Bharat Petroleum Corporation Management Guidance Tracker
36 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 9 quarters.
Capex
Management expects to spend INR 10,000 crore in capital expenditure during FY24, with INR 1,464 crore spent in Q1.
Q2 FY24Capex target of ₹10,000 crore for FY24ActiveBPCL aims to spend ₹10,000 crore in capex for FY24, with ₹5,191 crore already achieved in H1.
Q2 FY24Five-year capex plan of ₹1,50,000 croreTrackedBPCL outlined a ₹1,50,000 crore capex plan over five years, including ₹49,000 crore for Bina petrochemical complex and ₹26,000 crore for CGD.
Q3 FY24Capex of ₹1.5-1.7 lakh crore over 5 yearsTrackedPlanned capital outlay includes ₹75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, ₹32,000 crore upstream, ₹25,000 crore each for gas and marketing, ₹10,000 crore for renewables.
Q4 FY24Capex of INR 1.7 lakh crore over five years (FY24-29)TrackedPlanned investments include INR 75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, INR 20,000 crore for marketing, INR 25,000 crore for gas, INR 10,000 crore for green energy, and INR 32,000 crore for upstream.
Q4 FY24FY25 capex target of INR 15,000-16,000 croreActiveBreakdown: INR 4,200 crore for refinery/petchem, INR 7,000 crore for marketing (including CGD), and INR 2,000-2,500 crore for BPRL equity infusion.
Q1 FY25FY25 Capex of INR 16,400 croreActiveManagement guided for total capex of INR 16,400 crore in FY25, with INR 2,438 crore spent in Q1.
Q2 FY25CapEx for FY25: ₹15,000-16,000 croreActiveManagement expects to end the year with CapEx in the range of ₹15,000-16,000 crore, slightly below the original plan of ₹16,400 crore.
Q3 FY25Capex guidance for FY26 at ~INR 19,000 croreTrackedIndicative capex for FY26 is around INR 19,000 crore, with major allocations to CGD expansion and Bina project.
Q4 FY25FY26 CapEx of INR 20,000 croreTrackedCapital expenditure for FY26 is budgeted at INR 20,000 crore, with INR 5,900 crore for refineries, INR 5,600 crore for marketing, and INR 2,400 crore for pipelines.
Q4 FY25CapEx ramp-up to INR 30,000 crore by FY28TrackedManagement expects CapEx to increase to INR 25,000 crore in FY27 and INR 30,000 crore in FY28, excluding the Andhra Pradesh greenfield project.
Q1 FY26FY26 capex guidance of INR 20,000 croreActiveManagement reiterated capex of INR 20,000 crore for FY26, with INR 2,382 crore spent in Q1.
Q1 FY26FY27 capex expected at INR 22,000-25,000 croreTrackedManagement guided FY27 capex in the range of INR 22,000-25,000 crore based on current approved projects.
Expansion
BPCL plans to add approximately 1,000 new retail outlets during FY24; 111 were added in Q1.
Q1 FY24Add 500 CNG stations by FY24 endActiveBPCL aims to add another 500 CNG stations at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.
Q2 FY24Add 1,000 new retail outlets in FY24ActiveBPCL plans to add 1,000 new retail outlets during FY24, with 300 added in H1.
Q2 FY24Add 500 CNG facilities by FY24 endActiveBPCL aims to add 500 CNG facilities at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.
Q4 FY24Refining capacity expansion to 45 MMT by FY29TrackedBrownfield expansion of Bina Refinery and debottlenecking of existing refineries to increase capacity from current levels to 45 MMT per annum by FY 2029.
Q4 FY24Add 4,000 new retail outlets by FY29TrackedPlan to expand network from 22,000 to 26,000 outlets; FY25 target is 1,300 new outlets.
Q1 FY25Retail network to reach 23,000 outlets by year-endActiveBPCL plans to expand its retail outlet network to 23,000 by end of FY25, adding ~1,300 outlets during the year.
Q1 FY25Bina petrochemical project commissioning by FY28-29TrackedThe integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina (INR 49,000 crore) is targeted for commissioning in FY28-29.
Q2 FY25CNG station additions: 300 in FY25, 800 over next 2-3 yearsTrackedBPCL plans to add 300 CNG stations in FY25 and ~800 over the next 2-3 years, targeting 15-16% CAGR in CGD volumes.
Q3 FY25Bina petrochemical project completion by May 2027TrackedThe integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina, with a total capex of INR 49,000 crore, is on schedule for completion by May 2027.
Q4 FY25Mozambique project restart by July 2025ActiveOperator expects force majeure to be lifted by July 2025, with project completion targeted by July 2028.
Q1 FY26Retail outlet network target of 25,000 by FY26 endTrackedBPCL aims to expand its retail outlet network to 25,000 by the end of the current financial year.
Growth
A large petrochemical complex with 2.2 MTPA capacity and refinery expansion to 11 MMTPA is planned, with commissioning by 2028.
Q3 FY24Mozambique LNG restart by mid-2024ActiveForce majeure expected to be lifted around June/July 2024; work to commence shortly after.
Q3 FY24Petrol demand growth 4-5%, diesel 1.5-2% over 5 yearsTrackedManagement expects MS growth of 4-5% and HSD growth of 1.5-2% CAGR over next 5 years despite EV adoption.
Q1 FY25Ethanol blending target of 15% in current quarterActiveBPCL aims to achieve 15% ethanol blending in the current quarter, up from 14.13% in Q1.
Q2 FY25Retail demand growth: MS 6%, HSD 1.5% for FY25TrackedManagement estimates retail demand growth of 6% for petrol and 1.5% for diesel in FY25, with HSD urban demand slower due to CNG transition.
Q3 FY25Renewable energy target of 2 GW by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030TrackedBPCL aims to achieve 2 GW of renewable capacity by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030, with a capex of INR 10,000 crore over the next two years.
Q1 FY26Russian crude share to remain 30-35%ActiveManagement expects Russian crude procurement to stay around 30-35% as long as no new sanctions are imposed.
Other
Margins
Assuming Saudi CP at $620-630/ton, management estimates monthly LPG under-recovery of ₹900-1,000 crore, implying ~₹3,000 crore per quarter.
Q3 FY25CGD business to turn EBITDA positive from FY26TrackedManagement expects the CGD business to generate positive EBITDA from FY26 onwards, driven by volume growth and cost pass-through.
Q4 FY25GRM guidance of $7-$9/bblActiveAssuming current spreads and Russian discounts of ~$3/bbl continue, management expects GRMs in the $7-$9/bbl range.