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Lower merchant realizations
View Risks →Adani Power Limited — Q3 FY25
Adani Power's Q3 FY25 results showed stable revenue of INR 13,434 crore, but continuing EBITDA declined 5% YoY to INR 4,786 crore due to lower merchant realizations (INR 4.54/unit vs INR 6.86/unit last year).
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Adani Power's Q3 FY25 results showed stable revenue of INR 13,434 crore, but continuing EBITDA declined 5% YoY to INR 4,786 crore due to lower merchant realizations (INR 4.54/unit vs INR 6.86/unit last year). PAT was strong at INR 2,940 crore, boosted by INR 1,400 crore one-time income from regulatory claims. Power sales volume grew 8% YoY, supported by higher operating capacity (17,550 MW) from recent acquisitions. Management highlighted robust nine-month recurring EBITDA growth of 22% to INR 16,478 crore and reiterated expansion plans to reach 30 GW by 2030, with BTG orders placed for 11.2 GW. Near-term demand is expected to pick up from January. Key risk: sustained lower merchant tariffs could pressure profitability if demand growth slows.
अडानी पावर की तीसरी तिमाही में कमाई 13,434 करोड़ रुपये रही, जो पिछले साल जैसी ही है। लेकिन कंपनी की कमाई (EBITDA) 5% घटकर 4,786 करोड़ रुपये हो गई, क्योंकि बाजार में बिजली बेचने की कीमत (मर्चेंट रेट) 6.86 रुपये से गिरकर 4.54 रुपये प्रति यूनिट हो गई। मुनाफा (PAT) 2,940 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जिसमें 1,400 करोड़ रुपये का एकमुश्त फायदा (रेगुलेटरी क्लेम) शामिल है। बिजली बिक्री 8% बढ़ी, क्योंकि कंपनी ने नए प्लांट खरीदकर अपनी क्षमता 17,550 मेगावॉट कर ली। कंपनी का कहना है कि नौ महीने में उसकी कमाई 22% बढ़कर 16,478 करोड़ रुपये हो गई। वह 2030 तक 30,000 मेगावॉट क्षमता बनाने की योजना पर काम कर रही है। जनवरी से बिजली की मांग बढ़ने की उम्मीद है। लेकिन अगर बाजार में बिजली के दाम कम रहे और मांग धीमी पड़ी, तो मुनाफा कम हो सकता है।
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Power Sales Volume Growth
8%
+8% YoY
Power sales volume grew 8% YoY in Q3 FY25, driven by higher operating capacity from acquisitions.
Merchant Realization
INR 4.54/unit
-34% YoY
Merchant realization dropped to INR 4.54/unit from INR 6.86/unit last year due to lower demand and seasonality.
Consolidated PLF
63.9%
-470bps YoY
PLF declined to 63.9% from 68.6% last year due to demand variability and strong base effect.
Operating Capacity
17,550 MW
+15% YoY
Operating capacity increased to 17,550 MW from 15,250 MW last year, mainly due to acquisitions.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Raipur expansion to commission within 4 years
The 1,600 MW Raipur expansion project (PPA with MSEDCL for 1,496 MW) is planned to commission within 4 years, though PPA allows 5 years.
NEW
Korba (Lanco) expansion to commission in ~30 months
The 1,320 MW Korba expansion project is expected to commission in about 30 months from the call date, with estimated CapEx of INR 10,000 crore.
NEW
Rohne coal mine to supply 5 MTPA after 2 years
The Rohne mine, acquired from Adani Enterprises, will supply 5 million tons of coal per annum after two years for the Mahan plant's untied capacity.
NEW
Target 30 GW operating capacity by 2030
Management reiterated the target to achieve more than 30 GW of operating capacity by 2030, with BTG orders placed for 11.2 GW.
DROPPED
Capacity expansion to 30 GW by FY30
Targeting 30 GW capacity by 2029-30 from current 15 GW, including 1,600 MW Mahan Phase 2 (by June 2027) and 4,800 MW brownfield expansions.
DROPPED
80% PPA tie-up for new capacity
New projects will have 80% capacity tied to long-term PPAs (25-year duration) and 20% kept for merchant sales.
DROPPED
Inorganic acquisitions of Lanco Amarkantak and Coastal Energen
Awaiting NCLT approval for resolution plans; Lanco adds 600 MW (tied up) and 1,320 MW under construction; Coastal adds 1,200 MW (600 MW tied up).
NEW RISK
Lower merchant realizations
Merchant realization fell to INR 4.54/unit from INR 6.86/unit last year due to lower demand and seasonality, impacting profitability.
NEW RISK
Demand growth slowdown
Analyst raised concern that if power demand growth slows to 5%, incremental thermal capacity requirement may be lower than expected.
NEW RISK
Competition from solar plus storage
Analyst questioned whether solar plus battery at INR 3-3.50/kWh could reduce need for new coal PPAs; management argued thermal remains essential for base load.
RISK GONE
Execution delays in inorganic acquisitions
NCLT approval for Lanco and Coastal is pending; any delay could impact capacity addition timeline.
RISK GONE
Merchant market volatility
20% merchant exposure exposes earnings to tariff fluctuations; management expects stable demand but risk remains.
RISK GONE
Carbon tax pass-through uncertainty
While management believes carbon taxes are change-in-law and pass-through, actual PPA clauses may vary.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management aims to secure long-term PPAs for 80% of new capacity, keeping 20% for merchant sales to balance risk and reward.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Doubling capacity to 30 GW by 2030 involves significant project execution and regulatory approvals, with potential delays.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Merchant power tariffs could decline if demand softens or coal prices rise, impacting the 20% open capacity.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
The 1,600 MW Raipur expansion project (PPA with MSEDCL for 1,496 MW) is planned to commission within 4 years, though PPA allows 5 years.
Merchant realization fell to INR 4.54/unit from INR 6.86/unit last year due to lower demand and seasonality, impacting profitability.
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