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ABCAPITAL Diversified 22 Oct 2024

Aditya Birla Capital Limited — Q2 FY25

Aditya Birla Capital reported a strong Q2 FY25 with consolidated PAT of INR 1,001 crore (up 42% YoY), including a one-time gain of INR 167 crore from the sale of its broking subsidiary.

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Revenue ₹12,007 Cr +36%
EBITDA
PAT ₹1,001 Cr +42%
EBITDA Margin
Duration
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Aditya Birla Capital reported a strong Q2 FY25 with consolidated PAT of INR 1,001 crore (up 42% YoY), including a one-time gain of INR 167 crore from the sale of its broking subsidiary. Revenue grew 36% YoY to INR 12,007 crore. The NBFC portfolio grew 23% YoY to INR 1.15 trillion, with credit cost improving to 1.25% (down 18 bps QoQ). The housing finance business saw AUM surge 51% YoY to INR 23,236 crore, driven by record disbursements. Asset management AUM reached INR 3.8 trillion, with SIP flows up 47% YoY to INR 1,428 crore. Life insurance VNB margin was 7.4% in H1, with management guiding to 17-18% for the full year. Health insurance GWP grew 39% YoY. Key risks include potential margin pressure from new surrender regulations in life insurance and elevated competitive intensity in lending. Management remains confident in achieving 25% CAGR in NBFC portfolio over 2-3 years.

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Quarter Snapshot

NBFC Credit Cost 1.25%
-18 bps QoQ

Credit cost improved sequentially, well within the stated guidance of 1.5%.

HFC AUM Growth INR 23,236 crore
+51% YoY

Housing finance portfolio grew strongly, driven by record quarterly disbursements of INR 4,010 crore.

Monthly SIP Flows INR 1,428 crore
+47% YoY

SIP inflows in September 2024 increased sharply, reflecting strong retail investor interest.

Life Insurance VNB Margin (H1) 7.4%
N/A

VNB margin for H1 FY25 was impacted by higher ULIP mix and upfront investments; full-year guidance is 17-18%.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY25 vs Q1 FY25
1 new guidance1 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
HFC portfolio to double in 18-24 months

Management guided that the housing finance portfolio is on track to double over the next 18-24 months, supported by digital and distribution investments.

UPDATED
NBFC portfolio CAGR of 25% over 2-3 years

Management reiterated confidence in growing the overall NBFC loan portfolio at a CAGR of 25% over the next two to three years.

UPDATED
Life insurance VNB margin of 17-18% for FY25

Despite H1 VNB margin of 7.4%, management expects full-year VNB margin to be in the 17-18% range, driven by product mix optimization and agency channel growth.

UPDATED
Credit cost guidance of ~1.5% for NBFC

Management expects NBFC credit cost to remain range-bound around 1.5%, with current levels at 1.25%.

DROPPED
Health insurance combined ratio target of 100% by FY26

Health insurance business guided to achieve a combined ratio of 100% by FY26, improving from 112% in Q1 FY25.

NEW RISK
Life insurance VNB margin guidance may be optimistic

Analyst questioned the feasibility of achieving 17-18% VNB margin in H2 given H1 was only 7.4%, with ULIP mix high and new surrender regulations effective October 1.

NEW RISK
NBFC margin compression from product mix shift

NIM declined sequentially due to increasing share of secured loans (74% of portfolio), which carry lower yields. Recovery may take a few quarters.

NEW RISK
Regulatory scrutiny on aggressive housing loan growth

Analyst raised concerns about RBI's stance on aggressive lending in housing; management denied any direct communication but acknowledged industry-wide caution.

NEW RISK
Provision coverage ratio decline in NBFC

PCR in NBFC declined to 46% (secured segment to ~30%) due to product mix shift, which could leave less buffer if stress emerges.

RISK GONE
Life insurance margin compression from regulatory changes

New surrender value regulations could impact traditional product margins by 150-200 bps, though management expects to mitigate through commission realignment.

RISK GONE
Unsecured loan asset quality pressure

Stage 3 in unsecured business loans inched up due to denominator effect; management noted it is stable but remains a watch area.

RISK GONE
NBFC ROA target of 3% may be delayed

Current ROA of 2.41% is below the medium-term target of 2.7-3%, and product mix shift could delay achievement.

RISK GONE
Banca channel growth dependency

Life insurance growth was impacted by muted performance from one banca partner; new tie-ups may take time to scale.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Health insurance combined ratio target of 100% by FY26

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

Health insurance business guided to achieve a combined ratio of 100% by FY26, improving from 112% in Q1 FY25.

Life insurance margin compression from regulatory changes

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

New surrender value regulations could impact traditional product margins by 150-200 bps, though management expects to mitigate through commission realignment.

NBFC book to double in three years, ROA to 3%

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Management reiterated guidance to double NBFC loan book in three years and improve ROA to 3% through product mix shift and margin improvement.

Unsecured loan asset quality pressure

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

Stage 3 in unsecured business loans inched up due to denominator effect; management noted it is stable but remains a watch area.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance NBFC portfolio CAGR of 25% over 2-3 years

Management reiterated confidence in growing the overall NBFC loan portfolio at a CAGR of 25% over the next two to three years.

Top risk Life insurance VNB margin guidance may be optimistic

Analyst questioned the feasibility of achieving 17-18% VNB margin in H2 given H1 was only 7.4%, with ULIP mix high and new surrender regulations ef...

View Risks →