
Q1 FY25NBFC credit cost guidance of 1.5%ActiveManagement stated that credit cost for NBFC remains well within the stated guidance of 1.5%.
Q2 FY25Life insurance VNB margin of 17-18% for FY25TrackedDespite H1 VNB margin of 7.4%, management expects full-year VNB margin to be in the 17-18% range, driven by product mix optimization and agency channel growth.
Q2 FY25Credit cost guidance of ~1.5% for NBFCActiveManagement expects NBFC credit cost to remain range-bound around 1.5%, with current levels at 1.25%.
Q3 FY25Life Insurance VNB margin of 17-18% for FY25ActiveManagement expects full-year VNB margin to reach 17-18%, driven by product repricing and cost efficiencies.
Q3 FY25NBFC credit cost below 1.5%ActiveCredit cost guidance maintained at below 1.5%, with Q3 at 1.36%.
Q4 FY25HFC ROA target of 2%-2.2% in 8-10 quartersTrackedHousing finance aims to achieve ROA of 2%-2.2% within 8-10 quarters, driven by operating leverage.
Q4 FY25Health insurance combined ratio below 100% at earliestTrackedHealth insurance aims to achieve combined ratio below 100% as per old accounting norms, and as per new norms shortly.
Q1 FY26NBFC credit cost to remain around 1.3% for FY26ActiveManagement expects credit cost for the NBFC segment to remain in the similar range of 1.3% for the full fiscal year.
Q1 FY26HFC ROA target of 2%-2.2% over next 3-8 quartersTrackedHousing finance company aims to achieve ROA between 2% and 2.2% over the next three to eight quarters.
Q1 FY26Life insurance net VNB margin to expand to 18%+ for FY26TrackedLife insurance business maintains guidance to expand net VNB margins to 18%+ for the current fiscal year.
Q2 FY26NBFC credit cost to remain at 1.2%-1.3% in FY26ActiveManagement expects credit cost to stay in the 1.2%-1.3% range for the full year, supported by improving asset quality.
Q2 FY26Life insurance net VNB margin above 18% in FY26TrackedDespite GST exemption impact, management maintains guidance of net VNB margin exceeding 18% for FY26.
Q2 FY26Health insurance combined ratio improvement in FY26TrackedHealth insurance business expects to improve combined ratio from 105% in previous year to below 105% in FY26.
Q3 FY26NBFC ROA expansion to ~2.5%TrackedNBFC ROA (ex-labor code impact at 2.28%) is expected to expand to ~2.5% in the next 4-5 quarters.
Q4 FY26HFC ROA guidance of 2.1%-2.2% for FY27TrackedHousing finance expects ROA in the range of 2.1% to 2.2% for FY27, driven by operating leverage and stable credit costs.
Q4 FY26NBFC credit cost guidance of 1.1%-1.2%ActiveNBFC expects credit cost to remain in the range of 1.1% to 1.2% even as unsecured book grows, supported by a predominantly secured portfolio.