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Hindalco Industries Limited — Q3 FY26
Hindalco's Q3 FY26 consolidated EBITDA rose 6% YoY to INR 8,762 crore, driven by strong India upstream performance (EBITDA up 14% YoY to INR 4,832 crore, $1,572/ton).
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Hindalco's Q3 FY26 consolidated EBITDA rose 6% YoY to INR 8,762 crore, driven by strong India upstream performance (EBITDA up 14% YoY to INR 4,832 crore, $1,572/ton). PAT fell 45% to INR 2,049 crore due to Novelis Oswego fire exceptional items; adjusted PAT was INR 4,051 crore (+8% YoY). Novelis shipments declined 3% to 881 KT, with adjusted EBITDA of $436 million (+22% YoY excluding fire/tariff impacts). India aluminum downstream EBITDA surged 55% YoY to INR 233 crore. Copper EBITDA fell 23% to INR 595 crore on lower TCRCs. Management expects Q4 India cost to rise ~1% due to CP Coke. Novelis Oswego hot mill restart in late Q1 FY27; Bay Minette commissioning on track for H2 CY26. Key risk: Novelis net debt could spike to high $8B before insurance recoveries, potentially breaching 2x leverage target temporarily.
हिंडाल्को की तीसरी तिमाही (अक्टूबर-दिसंबर 2025) में कमाई 6% बढ़कर 8,762 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। भारत में एल्युमीनियम बनाने के कारोबार से मुनाफा 14% बढ़ा। लेकिन कुल मुनाफा 45% गिरकर 2,049 करोड़ रुपये रहा, क्योंकि अमेरिकी कंपनी नोवेलिस की फैक्ट्री में आग लगने से एक बार का बड़ा खर्च आया। इस खर्च को हटाकर देखें तो मुनाफा 8% बढ़ा। नोवेलिस का माल भेजना 3% घटा, लेकिन आग और टैरिफ का असर हटाकर कमाई 22% बढ़ी। भारत में एल्युमीनियम से बनी चीजों का कारोबार 55% बढ़ा। तांबे का कारोबार 23% गिरा। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि अगली तिमाही में लागत थोड़ी बढ़ेगी। नोवेलिस की जली फैक्ट्री अगले साल की शुरुआत में चालू होगी। कर्ज बढ़ने का खतरा है, जो अस्थायी रूप से तय सीमा से ऊपर जा सकता है।
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Novelis net debt spike above 2x leverage
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Aluminum Upstream EBITDA per ton
$1,572
+$51 QoQ
Upstream EBITDA per ton improved from $1,521 in Q2 to $1,573 in Q3, driven by operational efficiency.
Novelis Adjusted EBITDA per ton
$495
+22% YoY
Excluding Oswego fire and tariff impacts, underlying EBITDA per ton was $495, up from $406 last year.
India Downstream EBITDA per ton
$241
+35% YoY
Downstream EBITDA per ton rose to $241 from $179 in Q3 FY25, driven by higher volumes and premiumization.
Novelis Structural Cost Savings Run Rate
$150M
+$25M QoQ
Run rate increased from $125M in Q2 to $150M, on track to $300M by FY28 exit.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Novelis Oswego hot mill restart in late Q1 FY27
The Oswego hot mill is expected to restart in late Q1 of fiscal year 2027, recovering lost volumes.
NEW
Bay Minette commissioning in H2 CY26
The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility is scheduled for completion in the second half of calendar year 2026.
NEW
Novelis long-term EBITDA per ton target of $600
Management reiterated the long-term target of $600 per ton EBITDA, supported by cost savings and Bay Minette ramp-up.
UPDATED
India CapEx of INR 10,000-12,000 crore in FY27
India capital expenditure for next fiscal year is expected to be in the range of INR 10,000-12,000 crore, similar to FY26.
DROPPED
Consolidated net leverage below 2x through FY29
Management committed to keeping consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA below 2x over the next four years despite $10 billion CapEx plan.
DROPPED
Novelis structural cost reduction of $300 million by FY28 exit
Three-year program targeting permanent cost reduction through organizational restructuring and manufacturing optimization.
DROPPED
Oswego Hotmill startup next month
Outage impact is a timing issue; headwind this fiscal year will largely be recovered next year.
NEW RISK
Novelis net debt spike above 2x leverage
Net debt at Novelis could rise to high $8 billion due to Oswego fire costs and Bay Minette capex, potentially pushing consolidated leverage above the 2x target temporarily.
NEW RISK
Oswego fire volume impact persists in Q4
Novelis expects a similar 70 KT volume loss in Q4 due to Oswego, with EBITDA impact rising to $60-65 million.
NEW RISK
Chakla coal mine delay
The Chakla mine box cut is delayed by about a quarter to April, pushing first production to H1 FY27.
NEW RISK
Copper TC/RC headwinds
Spot TC/RCs remain negative at -$0.10-0.11/lb, and long-term contracts settled at 0 cents, pressuring copper margins.
RISK GONE
Bay Minette cost overrun and execution risk
Project cost increased to ~$5 billion from $4.1 billion due to inflation and engineering complexity; IRR now slightly below double-digit.
RISK GONE
Novelis tariff impact persistence
Q2 tariff impact was $54 million; while mitigation is progressing, full elimination depends on policy and operational shifts.
RISK GONE
Hedging caps upside in strong LME environment
Aggressive short-term hedging (49% of Q4 at $2,760/ton) limits benefit from LME rally above $2,900.
RISK GONE
India cost inflation in monsoon quarter
Cost of production rose 3-4% QoQ in Q2 due to higher coal costs and planned shutdowns; Q3 expected flat to +1%.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25
The 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility at Bay Minette is progressing steadily, with over 90% engineering complete.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Q2 tariff impact was $54 million; while mitigation is progressing, full elimination depends on policy and operational shifts.
Mentioned in Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25
Annual TC/RC benchmark for 2025 settled at $0.0545/lb, down 73% YoY, pressuring copper EBITDA which fell 21% in Q4.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25
Global concentrate market remains tight with spot TC/RCs at record lows; management expects TC/RCs to remain subdued for next couple of years.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26
Higher scrap prices versus prior year and less stable product mix continue to pressure Novelis margins, though spreads are expected to improve.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
The Oswego hot mill is expected to restart in late Q1 of fiscal year 2027, recovering lost volumes.
Net debt at Novelis could rise to high $8 billion due to Oswego fire costs and Bay Minette capex, potentially pushing consolidated leverage above t...
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