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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited — Q2 FY25
BPCL reported Q2 FY25 PAT of ₹2,397 crore, impacted by ₹2,104 crore LPG under-recoveries and ₹1,113 crore marketing inventory losses.
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BPCL reported Q2 FY25 PAT of ₹2,397 crore, impacted by ₹2,104 crore LPG under-recoveries and ₹1,113 crore marketing inventory losses. Refinery throughput was strong at 10.28 MMTPA (114% capacity) with GRM of $4.41/bbl, down from $8+ in Q1 due to lower cracks and reduced Russian crude throughput (34% vs 39%). Marketing volumes grew 1.6% YoY, driven by retail network expansion (540+ new outlets in H1). Management expects LPG losses to rise to ~₹3,000 crore/quarter in H2, but has approached the government for subsidy. CapEx guidance for FY25 is ₹15,000-16,000 crore, rising to ₹18,000 crore next year. Key risk: sustained weak refining margins and elevated LPG losses could pressure cash flows and delay deleveraging.
बीपीसीएल ने दूसरी तिमाही में 2,397 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा कमाया। लेकिन एलपीजी (गैस सिलेंडर) पर 2,104 करोड़ रुपये का घाटा हुआ और तेल बेचने में 1,113 करोड़ रुपये का नुकसान हुआ। रिफाइनरी ने 10.28 मिलियन टन तेल प्रोसेस किया, जो 114% क्षमता है। तेल से मुनाफा (GRM) पिछली तिमाही के 8 डॉलर से घटकर 4.41 डॉलर प्रति बैरल रह गया। पेट्रोल-डीजल की बिक्री 1.6% बढ़ी और 540 नए पंप खोले। अब एलपीजी घाटा 3,000 करोड़ रुपये प्रति तिमाही हो सकता है, सरकार से सब्सिडी मांगी गई है। इस साल 15,000-16,000 करोड़ रुपये खर्च होंगे, अगले साल 18,000 करोड़। कमजोर मुनाफा और बढ़ता एलपीजी घाटा कंपनी की नकदी पर दबाव डाल सकता है।
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Sustained LPG under-recoveries without government compensation
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Refinery throughput
10.28 MMTPA
+14% vs nameplate capacity
Refineries operated at 114% of nameplate capacity, indicating strong operational performance.
GRM
$4.41/bbl
-$3.6/bbl QoQ
GRM fell sharply from ~$8/bbl in Q1 due to lower cracks and reduced Russian crude throughput.
LPG under-recovery
₹2,104 crore
+₹1,000 crore QoQ (est.)
LPG losses surged, expected to rise further to ~₹3,000 crore/quarter in H2.
Retail outlet additions (H1)
540+ outlets
+540 outlets H1
Aggressive network expansion driving market share gains of 0.1% in MS and 0.12% in HSD.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
LPG losses to rise to ~₹3,000 crore per quarter in H2
Assuming Saudi CP at $620-630/ton, management estimates monthly LPG under-recovery of ₹900-1,000 crore, implying ~₹3,000 crore per quarter.
NEW
Retail demand growth: MS 6%, HSD 1.5% for FY25
Management estimates retail demand growth of 6% for petrol and 1.5% for diesel in FY25, with HSD urban demand slower due to CNG transition.
NEW
CNG station additions: 300 in FY25, 800 over next 2-3 years
BPCL plans to add 300 CNG stations in FY25 and ~800 over the next 2-3 years, targeting 15-16% CAGR in CGD volumes.
UPDATED
CapEx for FY25: ₹15,000-16,000 crore
Management expects to end the year with CapEx in the range of ₹15,000-16,000 crore, slightly below the original plan of ₹16,400 crore.
DROPPED
Retail network to reach 23,000 outlets by year-end
BPCL plans to expand its retail outlet network to 23,000 by end of FY25, adding ~1,300 outlets during the year.
DROPPED
Bina petrochemical project commissioning by FY28-29
The integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina (INR 49,000 crore) is targeted for commissioning in FY28-29.
DROPPED
Ethanol blending target of 15% in current quarter
BPCL aims to achieve 15% ethanol blending in the current quarter, up from 14.13% in Q1.
NEW RISK
Weak refining margins may persist
Management expects similar crack levels for the next couple of quarters, with no big jump in spreads, which could keep GRMs subdued.
NEW RISK
CNG margin compression due to gas deallocation
Recent deallocation of gas for CNG may squeeze margins, though management believes long-term deregulation will allow pass-through.
RISK GONE
Market share pressure from private players
BPCL's overall marketing volume growth of 3.2% lagged industry growth of 5.5%, partly due to private players regaining share as pricing normalized. Diesel volumes saw degrowth.
RISK GONE
Refinery turnaround impact on throughput
Planned turnarounds at Kochi (45 days) and Bina (15 days) in H2 FY25 could temporarily reduce throughput and GRM.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24
Plan to expand network from 22,000 to 26,000 outlets; FY25 target is 1,300 new outlets.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Crude oil prices range-bound $80-90/bbl; marketing margins could turn negative if prices spike above $85/bbl.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
BPCL aims to add 500 CNG facilities at existing retail outlets by the end of FY24.
Mentioned in Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24
Planned investments include INR 75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, INR 20,000 crore for marketing, INR 25,000 crore for gas, INR 10,000 crore for green energy, and INR 32,000 crore for upstream.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects to end the year with CapEx in the range of ₹15,000-16,000 crore, slightly below the original plan of ₹16,400 crore.
LPG losses are expected to rise to ~₹3,000 crore/quarter in H2, and management has only approached the government for budget support without certai...
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