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Hindalco Industries Limited — Q4 FY24
Hindalco reported a strong Q4 FY24 with consolidated EBITDA up 24% YoY to INR 7,200 crore and PAT up 32% YoY to INR 3,174 crore.
bullish
high
✓ Verified against BSE filing
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Hindalco reported a strong Q4 FY24 with consolidated EBITDA up 24% YoY to INR 7,200 crore and PAT up 32% YoY to INR 3,174 crore. The India business EBITDA rose 30% YoY to INR 3,340 crore, driven by lower input costs and record copper performance. Novelis delivered EBITDA of $514 million, up 28% YoY, with EBITDA per ton at $540. Aluminum India EBITDA per ton reached $967, up 17% YoY, with margins at 32%. Copper EBITDA hit an all-time high of INR 776 crore, up 30% YoY. Management expects costs to decline further by 1-2% in Q1 FY25 and sees strong demand across segments. Key risks include potential delays in coal mine clearances and volatility in global aluminum prices.
हिंडाल्को ने चौथी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी की कुल कमाई (EBITDA) पिछले साल के मुकाबले 24% बढ़कर 7,200 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। मुनाफा (PAT) 32% बढ़कर 3,174 करोड़ रुपये पहुंच गया। भारत के कारोबार में कमाई 30% बढ़ी, जिसकी वजह कम लागत और तांबे का रिकॉर्ड प्रदर्शन रहा। नोवेलिस ने भी 28% ज्यादा कमाई की। एल्युमीनियम पर हर टन से 967 डॉलर का मुनाफा हुआ, जो पिछले साल से 17% ज्यादा है। तांबे के कारोबार ने सबसे ज्यादा 776 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा दिया। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि अगली तिमाही में लागत और 1-2% घटेगी और मांग मजबूत रहेगी। लेकिन कोयला खदानों की मंजूरी में देरी और अंतरराष्ट्रीय एल्युमीनियम की कीमतों में उतार-चढ़ाव जोखिम पैदा कर सकते हैं।
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Delay in Chakla coal mine clearance
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Novelis EBITDA per ton
$540
+25% YoY
Novelis delivered $540 per ton EBITDA, up from $431 in the prior year quarter, driven by favorable metal benefits and lower costs.
Aluminum India EBITDA per ton
$967
+17% YoY
Aluminum India EBITDA per ton reached $967, supported by lower input costs and higher shipments.
Copper EBITDA
INR 776 crore
+30% YoY
Copper business delivered an all-time high quarterly EBITDA of INR 776 crore, driven by higher shipments and stable operations.
Copper shipments
135 KT
+16% YoY
Copper metal shipments reached a record 135 KT, up 16% year-on-year, with CCR volumes at 98 KT.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Costs expected to decline 1-2% in Q1 FY25
Management guided that aluminum costs in Q1 FY25 will likely be 1-2% lower than Q4 FY24, driven by lower coal and input costs.
NEW
Alumina sales of 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25
Management expects alumina sales of about 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25, up from 22 KT in Q4 FY24, as brownfield expansion ramps up.
NEW
Chakla coal mine box cut expected in Q3 CY2025
The Chakla coal mine box cut is expected to occur in Q3 of calendar year 2025 (Q3 FY2025), delayed from earlier guidance due to land acquisition issues.
NEW
Copper inner groove tubes project commissioning by end of CY2024
The copper inner groove tubes project is on track and expected to be commissioned by the end of calendar year 2024.
DROPPED
Novelis Q4 FY24 EBITDA per ton of $525
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
DROPPED
Bay Minette project cost at $4.1 billion with P85 confidence
Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.
DROPPED
Consolidated net leverage to rise to ~3x in 2-2.5 years
Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.
DROPPED
India CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore per year without borrowing
India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.
NEW RISK
Delay in Chakla coal mine clearance
The Chakla coal mine box cut has been delayed to Q3 CY2025 due to land acquisition and forest clearance issues, which could impact coal cost stability.
NEW RISK
Volatility in global aluminum prices
Aluminum prices remain volatile due to geopolitical factors and sanctions, which could impact realized prices despite hedging.
NEW RISK
Tightness in copper concentrate market
Disruptions in copper mines and new smelter commissioning are causing subdued TC/RC levels, which may pressure copper margins in the short to medium term.
NEW RISK
Execution risk in renewable power integration
The RTC renewable power contract for the smelter is being tested for stability; any issues could delay smelter expansion plans.
RISK GONE
Bay Minette cost overrun and execution risk
The project cost escalated from $2.5B to $4.1B due to civil/structural underestimation; further overruns could impact returns.
RISK GONE
LME aluminium price weakness
India Aluminium EBITDA per ton is highly dependent on LME prices; a sustained downturn could compress margins.
RISK GONE
Competition in copper and potential TC/RC pressure
New entrants in copper may pressure margins; spot TC/RC is already declining due to supply tightness.
RISK GONE
Novelis carbon intensity increase due to product mix shift
Higher auto mix has reduced recycling rates, increasing carbon intensity; regulatory or customer pushback could emerge.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
Prices remain range-bound; macro headwinds could delay recovery despite tight supply-demand.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management guided that aluminum costs in Q1 FY25 will likely be 1-2% lower than Q4 FY24, driven by lower coal and input costs.
The Chakla coal mine box cut has been delayed to Q3 CY2025 due to land acquisition and forest clearance issues, which could impact coal cost stabil...
View Risks →