Coal India — Q3 FY24
Coal India reported a strong Q3 FY24 with highest-ever nine-month revenue of INR 104,914 crore (+5% YoY) and PAT of INR 23,849 crore.
bullish
high
✓ Verified against BSE filing
Claim Ledger
Did management answer the analysts?
Every material analyst question, graded on whether management actually answered it — with the verbatim exchange and quantitative claims checked against filed numbers.
50%Questions answered4Evaded / deflected12Questions audited
Partial answer
High priority
Any change to 780 million ton volume target?
Asked by Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
Management confirmed target but revealed a likely gap of ~10 million tons, so not fully direct.
acknowledged target but admitted possible shortfall of 8-9 million tons
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Question
So the volume so far has been very strong and we had guided for around 780 million tons. Any change on the numbers or we would largely be achieving that?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
We are kept at target. Another 39 days to go. 780 million tons is our target and we are all set to go. ... approximately around 770 million it is there for sure.
Answered
Medium priority
Why is e-auction volume below 15% target for H2?
Asked by Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
Management provided a specific current percentage (17%) and explained variability with demand.
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Question
this e-auction volume, if we see this quarter was close to or quite less than what we had given as a target for second half of 15% of the volumes which we'll be doing through the e-auction route. So any comments there?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
In February, it is 17%. Till 15th February, it is 17%. It is close to that 15%, whatever you are telling, it is close to that, but subject to the demand, it may vary little plus minus.
Partial answer
High priority
How will e-auction premium move given volume increase?
Asked by Alok Deora, Motilal Oswal
Management gave a range but did not quantify the expected decline or timing.
no precise guidance on future premium
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Question
So the premium, e-auction premium, we saw a pretty sharp jump in the third quarter of close to it moving close to 117% also. So that will again now come down because of your increase in the volume through the e-auction route? How do we see the e-auction premium moving?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
Slightly it will come down. ... Around 36%-48% it is varying, but we are having it in that range.
Evasive
High priority
What e-auction premium trend as volumes approach 1 billion tons?
Asked by Ashish Kejriwal, Nuvama Wealth Management
Management did not provide any quantitative expectation, only generalities.
no specific forecastgeneric statement about demand
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Question
as volumes approach 1 billion tons in 2 years, so what kind of e-auction premium movement do you expect?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
This E-Auction premiums may vary subject to the demand quarter to quarter, number one. ... Definitely. Stocks at power plants, if it piles up and our side also stocks are there, as per the demand appetite, it is vis-à-vis related with the appetite that auction premiums.
Evasive
Medium priority
What is the dividend policy basis?
Asked by Ashish Kejriwal, Nuvama Wealth Management
Management did not disclose the specific formula or components used.
referred to websiteno formula given
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Question
So what is the dividend on which you the policy on which you decide dividend? This is like PAT plus non-cash expenses including OBR, and you reduce CAPEX on that?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
Dividend policy is already hosted on the website. So dividend, we are deciding based on the requirement and the CAPEX in the future year. Accordingly, we are balancing the shareholder expectation as well as the company's CAPEX program.
Evasive
Medium priority
What is the impact of changing accounting policy for shipping activity?
Asked by Indrajit Agarwal, CLSA
Management did not quantify the impact or provide specific details on the change.
no quantitative impact givenvague explanation
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Question
in a press release, you have mentioned that you're looking to change the accounting policy for shipping activity adjustments. So if you can highlight what exactly are we trying to do here and what could be the impact?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
This is in correspondence to international accountancy standards. There are some observations going on last 3-4 years. We wanted to rectify and follow the international accounting policy.
Answered
High priority
What is CAPEX target for FY24 and FY25?
Asked by Amit Lahoti, Emkay
Management gave a clear number for CAPEX target.
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Question
Sir, what is your CAPEX target for FY24 and FY25?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
It is almost INR 17,500 crore. ... 1,500 crore more, 17,500.
Answered
High priority
Why did e-auction premium drop from 116% to 40-50%?
Asked by Venkatesh Subramanian, Logitree Investment Advisors
Management explained the reason and gave a forward-looking range.
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Question
until December, we had 116% premium ... suddenly, you are talking about 40%-50%. Is there any particular reason why it's happening that way? And what do you estimate it for the fourth quarter going forward?
Mukesh Agrawal, Director Finance
the premiums, they are linked. They were earlier being linked with the imported coal prices. ... with increased availability of domestic coal, the premiums have started now actually getting away from the linkage with the imported coal prices. ... Going ahead, we think this is going to be the order of the day somewhere around 40%-50%.
Partial answer
High priority
Will blended realization be maintained in FY25 despite lower e-auction premiums?
Asked by Venkatesh Subramanian, Logitree Investment Advisors
Management gave a general direction but no concrete plan or quantitative guidance.
no specific strategy or number given
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Question
so far, our realization is broadly, the blended realization is about INR 1,724 per ton. So considering that going forward, the e-auction premiums might moderate downwards, would you still have some strategy internally to maintain the overall realization, sir, in FY25?
Mukesh Agrawal, Director Finance
The overall realization means we have to offer more coal to the non-regulated sector where the premiums are very high. ... Volumes are going to help us.
Evasive
High priority
Will increased coal supply lead to structural decline in auction premiums?
Asked by Amit Murarka, Axis Capital
Management avoided answering the structural decline question and pivoted to demand.
did not address premium decline directlyfocused on demand growth
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Question
if, let's say, what I understand is you're saying that there are some coal stocks have increased. So in years ahead, when more captive production comes in, how do you think there will be marketability of all this increased production that you have? And could it lead to a structural decline in the auction premiums in the countries?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
Demand is increasing. You should understand the overall demand is there. ... 80,000 MW power plants are coming by 2030. ... This impact, imports can be reduced.
Partial answer
Medium priority
Is employee cost guidance of INR 46,000 crore still valid?
Asked by Ashish Kejriwal, Nuvama Wealth Management
Management gave a directional decrease but did not explicitly confirm the guided number.
did not confirm or deny the INR 46,000 crore figure
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Question
employee costs, we have guided earlier that we could end up with around INR 46,000 crore. Are we still maintaining the guidance or is there any change for this year?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
We are expecting this year, employees' cost will be less than the last year to the tune of around INR 2,000 crore.
Answered
High priority
What is the production target for next year?
Asked by Ketan Jain, Avendus Spark
Management clearly stated it is a production target.
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Question
This 838 metric tons of target next year, is it production or dispatch target?
Shri P M Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director
It is production. Dispatch also at the same range it will be.