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ABCAPITAL Diversified 31 Jan 2025

Aditya Birla Capital Limited — Q3 FY25

Aditya Birla Capital reported a mixed Q3 FY25 with consolidated PAT declining 3% YoY to INR 708 crore, while revenue grew 10% to INR 10,949 crore.

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Revenue ₹10,949 Cr +10%
EBITDA
PAT ₹708 Cr -3%
EBITDA Margin
Duration
Read Time 1 min read

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2-Minute Summary

✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

Aditya Birla Capital reported a mixed Q3 FY25 with consolidated PAT declining 3% YoY to INR 708 crore, while revenue grew 10% to INR 10,949 crore. The NBFC business saw calibrated growth, shifting towards secured loans (74% of portfolio) amid macro headwinds, with credit cost at 1.36%. Housing finance continued strong momentum, with AUM surging 62% YoY to INR 26,714 crore and disbursements hitting a record. Life insurance VNB margin expanded to 10.8% in 9M FY25, with management guiding for 17-18% by year-end. Health insurance GWP grew 39% in 9M FY25, with combined ratio improving to 114%. Key risks include margin compression from product mix shift in NBFC and potential impact of surrender value regulations on life insurance margins. Management remains cautiously optimistic, focusing on quality growth and digital initiatives.

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Risk Intelligence

Margin compression from product mix shift in NBFC

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Quarter Snapshot

HFC AUM Growth INR 26,714 Cr
+62% YoY

Housing finance AUM grew 62% year-on-year, driven by record disbursements and digital platform adoption.

Life Insurance VNB Margin (9M FY25) 10.8%
+340bps sequentially

VNB margin expanded from 7.4% in H1 to 10.8% in 9M, with guidance of 17-18% for full year.

Health Insurance GWP Growth (9M FY25) INR 3,505 Cr
+46% YoY

Gross written premium grew 46% YoY under old accounting, driven by retail franchise and digital channels.

ABCD App Customer Acquisition 4.1M
since April 2024 launch

D2C platform ABCD acquired over 4.1 million customers since launch, with 2 million UPI handles created.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q3 FY25 vs Q2 FY25
1 new guidance1 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
Amalgamation of Aditya Birla Finance with ABCL by March 2025

The amalgamation is expected to be completed by 31st March 2025, subject to NCLT approval.

UPDATED
Life Insurance VNB margin of 17-18% for FY25

Management expects full-year VNB margin to reach 17-18%, driven by product repricing and cost efficiencies.

UPDATED
NBFC credit cost below 1.5%

Credit cost guidance maintained at below 1.5%, with Q3 at 1.36%.

UPDATED
HFC ROA target of 2-2.1% in 18-24 months

Housing finance aims for ROA of 2-2.1% as operating leverage improves with scale.

DROPPED
NBFC portfolio CAGR of 25% over 2-3 years

Management reiterated confidence in growing the overall NBFC loan portfolio at a CAGR of 25% over the next two to three years.

NEW RISK
Impact of surrender value regulations on life insurance margins

New surrender guidelines and product repricing caused timing losses in Q3, though management expects recovery in Q4.

NEW RISK
Slowdown in NBFC disbursements due to cautious stance

Disbursements decelerated in Q3, particularly in consumer loans, as management dialed down unsecured lending.

NEW RISK
Potential impact of rate cuts on HFC margins

Analyst raised concern about margin risk from rate cuts; management noted 95% variable rate assets and diversified liabilities.

RISK GONE
Life insurance VNB margin guidance may be optimistic

Analyst questioned the feasibility of achieving 17-18% VNB margin in H2 given H1 was only 7.4%, with ULIP mix high and new surrender regulations effective October 1.

RISK GONE
Regulatory scrutiny on aggressive housing loan growth

Analyst raised concerns about RBI's stance on aggressive lending in housing; management denied any direct communication but acknowledged industry-wide caution.

RISK GONE
Provision coverage ratio decline in NBFC

PCR in NBFC declined to 46% (secured segment to ~30%) due to product mix shift, which could leave less buffer if stress emerges.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Health insurance combined ratio target of 100% by FY26

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

Health insurance business guided to achieve a combined ratio of 100% by FY26, improving from 112% in Q1 FY25.

NBFC portfolio to grow at 25% CAGR over 2-3 years

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY24

Management reiterated confidence in growing the overall NBFC loan portfolio at a CAGR of 25% over the next two to three years.

Life insurance margin compression from regulatory changes

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

New surrender value regulations could impact traditional product margins by 150-200 bps, though management expects to mitigate through commission realignment.

NBFC book to double in three years, ROA to 3%

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Management reiterated guidance to double NBFC loan book in three years and improve ROA to 3% through product mix shift and margin improvement.

Unsecured loan asset quality pressure

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

Stage 3 in unsecured business loans inched up due to denominator effect; management noted it is stable but remains a watch area.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Life Insurance VNB margin of 17-18% for FY25

Management expects full-year VNB margin to reach 17-18%, driven by product repricing and cost efficiencies.

Top risk Margin compression from product mix shift in NBFC

Shift towards secured loans has compressed NIM by ~90bps YoY, with ROA declining from 2.4% to 2.1%.

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