Canara Bank Management Guidance Tracker
48 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Margins
Management guided for net interest margin to remain above 3%, with Q1 NIM at 3.05%.
Q2 FY24NIM expected in 2.9%-3.05% rangeActiveManagement guided NIM between 2.9% and 3.05% for coming quarters, depending on liquidity conditions.
Q2 FY24Credit cost guidance of ~1%ActiveManagement expects credit cost to remain around 1% until PCR reaches 95%.
Q3 FY24Cost-to-income ratio below 45% by March 2024ActiveDespite one-time wage provisions, management is confident of achieving cost-to-income below 45% by Q4 FY24.
Q3 FY24NIM to be maintained near 3%ActiveNet interest margin is expected to remain close to 3% despite pressure from rising deposit costs.
Q4 FY24NIM to be maintained at 2.95%-3% for FY25TrackedDespite tight liquidity, management expects NIM to remain in the 2.95%-3% range, with potential upside if liquidity eases.
Q4 FY24Cost-to-income ratio to be maintained around 47%TrackedManagement expects to keep cost-to-income ratio at or below 47% despite wage revision and IT investments.
Q1 FY25NIM guidance of 2.95% for FY25TrackedManagement expects NIM to improve from 2.90% in Q1 to around 2.95% by year-end, driven by seasonal improvement in subsequent quarters.
Q2 FY25Credit cost below 1% for FY25TrackedCredit cost guidance of 1.10% is expected to be undershot; management sees it below 1% for the full year.
Q3 FY25Cost-to-income ratio around 47-48%ActiveManagement expects to maintain cost-to-income ratio in the 47-48% range, with annual expense growth of 6-7%.
Q4 FY25Return on Assets (RoA) guidance of 1.05% for FY26TrackedTarget RoA of 1.05% for FY26, with conservative approach and potential to surpass.
Q4 FY25NIM expected to be maintained at 2.75-2.80%TrackedNet interest margin expected to be in the range of 2.75-2.80% for FY26, with some stress in H1 but recovery in H2.
Q1 FY26NIM to stabilize around 2.5% in Q2, gradual improvement in H2ActiveNIM likely to bottom at 2.5% in Q2 FY26, with gradual recovery in H2 as deposit costs reprice, assuming no further rate cuts.
Q1 FY26ROA guidance of 1.05% for FY26TrackedManagement reiterated ROA target of 1.05% for the full year, with Q1 already at 1.14%.
Q1 FY26Credit cost guidance of 90bps for FY26TrackedCredit cost expected at 90bps for the year, though management expects to outperform due to improving asset quality.
Q2 FY26Credit cost to remain below 1%TrackedManagement expects credit cost to stay well below 1% going forward, even with ECL implementation in March 2027.
Q3 FY26NIM to remain in 2.45%-2.50% rangeActiveManagement expects net interest margin to stabilize at 2.45-2.50% even if further repo rate cuts occur, supported by RAM growth and deposit repricing.
Q4 FY26NIM to remain in 2.5-2.6% rangeTrackedNet interest margin expected to stay between 2.5% and 2.6% in FY27.
Q4 FY26ROA above 1%TrackedManagement confident of delivering return on assets above 1% despite ECL implementation.
Growth
Management expects loan growth in the range of 12-14% for the full year, with Q1 domestic credit growing over 3%.
Q2 FY24Loan growth target of 12% for FY24TrackedManagement expects advances to grow around 12% for the full year, driven by RAM segment.
Q3 FY24Full-year credit growth of ~12%ActiveManagement expects domestic advances to grow around 11.5-12% for FY24, driven by RAM and selective corporate lending.
Q4 FY24Credit growth of ~12% for FY25TrackedManagement guided for 10% minimum but expects to achieve around 12% credit growth, driven by RAM and selective corporate lending.
Q4 FY24CASA ratio target of 33% by FY25TrackedManagement aims to achieve 33% CASA ratio by end of FY25 through new products and digital initiatives.
