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View Promises →Adani Power Limited — Q3 FY26
Adani Power reported Q3 FY26 revenue of INR 12,717 crore, down 5.3% YoY, due to lower power selling rates and weaker merchant prices.
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Adani Power reported Q3 FY26 revenue of INR 12,717 crore, down 5.3% YoY, due to lower power selling rates and weaker merchant prices. EBITDA fell 3.1% to INR 4,636 crore, but margin expanded ~80bps to 36.5% on cost control. PAT declined 15.4% to INR 2,488 crore, impacted by lower prior-period income. Power sales rose marginally to 23.6 BU despite lower PLF (62.6% vs 63.9%). Management highlighted 90% of operating capacity under long-term PPAs, reducing merchant exposure. The 23.7 GW expansion pipeline is on track, with 2.9 GW commissioning next year and full completion by FY32. Key risks include regulatory hurdles for Rajasthan PPA and Bangladesh geopolitical uncertainty. Guidance focuses on capacity additions and margin stability from new PPAs with higher capacity charges.
अडानी पावर की तिमाही आय 12,717 करोड़ रुपये रही, जो पिछले साल से 5.3% कम है। इसकी वजह बिजली की कम बिक्री दर और कमजोर बाजार भाव हैं। मुनाफा (EBITDA) 3.1% घटकर 4,636 करोड़ रुपये हुआ, लेकिन खर्चों पर नियंत्रण से मार्जिन 36.5% तक बढ़ा। शुद्ध मुनाफा (PAT) 15.4% गिरकर 2,488 करोड़ रुपये रहा, क्योंकि पिछली तिमाही की अतिरिक्त आय नहीं मिली। बिजली की बिक्री थोड़ी बढ़कर 23.6 बिलियन यूनिट हुई, भले ही संयंत्रों का उपयोग (PLF) 62.6% रहा। कंपनी ने बताया कि 90% बिजली लंबी अवधि के समझौतों (PPA) के तहत बेची जाती है, जिससे बाजार जोखिम कम होता है। 23.7 गीगावॉट के विस्तार की योजना सही चल रही है - अगले साल 2.9 गीगावॉट जुड़ेगा और 2032 तक पूरा काम होगा। मुख्य जोखिम राजस्थान PPA में नियामकीय अड़चनें और बांग्लादेश की अनिश्चितता हैं। कंपनी का ध्यान नई क्षमता बढ़ाने और नए PPA से मार्जिन स्थिर रखने पर है।
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Installed Capacity
18.15 GW
+0.6 GW YoY
Increased due to acquisition of Vidarbha plant.
Power Sales (Q3)
23.6 BU
+1.3% YoY
Slight increase despite lower PLF, driven by higher operating capacity.
Merchant Volume (Q3)
4.3 BU
N/A
Merchant volume for the quarter; management aims to reduce open capacity to 3-4%.
PPA Coverage
90%
+6pp YoY
Operating capacity under long-term PPAs, up from 84% last year.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Capacity expansion of 23.7 GW by FY32
Planned addition of 23.7 GW thermal capacity, with 2.9 GW commissioning next fiscal, 2.4 GW in FY28, 2.4 GW in FY29, 8 GW in FY30, 5.6 GW in FY31, and 2.4 GW in FY32.
NEW
Reduce open capacity to 3-4% over 6-7 years
Management targets reducing merchant exposure from current 10% to 3-4% over the medium term by signing more long-term PPAs.
NEW
Korba Phase 2 commissioning by end of next fiscal
First unit of Korba Phase 2 expected around mid-next year, second unit by end of next fiscal.
DROPPED
Merchant tariff expected to average ~INR 6/unit in H2 FY26
Management expects merchant realization to recover to around INR 6 per unit in the second half, from INR 5.37 in Q2.
DROPPED
Godda plant to connect to Indian grid by December 2025
The Godda power plant is expected to be connected to the Indian grid by December 2025, allowing sales under certain conditions.
DROPPED
First 12 GW of expansion on track; 3 GW commissioning next year
The first 12 GW of the 23.5 GW expansion is on schedule, with ~3 GW expected to commission in FY27, followed by 2.4 GW, 3.2 GW, and 7.2 GW in subsequent years.
DROPPED
Total CapEx for 23.5 GW expansion ~INR 2 lakh crore
The estimated capital expenditure for the entire 23.5 GW capacity expansion is approximately INR 2 lakh crore.
NEW RISK
Rajasthan PPA regulatory hurdle
Regulator questioned the need for full 3,200 MW PPA; DISCOM has been allowed to re-present its case, causing potential delays.
NEW RISK
Bangladesh geopolitical risk
Continued supply to Bangladesh amid political turmoil; though payments are regular, any escalation could impact Godda plant operations.
NEW RISK
Weaker power demand and merchant price decline
All India power demand was flat YoY due to extended monsoons and cooler temperatures, leading to lower merchant realizations.
RISK GONE
Prolonged softness in merchant tariffs
Merchant realization fell to INR 5.37/unit in Q2 from INR 5.88 last year; if demand recovery is delayed, near-term earnings could be pressured.
RISK GONE
Execution risk on 23.5 GW expansion
Massive capex of INR 2 lakh crore and tight timelines (2032) pose execution and funding risks, though management cites pre-ordered equipment and brownfield advantages.
RISK GONE
Godda plant receivables and Bangladesh PPA risk
Godda PLF was 72% and receivables are only 1.5 months overdue, but any deterioration in Bangladesh's payment or scheduling could impact cash flows.
RISK GONE
Change in law impact on fuel costs
GST compensation cess removal may affect fuel costs; while management expects pass-through, delays in regulatory approvals could create near-term uncertainty.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25, Q4 FY25
Merchant realizations fell 14.3% YoY due to early monsoon and weak demand; further weakness could impact earnings.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25
Outstanding from Bangladesh is ~INR 800 crore, with ~INR 100 crore pending reconciliation due to formula interpretation issues.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management aims to secure long-term PPAs for 80% of new capacity, keeping 20% for merchant sales to balance risk and reward.
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Massive capex of INR 2 lakh crore and tight timelines (2032) pose execution and funding risks, though management cites pre-ordered equipment and brownfield advantages.
Mentioned in Q2 FY25, Q4 FY25
The 1,600 MW Mahan expansion project is expected to be commissioned around March or April 2027.
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Guidance and risk preview
Planned addition of 23.7 GW thermal capacity, with 2.9 GW commissioning next fiscal, 2.4 GW in FY28, 2.4 GW in FY29, 8 GW in FY30, 5.6 GW in FY31,...
Regulator questioned the need for full 3,200 MW PPA; DISCOM has been allowed to re-present its case, causing potential delays.
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