Dixon Technologies (India) Management Guidance Tracker

Motorola volumes expected to increase to 2 million per quarter from Q3, and Itel/Xiaomi production to ramp up from September.

Management expects to produce around 25 million smartphones in FY25, driven by existing customers and two new large global brands.

Management guided for FY25 smartphone volumes of 28-30 million units, excluding Samsung, up from 6.5 million in FY24.

Telecom segment revenue expected to double from ~INR 3,000 crore in FY25 to ~INR 6,000 crore in FY26, driven by new capacities and order book.

Management reiterated the target of 42-43 million mobile phone units for FY26, excluding Vivo JV volumes.

Order books for Q2 indicate at least 15% sequential growth in smartphone volumes, driven by festive season and export ramp-up.

Management expects mobile phone volumes to reach 55-60 million units in FY27, driven by Vivo JV ramp-up and new ODM partnership.

Q Tech to expand camera module capacity from 40 million to 190-200 million units per annum over the next couple of years.

New 1.2 million unit capacity refrigerator plant in Greater Noida to start commercial production in October-December quarter.

Mass production for Lenovo tablets to start in current quarter; notebooks expected by August-September 2024.

Planned investment of $30 million (₹250 crore) for a 25 million unit display module facility in Delhi NCR, with technology partner finalized.

The display module JV with HKC is expected to commence production by end of this fiscal or Q1 next fiscal, with initial capacity of 2 million units per month.

Manufacturing of display modules in partnership with HKC will commence by Q1 end or Q2 beginning of next financial year.

Expanding direct cool refrigerator capacity from 1.2 million to 2 million units per annum, with 50% revenue growth expected in FY26.

HKC JV display module trial production to start by Q2 FY27, with first phase capacity of 24 million units per annum for smartphones.

Capital expenditure guided at INR 400-420 crore for the full year, primarily for mobile expansion, refrigerator project, and new facilities.

Similar level of capex as FY24, subject to budget finalization, to support capacity expansion and new customer programs.

Management expects FY25 capital expenditure to be lower than the ₹570 crore spent in FY24, with major capacities already created.

The company plans to invest INR 500-600 crore in capital expenditure this fiscal, similar to last year's INR 550 crore, for capacity expansion and new facilities.

Total CapEx for FY25 is expected to be INR 550-580 Cr, with INR 360 Cr already spent in H1. HKC display JV alone will require ~INR 375 Cr.

Capital expenditure for FY26 expected to be in the range of INR 900-1,000 crore, similar to FY25.

Total CapEx for FY26 is expected to be INR 1,150-1,200 crore, including INR 750-800 crore for camera and display JVs and INR 300-400 crore for capacity expansion.

Management sees potential to build a $200 million export business in lighting over the next couple of years, driven by Europe and US.

Management expects IT hardware revenue to reach INR 3,500-4,000 crore on an annualized basis, driven by contracts with Lenovo, Acer, and two additional global brands.

Management expects IT hardware (laptops/tablets) to generate INR 4,500-5,000 Cr annual revenue within 2-3 years, driven by partnerships with HP, ASUS, Acer, and Lenovo.

Telecom segment is targeting ~INR 2,400 Cr revenue this fiscal, up from ~INR 700 Cr last year, with next year's order book at INR 6,000-7,000 Cr.

IT hardware segment (laptops, tablets) expected to generate INR 2,500-3,000 crore revenue in FY26, supported by a potential JV with a global ODM.

Management guided for smartphone volumes of 43-44 million units in FY26, up from 28.3 million in FY25.

Targeting 60-65 million smartphone units in FY27, including 18-20 million from Vivo JV.

IT hardware segment is expected to generate INR 1,200-1,300 crore revenue in FY26, with a JV with Inventec operational by Q1 FY27.

Telecom segment, including new US radio order, is expected to grow to approximately $1 billion in revenue within two years.

IT hardware revenue expected to grow to INR 3,500-4,000 crore in FY27 from ~INR 1,500 crore in FY26, driven by strong order book.

Management targets ~15-17% revenue growth to INR 56,000 crores in FY27, excluding any Vivo contribution.

IT hardware segment expected to grow 3x to over INR 4,000 crores, driven by laptop/tablet/desktop orders and Inventec JV.

Telecom segment to grow from INR 5,000 crores to INR 7,500-8,000 crores, led by microwave radio exports and design-led partnerships.

Despite start-up costs, management expects mobile margins to sustain in the 3.2% range with potential slight improvement.

CFO Saurabh Gupta indicated that consolidated EBITDA margin should be around 4% for FY25, similar to FY24 levels.

Management indicated that consolidated EBITDA margins will remain in the range of 3.9-4%, similar to current levels.

Management expects margin expansion to start reflecting in 15-18 months as the component ecosystem (HKC display, camera modules, mechanicals) stabilizes, targeting 27% BOM capture.

Backward integration into components like display modules, mechanicals, and camera modules will expand mobile EBITDA margins by 100-120 bps starting H2 FY26.

Management expects EBITDA margin expansion of 120-130 bps in FY27, driven by backward integration and operating leverage, offsetting PLI benefits.

With backward integration and operating leverage, EBITDA margins are expected to improve to 4-4.5% from current ~3.8%.

Management expects mobile phone EBITDA margins to remain in the 2.8%-3.2% range, with PLI contributing ~0.5-0.6%.

EBITDA margins expected to expand by 40-50 bps from FY26 levels once camera module and display backward integration fully ramps up in FY27-28.