Hindalco Industries Management Guidance Tracker

Management expects costs to decline by 3% sequentially in Q2 FY24, driven by higher linkage coal share (57-60%) and lower coal prices.

Management expressed increased confidence in achieving $525/ton EBITDA by the Jan-Mar quarter, with near-term range of $450-500.

Coal costs expected slightly up, but offset by lower input costs like caustic, furnace oil, CP coke.

Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.

Management guided that aluminum costs in Q1 FY25 will likely be 1-2% lower than Q4 FY24, driven by lower coal and input costs.

Management guided downstream EBITDA per ton between $250 and $300 for FY26, driven by product mix improvement and new capacities.

Early actions from the $300 million structural cost reduction program have accelerated savings; exit rate target increased from $75 million to over $100 million.

Despite current headwinds, management maintains high confidence in achieving $600 per ton EBITDA through cost actions and tariff mitigation.

Three-year program targeting permanent cost reduction through organizational restructuring and manufacturing optimization.

Management reiterated the long-term target of $600 per ton EBITDA, supported by cost savings and Bay Minette ramp-up.

Downstream volumes expected to cross 90 KT in Q2 FY24, with EBITDA per ton remaining well above $200.

The 160 KTPA FRP plant at Aditya is expected to sell 60-70 KT in FY26, with ramp-up starting in June.

Management targets EBITDA per ton between $250 and $300 as volumes ramp up with new FRP capacity.

Outage impact is a timing issue; headwind this fiscal year will largely be recovered next year.

Annual CapEx for Novelis guided at $1.6-1.9 billion; Q1 spend was $333 million, expected to ramp up.

CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.

Includes strategic projects; detailed FY25 guidance in February call.

Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.

India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.

Management guided India CapEx for FY25 in the range of INR 5,500-6,000 crore.

Novelis CapEx for FY25 is expected at the lower end of the $1.8-2.1 billion range, around $1.8 billion.

Management guided for India CapEx of approximately INR 8,000 crore in FY26, up from ~INR 6,000 crore in FY25, driven by brownfield smelter expansions.

Capital expenditure in India for FY26 is guided at INR 8,000 crore, with peak spending in FY27-FY28.

Capital expenditure for Indian operations expected to be INR 7,500-8,000 crore in FY26, up from INR 6,500 crore in FY25.

Capital expenditure for India business guided at INR 7,500-8,000 crore this year, peaking at INR 15,000 crore next year driven by expansion projects.

Next fiscal year CapEx expected to be around INR 11,000 crore, up from INR 8,500 crore in FY26.

India capital expenditure for next fiscal year is expected to be in the range of INR 10,000-12,000 crore, similar to FY26.

CapEx ~INR 6,000 crore for first phase; bauxite supply secured via OMC MOU.

The Chakla coal mine box cut is expected to occur in Q3 of calendar year 2025 (Q3 FY2025), delayed from earlier guidance due to land acquisition issues.

The copper inner groove tubes project is on track and expected to be commissioned by the end of calendar year 2024.

The alumina refinery expansion will take 24-26 months from breaking ground, which follows signing of a binding bauxite supply agreement with OMC.

The 50 KT copper recycling project at Dahej is expected to break ground post-monsoons, around October 2024.

The 180kt brownfield aluminum smelter expansion at Aditya is expected to come on stream in October 2027, powered by renewable energy.

The 280-300kt copper smelter expansion at Dahej is expected to be completed in 2029, with long-term concentrate contracts being discussed.

The 600kt greenfield Bay Minette project is on track for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026, with 420kt capacity contracted for beverage packaging.

The 600 KT greenfield project remains on track, with 420 KT already contracted for beverage packaging and automotive.

The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility at Bay Minette is progressing steadily, with over 90% engineering complete.

The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility is scheduled for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026.

Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.

Management committed to keeping consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA below 2x over the next four years despite $10 billion CapEx plan.

The Oswego hot mill is expected to restart in late Q1 of fiscal year 2027, recovering lost volumes.

Management expects alumina sales of about 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25, up from 22 KT in Q4 FY24, as brownfield expansion ramps up.

Management expects quarterly copper EBITDA to be around INR 600 crore next year, down from current levels due to lower TC/RCs.

Q4 volumes expected to be around Q2 levels (likely ~950 KT), driven by operating leverage and repriced beverage can contracts.