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Hindalco Industries Limited — Q3 FY24
Hindalco reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated EBITDA up 36% YoY to INR 6,985 crore and PAT up 71% YoY to INR 2,331 crore, driven by recovery at Novelis, cost control in India Aluminium, and record copper performance.
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Hindalco reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated EBITDA up 36% YoY to INR 6,985 crore and PAT up 71% YoY to INR 2,331 crore, driven by recovery at Novelis, cost control in India Aluminium, and record copper performance. Novelis delivered EBITDA per ton of $499, with Q4 guidance of $525 sustainable. India Aluminium EBITDA per ton reached $880, among the best globally. Copper EBITDA hit an all-time high of INR 656 crore. The Bay Minette project cost escalated to $4.1 billion, but management maintains double-digit IRR and P85 confidence. Risks include execution on Bay Minette and potential LME price weakness.
हिंडाल्को ने तीसरी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी का कुल मुनाफा (EBITDA) पिछले साल की तुलना में 36% बढ़कर 6,985 करोड़ रुपये हो गया। शुद्ध मुनाफा (PAT) 71% बढ़कर 2,331 करोड़ रुपये रहा। यह तीन चीजों की वजह से हुआ: नोवेलिस का सुधार, भारत में एल्युमीनियम की लागत पर काबू, और कॉपर का रिकॉर्ड प्रदर्शन। नोवेलिस ने प्रति टन 499 डॉलर कमाया और अगली तिमाही में 525 डॉलर का लक्ष्य है। भारत एल्युमीनियम ने प्रति टन 880 डॉलर कमाए, जो दुनिया में सबसे अच्छा है। कॉपर ने 656 करोड़ रुपये का सर्वकालिक उच्च मुनाफा दिया। बे मिनेट प्रोजेक्ट की लागत बढ़कर 4.1 अरब डॉलर हो गई, लेकिन कंपनी को भरोसा है कि इस पर अच्छा रिटर्न मिलेगा। जोखिमों में प्रोजेक्ट में देरी और एल्युमीनियम की कीमतों में गिरावट शामिल है।
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Novelis EBITDA per ton
$499
+33% YoY
Novelis delivered $499/ton EBITDA in Q3, up from $376/ton in the prior year quarter.
India Aluminium EBITDA per ton
$880
+53% YoY
India upstream aluminium EBITDA per ton rose to $880, supported by lower input costs.
Copper shipments
119 KT
+9% YoY
Copper metal shipments reached a record high of 119 KT, up 9% year-on-year.
Novelis shipments
910 KT
+0.2% YoY
Novelis shipments were flat at 910 KT, with recovery in beverage packaging and automotive.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Novelis Q4 FY24 EBITDA per ton of $525
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
NEW
Bay Minette project cost at $4.1 billion with P85 confidence
Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.
NEW
Consolidated net leverage to rise to ~3x in 2-2.5 years
Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.
UPDATED
India CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore per year without borrowing
India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.
DROPPED
Q3 FY24 cost of production flattish QoQ
Coal costs expected slightly up, but offset by lower input costs like caustic, furnace oil, CP coke.
DROPPED
Novelis CapEx guidance lowered to $1.5-$1.8 billion
CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.
DROPPED
Alumina refinery in Odisha: first 1M tons in 36 months
CapEx ~INR 6,000 crore for first phase; bauxite supply secured via OMC MOU.
NEW RISK
Bay Minette cost overrun and execution risk
The project cost escalated from $2.5B to $4.1B due to civil/structural underestimation; further overruns could impact returns.
NEW RISK
LME aluminium price weakness
India Aluminium EBITDA per ton is highly dependent on LME prices; a sustained downturn could compress margins.
NEW RISK
Competition in copper and potential TC/RC pressure
New entrants in copper may pressure margins; spot TC/RC is already declining due to supply tightness.
NEW RISK
Novelis carbon intensity increase due to product mix shift
Higher auto mix has reduced recycling rates, increasing carbon intensity; regulatory or customer pushback could emerge.
RISK GONE
Coal cost volatility
Spot auction premiums rose in October due to high power demand; Q3 coal costs may increase.
RISK GONE
Aluminum price uncertainty
Prices remain range-bound; macro headwinds could delay recovery despite tight supply-demand.
RISK GONE
Novelis Clayton plant closure costs
One-time cost of $25-35 million; cash outgo includes severance and asset write-offs.
RISK GONE
Geopolitical tensions impacting inflation
RBI monitoring crude oil impact; could affect input costs and demand.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
Prices remain range-bound; macro headwinds could delay recovery despite tight supply-demand.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
The project cost escalated from $2.5B to $4.1B due to civil/structural underestimation; further overruns could impact returns.
View Risks →