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BPCL Diversified 01 Nov 2023

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited — Q2 FY24

BPCL reported a stellar Q2 FY24 with PAT of ₹8,501 crore, driven by robust refining margins (GRM of $18.49/bbl) and strong marketing performance.

bullish high
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Revenue ₹1,03,044 Cr
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin 13%
Duration
Read Time 1 min read

✓ Verified against BSE filing

2-Minute Summary

✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

BPCL reported a stellar Q2 FY24 with PAT of ₹8,501 crore, driven by robust refining margins (GRM of $18.49/bbl) and strong marketing performance. The Bina refinery operated at 105% capacity despite a planned shutdown, benefiting from high Russian crude processing and favorable diesel cracks. Marketing volumes grew 6.5% YoY, with market share gains in MS and HSD. The company outlined a ₹1,50,000 crore five-year capex plan, including a ₹49,000 crore petrochemical complex at Bina and significant investments in renewables and CGD. Net debt is nearly zero, with a debt-equity ratio of 0.032. However, management refrained from providing near-term guidance, citing volatile crude prices and geopolitical uncertainties. Key risks include potential moderation in refining cracks and delays in Mozambique LNG project.

Promises0 met · 3 missedRisks4 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Focused Modules

Claim Ledger 67% answered

Did management answer the analysts?

12 analyst questions audited, 2 evaded or deflected.

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Promises 3 promises

Promise Tracker

0 delivered, 0 close, 3 missed.

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!Risks 4 risks

Risk Intelligence

Moderation in refining cracks

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Quarter Snapshot

GRM (Gross Refining Margin) $18.49/bbl
+$5.85/bbl QoQ

Q2 GRM of $18.49/bbl vs $12.64/bbl in Q1, driven by higher cracks and Russian crude processing.

Refinery Throughput 9.35 MMT
105% of nameplate capacity

Throughput maintained at 105% despite Bina refinery shutdown in July.

Market Share Gain (MS) 0.36%
+0.36pp among PSUs

BPCL gained 0.36% market share in MS among PSUs during Q2.

Market Share Gain (HSD) 1.82%
+1.82pp among PSUs

BPCL gained 1.82% market share in HSD among PSUs during Q2.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY24 vs Q1 FY24
1 new guidance1 dropped2 new risk2 risk resolved
NEW
Five-year capex plan of ₹1,50,000 crore

BPCL outlined a ₹1,50,000 crore capex plan over five years, including ₹49,000 crore for Bina petrochemical complex and ₹26,000 crore for CGD.

UPDATED
Capex target of ₹10,000 crore for FY24

BPCL aims to spend ₹10,000 crore in capex for FY24, with ₹5,191 crore already achieved in H1.

UPDATED
Add 1,000 new retail outlets in FY24

BPCL plans to add 1,000 new retail outlets during FY24, with 300 added in H1.

UPDATED
Add 500 CNG facilities by FY24 end

BPCL aims to add 500 CNG facilities at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.

DROPPED
Petchem complex at Bina by 2028

A large petrochemical complex with 2.2 MTPA capacity and refinery expansion to 11 MMTPA is planned, with commissioning by 2028.

NEW RISK
Moderation in refining cracks

Management noted gasoline cracks have moderated in Q3, and diesel cracks may weaken post-winter, potentially impacting GRM.

NEW RISK
PDPP profitability still negative

The PDPP plant at Kochi contributed only $0.55/bbl to GRM, insufficient to cover operating expenses, indicating ongoing losses.

RISK GONE
Payment issues for Russian crude above price cap

Management acknowledged that if Russian crude prices cross $60/bbl, payment issues may arise, though more banks are now willing to settle.

RISK GONE
Dividend payout sustainability amid large capex

Analyst questioned whether elevated capex plans (INR 1.5 lakh crore over 5 years) could impact dividend payouts; management reaffirmed 30% payout policy.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Capex target of ₹10,000 crore for FY24

BPCL aims to spend ₹10,000 crore in capex for FY24, with ₹5,191 crore already achieved in H1.

Top risk Moderation in refining cracks

Management noted gasoline cracks have moderated in Q3, and diesel cracks may weaken post-winter, potentially impacting GRM.

View Risks →