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Hindalco Industries Limited — Q2 FY25
Hindalco reported a strong Q2 FY25 with consolidated EBITDA up 49% YoY to INR 9,100 crore and PAT up 78% YoY to INR 3,909 crore, driven by record beverage packaging shipments at Novelis, better cost control in India aluminum, and a record performance in cop...
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Hindalco reported a strong Q2 FY25 with consolidated EBITDA up 49% YoY to INR 9,100 crore and PAT up 78% YoY to INR 3,909 crore, driven by record beverage packaging shipments at Novelis, better cost control in India aluminum, and a record performance in copper. India aluminum EBITDA surged 79% YoY to INR 3,709 crore with margins of 41%, while copper EBITDA hit an all-time high of INR 829 crore. Novelis EBITDA per ton fell 6% YoY to $489 due to rising scrap prices and a $25 million flood impact at Sierre. Management guided for India CapEx of ~INR 8,000 crore in FY26, with brownfield smelter expansions in aluminum (180kt) and copper (280-300kt) expected to deliver double-digit IRRs. Key risk: near-term pressure on Novelis margins from elevated scrap spreads, which management expects to worsen in H2 before stabilizing.
हिंडाल्को ने दूसरी तिमाही में मजबूत प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी का कुल मुनाफा (EBITDA) 49% बढ़कर 9,100 करोड़ रुपये हो गया, और शुद्ध मुनाफा (PAT) 78% बढ़कर 3,909 करोड़ रुपये पहुंच गया। इसकी वजह नोवेलिस में पेय पदार्थों की पैकेजिंग की रिकॉर्ड बिक्री, भारत में एल्युमीनियम की लागत पर बेहतर नियंत्रण और तांबे का शानदार प्रदर्शन रहा। भारत में एल्युमीनियम का मुनाफा 79% बढ़कर 3,709 करोड़ रुपये हो गया, जबकि तांबे का मुनाफा सर्वकालिक उच्च स्तर 829 करोड़ रुपये पर पहुंच गया। नोवेलिस का प्रति टन मुनाफा 6% घटकर 489 डॉलर रह गया, क्योंकि स्क्रैप की कीमतें बढ़ीं और बाढ़ से 25 मिलियन डॉलर का नुकसान हुआ। कंपनी अगले साल भारत में 8,000 करोड़ रुपये का निवेश करेगी, जिससे एल्युमीनियम और तांबे का उत्पादन बढ़ेगा। लेकिन नोवेलिस पर स्क्रैप की बढ़ती कीमतों का दबाव रहेगा, जो साल की दूसरी छमाही में और बढ़ सकता है।
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Novelis scrap spread pressure may worsen in H2
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Novelis Shipments
945 KT
+1% YoY
Record beverage packaging shipments drove a 1% year-on-year increase in Novelis shipments to 945 KT.
India Aluminum EBITDA per Ton
$1,349
+80% YoY
India upstream aluminum EBITDA per ton rose 80% year-on-year to $1,349, supported by lower input costs and favorable macros.
Copper EBITDA
INR 829 Cr
+27% YoY
Copper EBITDA reached an all-time high of INR 829 crore, driven by operational efficiencies, higher byproduct realizations, and one-time derivative gains.
Novelis EBITDA per Ton
$489
-6% YoY
Novelis EBITDA per ton declined 6% year-on-year to $489 due to reduced metal benefits from rising scrap prices and a $25 million flood impact.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Aluminum smelter expansion to commission by October 2027
The 180kt brownfield aluminum smelter expansion at Aditya is expected to come on stream in October 2027, powered by renewable energy.
NEW
Copper smelter expansion to commission in 2029
The 280-300kt copper smelter expansion at Dahej is expected to be completed in 2029, with long-term concentrate contracts being discussed.
NEW
Novelis Bay Minette project completion in H2 CY2026
The 600kt greenfield Bay Minette project is on track for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026, with 420kt capacity contracted for beverage packaging.
UPDATED
India CapEx of ~INR 8,000 crore in FY26
Management guided for India CapEx of approximately INR 8,000 crore in FY26, up from ~INR 6,000 crore in FY25, driven by brownfield smelter expansions.
DROPPED
Novelis CapEx FY25: ~$1.8 billion
Novelis CapEx for FY25 is expected at the lower end of the $1.8-2.1 billion range, around $1.8 billion.
DROPPED
Alumina expansion timeline: 24-26 months after contract signing
The alumina refinery expansion will take 24-26 months from breaking ground, which follows signing of a binding bauxite supply agreement with OMC.
DROPPED
Copper recycling project: breaking ground by October 2024
The 50 KT copper recycling project at Dahej is expected to break ground post-monsoons, around October 2024.
NEW RISK
Novelis scrap spread pressure may worsen in H2
Management acknowledged that scrap spreads are in uncharted territory and expect some worsening in Q3 and Q4 due to elevated scrap prices and seasonality.
NEW RISK
Novelis EBITDA per ton guidance of $600 may be delayed
When asked about the long-term $600/ton EBITDA target, management reiterated confidence but declined to provide short-term guidance, indicating uncertainty.
NEW RISK
Copper TC/RCs remain at historically low levels
Spot TC/RCs are at historically low levels, which could pressure copper smelter margins if they do not recover by the time the new smelter is commissioned.
NEW RISK
Geopolitical tensions and China slowdown pose downside risks
Management highlighted increasing geopolitical tensions, negative spillovers from China's slowdown, and financial market volatility as key risks to the global outlook.
RISK GONE
Coal block clearance delays
Chakla and Meenakshi coal blocks face tough forest clearance processes, delaying captive coal benefits.
RISK GONE
Volatile LME prices and macro headwinds
Commodity prices are driven by macro/geopolitical events, not fundamentals; LME aluminum has already fallen from $2,500 to $2,300.
RISK GONE
Copper TC/RC margin pressure
Concentrate supply constraints are expected to keep spot TC/RCs low, impacting copper margins in the near term.
RISK GONE
Novelis Sierre plant flooding
Unprecedented flooding at the Sierre, Switzerland plant halted production from June 30; expected to resume by end of Q2.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24
Novelis CapEx for FY25 is expected at the lower end of the $1.8-2.1 billion range, around $1.8 billion.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q3 FY24
Concentrate supply constraints are expected to keep spot TC/RCs low, impacting copper margins in the near term.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
Prices remain range-bound; macro headwinds could delay recovery despite tight supply-demand.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management guided for India CapEx of approximately INR 8,000 crore in FY26, up from ~INR 6,000 crore in FY25, driven by brownfield smelter expansions.
Management acknowledged that scrap spreads are in uncharted territory and expect some worsening in Q3 and Q4 due to elevated scrap prices and seaso...
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