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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited — Q3 FY24
BPCL reported Q3 FY24 revenue of ₹1,29,976 crore and PAT of ₹3,397 crore, with nine-month PAT at ₹22,449 crore (vs loss last year).
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BPCL reported Q3 FY24 revenue of ₹1,29,976 crore and PAT of ₹3,397 crore, with nine-month PAT at ₹22,449 crore (vs loss last year). Refinery throughput hit 9.86 MMT (100%+ capacity) despite Mumbai shutdown, with GRM of $13.35/bbl (premium to Singapore). Russian crude accounted for 40% of imports, discounts stable. Marketing sales grew 5.1% Apr-Dec, market share in petrol/diesel improved. Management outlined Project Aspire with ₹1.5-1.7 lakh crore capex over 5 years, targeting net zero by 2040. Key projects: Bina refinery expansion (7.8 to 11 MMT) and Kochi polypropylene unit (₹5,044 crore). Mozambique LNG restart expected by mid-2024. Risk: volatility in crude prices and petchem margins due to global demand weakness.
बीपीसीएल ने तीसरी तिमाही में ₹1,29,976 करोड़ की कमाई और ₹3,397 करोड़ का मुनाफा कमाया। नौ महीने का कुल मुनाफा ₹22,449 करोड़ रहा, जबकि पिछले साल घाटा था। मुंबई रिफाइनरी बंद होने के बावजूद उत्पादन 100% से अधिक रहा। हर बैरल तेल पर ₹13.35 का मुनाफा हुआ, जो सिंगापुर के दामों से बेहतर है। 40% कच्चा तेल रूस से आया, जिसकी कीमत स्थिर रही। पेट्रोल-डीजल की बिक्री 5.1% बढ़ी और बाजार हिस्सेदारी सुधरी। कंपनी ने 'प्रोजेक्ट आस्पायर' के तहत 5 साल में ₹1.5-1.7 लाख करोड़ निवेश का लक्ष्य रखा है, 2040 तक कार्बन मुक्त बनने का। बीना रिफाइनरी का विस्तार और कोच्चि में पॉलीप्रोपाइलीन प्लांट बनेगा। मोजाम्बिक से एलएनजी आपूर्ति 2024 के मध्य तक शुरू होगी। जोखिम: कच्चे तेल के दाम और पेट्रोकेमिकल मुनाफे में उतार-चढ़ाव।
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Crude price volatility and marketing margins
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Refinery throughput
9.86 MMT
+0% vs nameplate
Achieved >100% nameplate capacity despite planned Mumbai refinery shutdown in Oct-Nov.
GRM
$13.35/bbl
-$1.37/bbl QoQ
Gross refining margin declined from previous quarter but remained at premium to Singapore GRM.
Russian crude share
40%
Stable QoQ
Russian crude accounted for 40% of imports; discounts moderated but remain stable.
Ethanol blending
11.53%
+1.5pp YoY
Ethanol blending achieved 11.53% in Apr-Dec 2023; 1,800 retail outlets dispense E20 fuel.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Capex of ₹1.5-1.7 lakh crore over 5 years
Planned capital outlay includes ₹75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, ₹32,000 crore upstream, ₹25,000 crore each for gas and marketing, ₹10,000 crore for renewables.
NEW
Rights issue to be completed by March 2024
Board approved rights issue; management aims to complete within current financial year (FY24).
NEW
Mozambique LNG restart by mid-2024
Force majeure expected to be lifted around June/July 2024; work to commence shortly after.
NEW
Petrol demand growth 4-5%, diesel 1.5-2% over 5 years
Management expects MS growth of 4-5% and HSD growth of 1.5-2% CAGR over next 5 years despite EV adoption.
DROPPED
Capex target of ₹10,000 crore for FY24
BPCL aims to spend ₹10,000 crore in capex for FY24, with ₹5,191 crore already achieved in H1.
DROPPED
Add 1,000 new retail outlets in FY24
BPCL plans to add 1,000 new retail outlets during FY24, with 300 added in H1.
DROPPED
Add 500 CNG facilities by FY24 end
BPCL aims to add 500 CNG facilities at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.
DROPPED
Five-year capex plan of ₹1,50,000 crore
BPCL outlined a ₹1,50,000 crore capex plan over five years, including ₹49,000 crore for Bina petrochemical complex and ₹26,000 crore for CGD.
NEW RISK
Crude price volatility and marketing margins
Crude oil prices range-bound $80-90/bbl; marketing margins could turn negative if prices spike above $85/bbl.
NEW RISK
Petchem margins under pressure from Chinese demand
Polypropylene margins remain negative due to weak Chinese demand; recovery uncertain.
NEW RISK
Red Sea disruptions impacting crude sourcing
While currently covered till April, prolonged Red Sea tensions could raise shipping costs and narrow Russian crude discounts.
NEW RISK
High capex may strain balance sheet
Peak debt-equity expected at 1x; returns from large projects (Bina, Mozambique) will take 4-5 years to materialize.
RISK GONE
Moderation in refining cracks
Management noted gasoline cracks have moderated in Q3, and diesel cracks may weaken post-winter, potentially impacting GRM.
RISK GONE
Mozambique LNG project delays and cost escalation
The project remains under force majeure; cost escalation and timeline delays are likely, with potential impact on BPCL's E&P capex.
RISK GONE
PDPP profitability still negative
The PDPP plant at Kochi contributed only $0.55/bbl to GRM, insufficient to cover operating expenses, indicating ongoing losses.
RISK GONE
Russian crude discount compression
Management acknowledged that discounts on Russian crude have directionally reduced, which could pressure refining margins.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
BPCL plans to add 1,000 new retail outlets during FY24, with 300 added in H1.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
BPCL aims to add 500 CNG facilities at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
BPCL aims to spend ₹10,000 crore in capex for FY24, with ₹5,191 crore already achieved in H1.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
The project remains under force majeure; cost escalation and timeline delays are likely, with potential impact on BPCL's E&P capex.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Planned capital outlay includes ₹75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, ₹32,000 crore upstream, ₹25,000 crore each for gas and marketing, ₹10,000 cro...
Crude oil prices range-bound $80-90/bbl; marketing margins could turn negative if prices spike above $85/bbl.
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