JSW Steel Management Guidance Tracker
48 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Growth
Management confirmed the annual production target of 26.34 million tons, with Q1 achieving 100% of the quarterly target.
Q2 FY24Production and sales guidance on track for FY24ActiveManagement confirmed they are on track to achieve their production and sales guidance for FY24, with better volumes in H2 driven by BPSL capacity expansion and improved utilization.
Q4 FY24FY25 production guidance of 28.4 million tonsTrackedConsolidated crude steel production target for FY25, with sales guidance of 27 million tons, reflecting ramp-up of new capacities.
Q1 FY25New capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL to ramp up in Q3 FY25.ActiveBlast furnace and SMS at Vijayanagar commissioning by end-July/August; BPSL phase two ramp-up by Q3.
Q3 FY25FY25 volume guidance at ~98% of 28.4M tons production targetActiveManagement expects to achieve around 98% of the guided production volume of 28.4 million tons for FY25, due to delayed startup of JVML facility.
Q3 FY25FY26 iron ore production target of ~28M tons from captive minesTrackedManagement targets about 15 million tons from Karnataka, 12 million tons from Odisha, and 1.3-1.4 million tons from Goa in FY26.
Q4 FY25FY26 production guidance of 30.5 million tonsTrackedConsolidated crude steel production expected at 30.5 million tons, implying ~10% growth over FY25.
Q1 FY26Q2 volumes expected to increase sequentiallyActiveManagement expects higher volumes in Q2 as shutdowns are behind and JVML second converter starts.
Q1 FY26India steel demand growth 8.5%-9.5% for FY26TrackedCRISIL forecast of demand growth in the range of 8.5%-9.5% for the financial year, supported by government capex and monetary easing.
Q3 FY26FY27 India steel demand growth 7-9%TrackedManagement projects India steel demand growth of 7-9% for FY2027.
Q4 FY26FY27 consolidated production target of 29.75 million tonsTrackedManagement guided production of 29.75 million tons for FY27, representing ~13% growth on a like-for-like basis (excluding BPSL).
Margins
Coking coal costs are expected to decline by $45-50 per ton in Q2, providing a significant cost offset.
Q2 FY24Coking coal cost expected to moderateActiveManagement expects current elevated coking coal prices to moderate, with Q3 costs likely about $30/ton higher than Q2 due to blending benefits, and further moderation thereafter.
Q3 FY24Coking coal cost expected to increase $20-$25/ton in Q4ActiveLanded cost expected to rise from $252/ton in Q3 due to elevated global prices.
Q4 FY24Coking coal cost to decline $22-27/ton in Q1 FY25ActiveExpectation of lower input costs due to recent fall in coking coal prices, supporting margin improvement.
Q4 FY24Return to normative EBITDA per ton in FY25TrackedManagement expects EBITDA per ton to improve from Q4 levels, aided by cost savings, stable prices, and lower coking coal costs.
Q1 FY25Q2 raw material cost savings: coking coal down $23-$28/ton, iron ore softer.ActiveBenefits from lower input costs expected to improve steel spreads in Q2.
Q2 FY25Q3 coking coal cost reduction of $20-25/tonActiveCoking coal costs expected to decline further in Q3, aiding margin expansion.
Q3 FY25Q4 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15 per tonActiveCoking coal costs are expected to be lower by about $10-$15 per ton in Q4, aiding margins.
Q3 FY25Q4 iron ore cost benefit of ~₹350/ton from NMDC price cutActiveNMDC's iron ore price reduction of about ₹350 per ton in January will reflect in consumption costs in February and March.
Q4 FY25Q1 FY26 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15/tonActiveCoking coal costs expected to be lower by $10-$15 per ton in Q1 FY26 compared to Q4 FY25.
Q1 FY26Coking coal cost benefit of ~$5/ton in Q2ActiveCoking coal costs expected to be marginally lower QoQ by about $5 per ton.
Q2 FY26Coking coal cost increase of INR 3-5 in Q3ActiveCoking coal costs are expected to rise by INR 3-5 per ton in October-December due to PLV changes.
