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Merchant tariff volatility
View Risks →Adani Power Limited — Q4 FY25
Adani Power reported Q4 FY25 revenue of INR 14,522 crore (+5.3% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 5,098 crore (-3.3% YoY), with EBITDA margin contracting 310 bps to 35.1% due to lower merchant realizations (INR 5.03/unit vs INR 6.17/unit last year).
bullish
high
Financial stats pending filing verification
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Adani Power reported Q4 FY25 revenue of INR 14,522 crore (+5.3% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 5,098 crore (-3.3% YoY), with EBITDA margin contracting 310 bps to 35.1% due to lower merchant realizations (INR 5.03/unit vs INR 6.17/unit last year). PAT declined 5.7% to INR 2,599 crore. Full-year power sales grew 20.7% to 95.9 BU, supported by 2,300 MW capacity addition and 91% plant availability. Management guided for INR 13,000 crore capex in FY26, with 11.2 GW of ultra-supercritical capacity under construction and first commissioning (Mahan 1,600 MW) expected by March 2027. The company plans to fund capex entirely through internal accruals, maintaining net debt/EBITDA at 1.4-1.5x. Key risks include merchant tariff volatility and Bangladesh receivables of ~$900 million, though collections are improving.
अडानी पावर ने चौथी तिमाही (जनवरी-मार्च 2025) में 14,522 करोड़ रुपये की कमाई की, जो पिछले साल से 5.3% ज्यादा है। मुनाफा (EBITDA) 5,098 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 3.3% कम है। इसकी वजह बिजली की बिक्री दर में गिरावट (5.03 रुपये प्रति यूनिट बनाम 6.17 रुपये) है। शुद्ध मुनाफा (PAT) 5.7% घटकर 2,599 करोड़ रुपये रहा। पूरे साल बिजली बिक्री 20.7% बढ़कर 95.9 बिलियन यूनिट हुई। कंपनी अगले साल 13,000 करोड़ रुपये निवेश करेगी, जो अपने मुनाफे से देगी। 11.2 गीगावॉट के नए पावर प्लांट बन रहे हैं, पहला 2027 तक शुरू होगा। जोखिम: बिजली दरों में उतार-चढ़ाव और बांग्लादेश से 900 मिलियन डॉलर बकाया, हालांकि वसूली बेहतर हो रही है।
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Power Sales Volume (Q4)
26.4 BU
+19% YoY
Quarterly power sales volume increased 19% year-over-year to 26.4 billion units.
Merchant Realization (Q4)
INR 5.03/unit
-18.5% YoY
Merchant power realization declined to INR 5.03/unit from INR 6.17/unit in Q4 FY24.
Operating Capacity
17,550 MW
+15.1% YoY
Operating capacity increased by 2,300 MW during the year to 17,550 MW.
Bangladesh Receivables
$900M
-$60M QoQ
Gross outstanding from Bangladesh including LPS is ~$900 million, down ~$60 million in Q4.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Capex of INR 13,000 crore for FY26
The company plans to spend INR 13,000 crore on capital expenditure in FY2026 for its expansion projects.
NEW
Mahan Phase II commissioning by March 2027
The 1,600 MW Mahan expansion project is expected to be commissioned around March or April 2027.
NEW
Capacity expansion to 30,670 MW by 2030
Adani Power targets to increase its total capacity to 30,670 MW by 2030 through brownfield expansions.
NEW
Funding capex through internal accruals
Management stated that the entire capex plan will be funded from internal accruals without additional debt.
DROPPED
Raipur expansion to commission within 4 years
The 1,600 MW Raipur expansion project (PPA with MSEDCL for 1,496 MW) is planned to commission within 4 years, though PPA allows 5 years.
DROPPED
Korba (Lanco) expansion to commission in ~30 months
The 1,320 MW Korba expansion project is expected to commission in about 30 months from the call date, with estimated CapEx of INR 10,000 crore.
DROPPED
Rohne coal mine to supply 5 MTPA after 2 years
The Rohne mine, acquired from Adani Enterprises, will supply 5 million tons of coal per annum after two years for the Mahan plant's untied capacity.
DROPPED
Target 30 GW operating capacity by 2030
Management reiterated the target to achieve more than 30 GW of operating capacity by 2030, with BTG orders placed for 11.2 GW.
NEW RISK
Merchant tariff volatility
Merchant realizations declined 18.5% YoY to INR 5.03/unit in Q4, and further weakness could impact profitability.
NEW RISK
Bangladesh receivable overhang
Gross outstanding from Bangladesh stands at ~$900 million; while collections are improving, geopolitical and payment risks remain.
NEW RISK
Execution risk on large capex plan
The company plans INR 13,000 crore capex in FY26 and has placed orders for 11.2 GW; delays or cost overruns could strain returns.
NEW RISK
Low solar-hour power prices impacting merchant strategy
Analyst raised concern about afternoon power prices falling to INR 0.10-0.50/unit; management mitigated by using bilateral contracts but residual day-ahead exposure remains.
RISK GONE
Lower merchant realizations
Merchant realization fell to INR 4.54/unit from INR 6.86/unit last year due to lower demand and seasonality, impacting profitability.
RISK GONE
Demand growth slowdown
Analyst raised concern that if power demand growth slows to 5%, incremental thermal capacity requirement may be lower than expected.
RISK GONE
Competition from solar plus storage
Analyst questioned whether solar plus battery at INR 3-3.50/kWh could reduce need for new coal PPAs; management argued thermal remains essential for base load.
RISK GONE
Bangladesh payment reconciliation
Outstanding from Bangladesh is ~INR 800 crore, with ~INR 100 crore pending reconciliation due to formula interpretation issues.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25
Outstanding from Bangladesh is ~INR 800 crore, with ~INR 100 crore pending reconciliation due to formula interpretation issues.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management aims to secure long-term PPAs for 80% of new capacity, keeping 20% for merchant sales to balance risk and reward.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
The company plans to spend INR 13,000 crore on capital expenditure in FY2026 for its expansion projects.
Merchant realizations declined 18.5% YoY to INR 5.03/unit in Q4, and further weakness could impact profitability.
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