Coal India Management Guidance Tracker
12 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 3 quarters.
Growth
Management confirmed the annual production target of 780 million tons for FY24, with H1 production up 12% YoY.
Q2 FY24FY25 production target of 851 million tonsTrackedManagement guided for FY25 production of 851 million tons, implying ~9% YoY growth.
Q2 FY24MDO production to reach 55-60 million tons by FY26TrackedMDO projects are expected to contribute 20-25 million tons in FY25 and 55-60 million tons in FY26.
Q3 FY24FY24 production target of ~780 MTActiveManagement expects to achieve ~770 MT production for FY24, slightly below the original 780 MT target due to SCCL lag, but with efforts to minimize the gap.
Q3 FY24FY25 production target of 838 MTTrackedMinistry has set a production target of 838 MT for FY25, down from initial 850 MT due to high coal stocks, with a review in April.
Q4 FY25FY26 production target of 875 million tonsTrackedManagement guided for production of 875 MT and offtake of 900 MT in FY26, implying ~3% growth.
Revenue
Management expects e-auction volumes to be 15% of production in H2 FY24.
Q3 FY24E-auction volume to be at least 15% of productionActiveManagement aims to maintain e-auction volumes at 15% or more of production, with potential to increase up to 20% if demand permits.
Q4 FY25E-auction premium expected in 30-40% rangeActiveManagement expects e-auction premiums to settle in the 30-40% range, in line with historical averages excluding abnormal years.
Capex
CAPEX target for FY25 is INR 17,500 crore, including coal mining expansion, solar projects, and diversification initiatives.
Q4 FY25CapEx guidance of ~INR 20,000 crore per year for next 3-4 yearsTrackedManagement indicated regular mining CapEx of ~INR 20,000 crore annually, excluding diversification projects.