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View Promises →JSW Steel Limited — Q2 FY25
JSW Steel reported Q2 FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 39,684 crore, down 8% QoQ, with EBITDA of INR 5,437 crore (margin 13.7%) and PAT of INR 404 crore.
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JSW Steel reported Q2 FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 39,684 crore, down 8% QoQ, with EBITDA of INR 5,437 crore (margin 13.7%) and PAT of INR 404 crore. Despite a sharp INR 3,000/ton sequential drop in domestic NSR and weak export realizations, cost savings from lower coking coal ($27/ton) and iron ore costs helped cushion margins. Domestic sales hit a record high, but overall sales fell 3% YoY due to a 30% drop in exports amid Chinese steel dumping. Management retained FY25 volume guidance of 27 million tons sales and 28.4 million tons production, with H2 volumes expected to ramp up from new capacities at BPSL and JVML. Q3 outlook is cautiously optimistic: coking coal costs to fall another $20-25/ton, domestic prices have bottomed and increased in October, and government CapEx recovery should boost demand. However, elevated imports and China's export surge remain key risks. The company also revised FY25 CapEx down to INR 16,000-17,000 crore due to project deferrals.
जेएसडब्ल्यू स्टील ने दूसरी तिमाही में 39,684 करोड़ रुपये की कमाई की, जो पिछली तिमाही से 8% कम है। कंपनी ने 5,437 करोड़ रुपये का परिचालन लाभ (मार्जिन 13.7%) और 404 करोड़ रुपये का शुद्ध लाभ कमाया। भारत में स्टील की कीमतों में 3,000 रुपये प्रति टन की गिरावट और निर्यात में कमजोरी के बावजूद, कोयला और लौह अयस्क की लागत बचत से मुनाफा संभल गया। घरेलू बिक्री रिकॉर्ड स्तर पर पहुंची, लेकिन चीन से सस्ते स्टील के आयात के कारण निर्यात 30% गिर गया। कंपनी ने पूरे साल 2.7 करोड़ टन बिक्री और 2.84 करोड़ टन उत्पादन का लक्ष्य रखा है। अगली तिमाही में कोयले की लागत और गिरने और सरकारी खर्च बढ़ने से मांग बढ़ने की उम्मीद है, लेकिन चीन से आयात बड़ा जोखिम है। कंपनी ने इस साल खर्च घटाकर 16,000-17,000 करोड़ रुपये कर दिया है।
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Elevated steel imports from China
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Crude steel production (consolidated)
6.77M tons
+7% YoY
Record quarterly production driven by ramp-up at BPSL and JVML.
Domestic steel sales (India ops)
5.96M tons
+1% YoY
Highest ever quarterly domestic sales, with institutional segment up 12% YoY.
VASP sales mix
60%
Down vs prior quarter
Lower due to reduced exports; value-added and special products share declined.
JSW One Platform GMV
INR 2,755 crore
+140% YoY
Digital marketplace GMV grew 2.4x YoY, with over 67,500 registered MSME customers.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Q3 coking coal cost reduction of $20-25/ton
Coking coal costs expected to decline further in Q3, aiding margin expansion.
NEW
Net debt to EBITDA target of 2.5-3x in medium term
CFO committed to reducing leverage, with absolute debt expected to taper in H2 from working capital release.
UPDATED
FY25 volume guidance maintained at 27M tons sales, 28.4M tons production
Management reaffirmed full-year sales and production targets despite H1 headwinds, expecting H2 ramp-up from new capacities.
UPDATED
FY25 CapEx revised down to INR 16,000-17,000 crore
Reduction due to slurry pipeline transfer to JSW Infrastructure and BF3 shutdown deferral to FY26.
DROPPED
Q2 raw material cost savings: coking coal down $23-$28/ton, iron ore softer.
Benefits from lower input costs expected to improve steel spreads in Q2.
DROPPED
New capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL to ramp up in Q3 FY25.
Blast furnace and SMS at Vijayanagar commissioning by end-July/August; BPSL phase two ramp-up by Q3.
NEW RISK
Elevated steel imports from China
India's Q2 imports jumped 43% YoY to 3.18M tons, driven by Chinese exports, pressuring domestic prices and market share.
NEW RISK
Iron ore cost inflation from NMDC price hikes
NMDC increased iron ore prices twice recently, which management deemed unwarranted, potentially squeezing spreads despite coking coal savings.
NEW RISK
US operations profitability deterioration
Ohio and Texas combined posted an EBITDA loss of $11 million due to price drops and unplanned maintenance shutdown, with uncertain recovery timing.
NEW RISK
Debt increase and working capital strain
Net debt rose ~INR 4,900 crore to ~INR 85,000 crore due to CapEx, acquisition, and working capital build; CFO expects release of INR 1,500-2,000 crore in H2.
RISK GONE
Rising imports from China and FTA countries without trade barriers
Imports up 27% YoY in Q1; management raised concern about lack of trade measures making India a soft target.
RISK GONE
US operations profitability linked to volatile steel prices
Ohio and Texas combined EBITDA loss of $2.6 million due to HRC price decline from $900 to $720/ton.
RISK GONE
Mozambique coking coal mine approvals delayed
Land clearance issues with government; approvals expected during the year but timeline uncertain.
RISK GONE
Slurry pipeline transfer may reduce cost savings benefit
Analyst questioned rationale for transferring asset to JSW Infra; management defended capital allocation but savings will be shared.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
JSW Steel is adding 8.5 million tons of capacity to reach 37 million tons by FY25, with brownfield expansions at Vizag (5 million tons) and BPSL (to 5 million tons) on track.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24
Land clearance issues with government; approvals expected during the year but timeline uncertain.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management reaffirmed full-year sales and production targets despite H1 headwinds, expecting H2 ramp-up from new capacities.
India's Q2 imports jumped 43% YoY to 3.18M tons, driven by Chinese exports, pressuring domestic prices and market share.
View Risks →