Q1 FY25Credit growth guidance of ~10% for FY25TrackedAdvances growth target of 10% for the full year, with Q1 already at 9.86% despite shedding INR 22,500 crore of low-yielding corporate loans.
Q1 FY25Gross NPA target of 3.5% by FY25 endTrackedManagement guided for gross NPA to decline to 3.5% by year-end, from 4.14% in Q1, supported by controlled slippages and recoveries.
Q2 FY25Credit growth of ~11% for FY25ActiveManagement expects full-year credit growth of around 11%, driven by 3.5-4% quarterly growth in H2, despite shedding low-yielding advances.
Q2 FY25RAM sector growth of 11%+ActiveRAM (Retail, Agriculture, MSME) credit is expected to grow faster than corporate, with retail growing 13-14% and MSME 9-10%.
Q2 FY25Gold loan growth of 16-17%ActiveGold loan portfolio is expected to grow 16-17% this year, driven by a new digitized product for metro cities.
Q3 FY25Advances growth target of 10% for FY25ActiveManagement expects to achieve 10% advances growth for the full year, with current growth at 10.45% already exceeding the target.
Q4 FY25Advances growth guidance of 10-11% for FY26TrackedManagement expects loan book to grow at 10-11% in FY26, consistent with historical guidance.
Q1 FY26Credit growth of 10-11% for FY26ActiveManagement expects overall credit growth of 10-11%, with RAM growing at 15% and corporate at 10%.
Q2 FY26CASA ratio target of 32% by March 2026TrackedManagement reiterated its guidance to achieve a CASA ratio of 32% by end of FY26, despite balance sheet growing at 14%.
Q3 FY26Credit growth to sustain at 13%+ActiveAdvances growth guidance of 10-11% has been surpassed; management expects to maintain current 13.59% growth momentum in Q4.
Q4 FY26Credit growth guidance of 11-12% for FY27TrackedManagement guided for 11-12% loan growth, but expects to exceed it as in prior years.
Other
Management guided for gross NPA to decline to 4.50% by March 2024.
Q1 FY24PCR to cross 90%ActiveManagement aims to increase provision coverage ratio to above 90% through additional provisions each quarter.
Q2 FY24PCR target of 90% by end of FY24TrackedManagement aims to increase provision coverage ratio to 90% by March 2024.
Q3 FY25CD ratio to be maintained below 78%ActiveThe bank aims to keep its global credit-deposit ratio below 78% to manage liquidity and cost of funds.
Q3 FY25LCR to be restored to 115-120%ActiveAfter the proposed RBI LCR guidelines, the bank plans to restore LCR to 115-120% by raising longer-tenure deposits at 7.3-7.4%.
Q4 FY25PCR target of 95%+TrackedProvision coverage ratio targeted to cross 95% to strengthen balance sheet against shocks.
Q3 FY26ECL impact of INR 10,000 crore amortized over 4 yearsTrackedExpected credit loss implementation from April 2027 will require additional provisions of ~INR 10,000 crore, to be spread over four years, with annual impact of INR 2,000-2,500 crore.
Q3 FY26Recovery from written-off accounts to continue at INR 2,000+ crore per quarterActiveManagement expects to maintain recovery run-rate of over INR 2,000 crore per quarter from written-off accounts, supported by multiple recovery channels.
Q4 FY26ECL impact of INR 10,000 crore, absorbable in one goTrackedExpected additional provisions of INR 10,000 crore under ECL, can be absorbed in one year or staggered over four years.
Capex
Bank plans to raise remaining AT1 and Tier 2 bonds of INR 6,100 crore when market conditions are favorable.
Q1 FY25Capital raising plan of INR 8,000 crore via AT1 and Tier 2 bondsActiveBoard has approved raising INR 4,000 crore in AT1 bonds and INR 4,500 crore in Tier 2 bonds, subject to favorable market conditions.