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JSWSTEEL Diversified 19 Jul 2024

JSW Steel Limited — Q1 FY25

JSW Steel reported Q1 FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 42,943 crore and EBITDA of INR 5,510 crore (13% margin), with PAT at INR 867 crore.

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Revenue ₹42,943 Cr
EBITDA ₹5,510 Cr
PAT ₹867 Cr
EBITDA Margin 13%
Duration
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✓ Verified against BSE filing

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✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

JSW Steel reported Q1 FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 42,943 crore and EBITDA of INR 5,510 crore (13% margin), with PAT at INR 867 crore. Performance was impacted by plant shutdowns at Dolvi and BPSL, inventory losses, and one-offs, though domestic sales grew 14% YoY to 5.3 million tons. The company achieved its highest-ever VASP share at 64%. Management expects improved volumes in Q2 as shutdowns are behind, with new capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL ramping up by Q3. Raw material costs (coking coal down $23-28/ton, iron ore softer) should support margins despite soft steel prices. Key risk: rising imports from China and FTA countries without trade barriers could pressure domestic pricing.

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Quarter Snapshot

Crude Steel Production 6.35M tons
-1% YoY

Production declined due to planned shutdowns at Dolvi and BPSL.

Domestic Sales Volume 5.3M tons
+14% YoY

Record Q1 domestic sales driven by strong demand.

VASP Share 64%
+14% YoY

Highest ever share of value-added and special products.

JSW One GMV INR 2,500+ crore
4x YoY

Digital platform GMV grew more than four times year-over-year.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q1 FY25 vs Q4 FY24
2 new guidance2 dropped3 new risk2 risk resolved
NEW
Q2 raw material cost savings: coking coal down $23-$28/ton, iron ore softer.

Benefits from lower input costs expected to improve steel spreads in Q2.

NEW
New capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL to ramp up in Q3 FY25.

Blast furnace and SMS at Vijayanagar commissioning by end-July/August; BPSL phase two ramp-up by Q3.

UPDATED
Consolidated production guidance of 28.4 million tons and sales guidance of 27 million tons for FY25 remains on track.

Management reaffirmed annual production and sales targets despite Q1 disruptions.

UPDATED
Consolidated CapEx for FY25 expected to be about INR 30,000 crore.

Capital expenditure guidance for the full year, including expansions and mining payments.

DROPPED
Coking coal cost to decline $22-27/ton in Q1 FY25

Expectation of lower input costs due to recent fall in coking coal prices, supporting margin improvement.

DROPPED
Return to normative EBITDA per ton in FY25

Management expects EBITDA per ton to improve from Q4 levels, aided by cost savings, stable prices, and lower coking coal costs.

NEW RISK
Rising imports from China and FTA countries without trade barriers

Imports up 27% YoY in Q1; management raised concern about lack of trade measures making India a soft target.

NEW RISK
US operations profitability linked to volatile steel prices

Ohio and Texas combined EBITDA loss of $2.6 million due to HRC price decline from $900 to $720/ton.

NEW RISK
Slurry pipeline transfer may reduce cost savings benefit

Analyst questioned rationale for transferring asset to JSW Infra; management defended capital allocation but savings will be shared.

RISK GONE
Rising steel imports from China and ASEAN

India's steel imports grew 37% YoY in FY24, with Q4 imports up 30% YoY, posing a risk to domestic pricing and market share.

RISK GONE
Geopolitical tensions impacting global trade

Rising geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and steel demand, though management remains watchful.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Consolidated production guidance of 28.4 million tons and sales guidance of 27 million tons for FY25 remains on track.

Management reaffirmed annual production and sales targets despite Q1 disruptions.

Top risk Rising imports from China and FTA countries without trade barriers

Imports up 27% YoY in Q1; management raised concern about lack of trade measures making India a soft target.

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