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ADANIPOWER Diversified 30 Jul 2024

Adani Power Limited — Q1 FY25

Adani Power delivered a strong Q1 FY25 with 29% revenue growth to INR 14,717 crore and 57% EBITDA growth to INR 6,290 crore, driven by higher PLF of 78% (vs 60% YoY) and lower imported coal costs.

bullish high
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Revenue ₹14,717 Cr +29%
EBITDA ₹6,290 Cr +57%
EBITDA Margin 42.7% +770bps
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Adani Power delivered a strong Q1 FY25 with 29% revenue growth to INR 14,717 crore and 57% EBITDA growth to INR 6,290 crore, driven by higher PLF of 78% (vs 60% YoY) and lower imported coal costs. Merchant contribution improved to INR 4.56/unit from INR 3.71/unit. The company is targeting capacity expansion from 15 GW to 30 GW by FY30, with 80% tied to long-term PPAs and 20% merchant. Key risks include execution delays in inorganic acquisitions (Lanco, Coastal) and potential carbon tax pass-through uncertainty. Management remains bullish on thermal power demand, expecting 80-90 GW new capacity needed by 2032.

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Execution delays in inorganic acquisitions

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Quarter Snapshot

Plant Load Factor (PLF) 78%
+18pp YoY

Improved from 60% in Q1 FY24 due to higher demand and full Godda capacity.

Sales Volume 24 BU
+37% YoY

Increased from 17.5 BU in Q1 FY24, driven by higher PPA and merchant dispatches.

Merchant Contribution per Unit INR 4.56
+INR 0.85 YoY

Improved from INR 3.71 due to lower coal costs and stable tariffs.

Target Capacity by FY30 30 GW
+100% vs current

Planned doubling from 15 GW through organic and inorganic expansions.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q1 FY25 vs Q2 FY25
2 new guidance2 dropped2 new risk1 risk resolved
NEW
Capacity expansion to 30 GW by FY30

Targeting 30 GW capacity by 2029-30 from current 15 GW, including 1,600 MW Mahan Phase 2 (by June 2027) and 4,800 MW brownfield expansions.

NEW
Inorganic acquisitions of Lanco Amarkantak and Coastal Energen

Awaiting NCLT approval for resolution plans; Lanco adds 600 MW (tied up) and 1,320 MW under construction; Coastal adds 1,200 MW (600 MW tied up).

UPDATED
80% PPA tie-up for new capacity

New projects will have 80% capacity tied to long-term PPAs (25-year duration) and 20% kept for merchant sales.

DROPPED
Capacity target of 30.67 GW by 2030

Plans to double capacity from ~15 GW to 30.67 GW through organic expansion (Mahan Phase II, Raipur, Raigarh, Mirzapur) and acquisitions (Lanco, Coastal).

DROPPED
Mahan Phase II completion by June 2027

The 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical expansion at Mahan is on track for commissioning by June 2027.

NEW RISK
Execution delays in inorganic acquisitions

NCLT approval for Lanco and Coastal is pending; any delay could impact capacity addition timeline.

NEW RISK
Carbon tax pass-through uncertainty

While management believes carbon taxes are change-in-law and pass-through, actual PPA clauses may vary.

RISK GONE
Execution risk in capacity expansion

Doubling capacity to 30 GW by 2030 involves significant project execution and regulatory approvals, with potential delays.

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Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Capacity expansion to 30 GW by FY30

Targeting 30 GW capacity by 2029-30 from current 15 GW, including 1,600 MW Mahan Phase 2 (by June 2027) and 4,800 MW brownfield expansions.

Top risk Execution delays in inorganic acquisitions

NCLT approval for Lanco and Coastal is pending; any delay could impact capacity addition timeline.

View Risks →