Adani Power FY25 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹57,390 Cr revenue · ₹13,363 Cr PAT · 39.0% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY25Risks flagged during the year
Merchant realization fell to INR 4.54/unit from INR 6.86/unit last year due to lower demand and seasonality, impacting profitability.
Q1 FY25 · mediumNCLT approval for Lanco and Coastal is pending; any delay could impact capacity addition timeline.
Q1 FY25 · medium20% merchant exposure exposes earnings to tariff fluctuations; management expects stable demand but risk remains.
Q2 FY25 · mediumMerchant power tariffs could decline if demand softens or coal prices rise, impacting the 20% open capacity.
Q2 FY25 · mediumBangladesh has 4-5 months of arrears for all power suppliers; any worsening could impact Godda plant cash flows.
Q2 FY25 · mediumDoubling capacity to 30 GW by 2030 involves significant project execution and regulatory approvals, with potential delays.
Q3 FY25 · mediumAnalyst raised concern that if power demand growth slows to 5%, incremental thermal capacity requirement may be lower than expected.
Q3 FY25 · mediumAnalyst questioned whether solar plus battery at INR 3-3.50/kWh could reduce need for new coal PPAs; management argued thermal remains essential for base load.
Q4 FY25 · mediumMerchant realizations declined 18.5% YoY to INR 5.03/unit in Q4, and further weakness could impact profitability.
Q4 FY25 · mediumGross outstanding from Bangladesh stands at ~$900 million; while collections are improving, geopolitical and payment risks remain.
Q4 FY25 · mediumThe company plans INR 13,000 crore capex in FY26 and has placed orders for 11.2 GW; delays or cost overruns could strain returns.
Q1 FY25 · lowWhile management believes carbon taxes are change-in-law and pass-through, actual PPA clauses may vary.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY25 · Capacity expansion to 30 GW by FY30
Targeting 30 GW capacity by 2029-30 from current 15 GW, including 1,600 MW Mahan Phase 2 (by June 2027) and 4,800 MW brownfield expansions.
Q1 FY25 · 80% PPA tie-up for new capacity
New projects will have 80% capacity tied to long-term PPAs (25-year duration) and 20% kept for merchant sales.
Q1 FY25 · Inorganic acquisitions of Lanco Amarkantak and Coastal Energen
Awaiting NCLT approval for resolution plans; Lanco adds 600 MW (tied up) and 1,320 MW under construction; Coastal adds 1,200 MW (600 MW tied up).
Q2 FY25 · Capacity target of 30.67 GW by 2030
Plans to double capacity from ~15 GW to 30.67 GW through organic expansion (Mahan Phase II, Raipur, Raigarh, Mirzapur) and acquisitions (Lanco, Coastal).
Q2 FY25 · 80% PPA tie-up for new capacity
Management aims to secure long-term PPAs for 80% of new capacity, keeping 20% for merchant sales to balance risk and reward.
Q2 FY25 · Mahan Phase II completion by June 2027
The 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical expansion at Mahan is on track for commissioning by June 2027.
Q3 FY25 · Raipur expansion to commission within 4 years
The 1,600 MW Raipur expansion project (PPA with MSEDCL for 1,496 MW) is planned to commission within 4 years, though PPA allows 5 years.
Q3 FY25 · Korba (Lanco) expansion to commission in ~30 months
The 1,320 MW Korba expansion project is expected to commission in about 30 months from the call date, with estimated CapEx of INR 10,000 crore.
Q3 FY25 · Rohne coal mine to supply 5 MTPA after 2 years
The Rohne mine, acquired from Adani Enterprises, will supply 5 million tons of coal per annum after two years for the Mahan plant's untied capacity.
Q3 FY25 · Target 30 GW operating capacity by 2030
Management reiterated the target to achieve more than 30 GW of operating capacity by 2030, with BTG orders placed for 11.2 GW.
Q4 FY25 · Capex of INR 13,000 crore for FY26
The company plans to spend INR 13,000 crore on capital expenditure in FY2026 for its expansion projects.
Q4 FY25 · Mahan Phase II commissioning by March 2027
The 1,600 MW Mahan expansion project is expected to be commissioned around March or April 2027.
Q4 FY25 · Capacity expansion to 30,670 MW by 2030
Adani Power targets to increase its total capacity to 30,670 MW by 2030 through brownfield expansions.
Q4 FY25 · Funding capex through internal accruals
Management stated that the entire capex plan will be funded from internal accruals without additional debt.