Q2 FY26Iron ore prices expected to decline in Q3ActiveManagement expects iron ore prices to decline in Q3, which would be positive for costs.
Q3 FY26Q4 margins expected to improveActiveSteel prices have recovered INR 3,500/ton since end-December, offsetting higher coking coal costs ($15-20/ton increase).
Expansion
Brownfield expansions at Vijayanagar, BPSL, and JSW Steel Coated will increase India capacity to 37 million tons by FY25.
Q1 FY24Medium-term capacity target of 50 million tonsTrackedThe company aims to reach 50 million tons capacity by 2030-31 through brownfield and modular greenfield expansions.
Q2 FY24Capacity expansion to 37 million tons by FY25TrackedJSW Steel is adding 8.5 million tons of capacity to reach 37 million tons by FY25, with brownfield expansions at Vizag (5 million tons) and BPSL (to 5 million tons) on track.
Q4 FY26Target of 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32TrackedJSW Steel aims to expand standalone capacity to 62 million tons by FY32, with additional 16 million tons via JVs (JF Steel and POSCO).
Capex
The company plans a CapEx of INR 52,000 crore until FY26 for growth to 37 million tons and downstream projects, funded mostly through internal accruals.
Q3 FY24CapEx spend of ~INR 18,000 crore in FY24ActiveLower than earlier estimate of INR 20,000 crore due to timing of payments spilling into Q1 FY25.
Q4 FY24Consolidated CapEx of INR 20,000 crore in FY25TrackedCapital expenditure planned for the fiscal year, funded largely through internal accruals, with net debt expected to remain flattish.
Q1 FY25Consolidated CapEx for FY25 expected to be about INR 30,000 crore.TrackedCapital expenditure guidance for the full year, including expansions and mining payments.
Q2 FY25FY25 CapEx revised down to INR 16,000-17,000 croreTrackedReduction due to slurry pipeline transfer to JSW Infrastructure and BF3 shutdown deferral to FY26.
Q1 FY26Dolvi Phase III expansion on track for Sep 2027TrackedDolvi expansion from 10 to 15 MTPA progressing well, on schedule for completion by September 2027.
Q2 FY26Annual CapEx of ~INR 20,000 crore per yearTrackedTotal CapEx of INR 69,000 crore over next 3.5 years, with ~INR 20,000 crore per year funded through internal accruals.
Q3 FY26FY26 capex guidance INR 15,000-16,000 croreActiveTotal capex for FY26 expected in the range of INR 15,000-16,000 crore.
Q4 FY26Capex of ₹22,000-24,000 crore in FY27TrackedPart of the ₹126,000 crore growth capex plan to be spent over 4-5 years; FY27 spend guided at ₹22,000-24,000 crore.
Revenue
Consolidated production and sales targets for FY24 remain unchanged despite Q3 sales dip.
Q1 FY25Consolidated production guidance of 28.4 million tons and sales guidance of 27 million tons for FY25 remains on track.TrackedManagement reaffirmed annual production and sales targets despite Q1 disruptions.
Q2 FY25FY25 volume guidance maintained at 27M tons sales, 28.4M tons productionActiveManagement reaffirmed full-year sales and production targets despite H1 headwinds, expecting H2 ramp-up from new capacities.
Q4 FY25FY26 sales guidance of 29.2 million tonsTrackedSteel sales guided at 29.2 million tons, also ~10% growth, in line with domestic demand growth.
Q4 FY25Q1 FY26 price improvement of INR 3,200-3,250/tonActiveRealizations expected to improve by INR 3,200-3,250 per ton in Q1 FY26 vs Q4 FY25 due to price hikes in March-April.
Q2 FY26Steel prices expected to improve in November-DecemberActiveManagement expects steel prices to rise in Q3 as channel inventories are low and demand picks up seasonally.
Q3 FY26FY26 volume guidance maintained: production 30.5M tons, sales 29.2M tonsActiveManagement expects to broadly achieve full-year guidance for production and sales, with Q4 volumes similar to Q3.
Q4 FY26FY27 sales volume guidance of 28.6 million tonsTrackedSales volume expected at 28.6 million tons, implying ~10% growth YoY, including BMM Ispat acquisition.