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Coal India — Q3 FY24
Coal India reported a strong Q3 FY24 with highest-ever nine-month revenue of INR 104,914 crore (+5% YoY) and PAT of INR 23,849 crore.
bullish
high
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Coal India reported a strong Q3 FY24 with highest-ever nine-month revenue of INR 104,914 crore (+5% YoY) and PAT of INR 23,849 crore. Production grew 11% YoY to 531.9 MT, driven by robust demand from power plants and improved logistics. Management maintained FY24 production guidance of 780 MT (likely ~770 MT due to SCCL lag) and set FY25 target at 838 MT. E-auction premiums moderated to 36-48% in Jan-Feb from Q3's 116% due to higher domestic availability. CAPEX guidance for FY25 is INR 17,500 crore, funded largely through internal accruals. Key risks include potential further decline in e-auction premiums and execution challenges in SCCL's ramp-up.
कोल इंडिया ने तीसरी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। नौ महीने में सबसे ज्यादा कमाई 1,04,914 करोड़ रुपये रही, जो पिछले साल से 5% ज्यादा है। मुनाफा 23,849 करोड़ रुपये रहा। कोयला उत्पादन 11% बढ़कर 531.9 मिलियन टन हो गया, क्योंकि बिजली संयंत्रों की मांग बढ़ी और परिवहन बेहतर हुआ। कंपनी ने इस साल 780 मिलियन टन उत्पादन का लक्ष्य रखा है, लेकिन संभवतः 770 मिलियन टन ही होगा। अगले साल का लक्ष्य 838 मिलियन टन है। ई-नीलामी में कोयले के दाम पहले 116% बढ़े थे, अब घटकर 36-48% रह गए हैं। अगले साल 17,500 करोड़ रुपये खर्च करने की योजना है, जो कंपनी के अपने फंड से आएगा। खतरा यह है कि ई-नीलामी के दाम और गिर सकते हैं और एससीसीएल का उत्पादन बढ़ाना मुश्किल हो सकता है।
Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks4 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Declining e-auction premiums
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Coal Production (9M FY24)
531.9 MT
+11% YoY
Highest ever nine-month coal production, driven by strong demand and operational efficiency.
Overburden Removal (9M FY24)
1,404.85 MCM
+22% YoY
Significant increase in overburden removal to prepare for future production growth.
Power Plant Coal Stock
38 MT
+? YoY
Highest ever power plant stock at this time of year, indicating ample supply.
E-Auction Premium (Jan-Feb 2024)
36-48%
-68pp vs Q3 FY24
Premium declined sharply from Q3's 116% due to increased domestic coal availability and lower import parity.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
CAPEX of INR 17,500 crore for FY25
CAPEX target for FY25 is INR 17,500 crore, including coal mining expansion, solar projects, and diversification initiatives.
UPDATED
FY24 production target of ~780 MT
Management expects to achieve ~770 MT production for FY24, slightly below the original 780 MT target due to SCCL lag, but with efforts to minimize the gap.
UPDATED
FY25 production target of 838 MT
Ministry has set a production target of 838 MT for FY25, down from initial 850 MT due to high coal stocks, with a review in April.
UPDATED
E-auction volume to be at least 15% of production
Management aims to maintain e-auction volumes at 15% or more of production, with potential to increase up to 20% if demand permits.
DROPPED
MDO production to reach 55-60 million tons by FY26
MDO projects are expected to contribute 20-25 million tons in FY25 and 55-60 million tons in FY26.
NEW RISK
Declining e-auction premiums
E-auction premiums have fallen sharply from 116% in Q3 to 36-48% in Jan-Feb, which could pressure realizations if the trend continues.
NEW RISK
SCCL production shortfall
SCCL is lagging its target by 8-9 MT due to land issues and EC clearances, posing a risk to overall production targets.
NEW RISK
Accounting policy change impact on tax
Change in shipping activity adjustment accounting may lead to tax implications, though management expects limited net impact.
NEW RISK
Receivables buildup
Trade receivables increased from INR 13,000 crore to INR 17,000 crore, driven by delayed payments from power utilities, which could strain cash flows.
RISK GONE
Land acquisition delays at MCL
MCL's Basundhara coal field faced a 26-day stoppage due to land compensation disputes, impacting production.
RISK GONE
Railway rake shortages in SECL and MCL
Management acknowledged daily rake shortages of 5 rakes in SECL and MCL, constraining dispatches.
RISK GONE
E-auction premium volatility
E-auction premiums have been volatile, ranging from 50-60% to 90%, dependent on demand and import prices.
RISK GONE
No near-term FSA price hike for power sector
Management ruled out any FSA price hike for the power sector in the next 7-8 months, limiting revenue growth.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects to achieve ~770 MT production for FY24, slightly below the original 780 MT target due to SCCL lag, but with efforts to minimize...
E-auction premiums have fallen sharply from 116% in Q3 to 36-48% in Jan-Feb, which could pressure realizations if the trend continues.
View Risks →