Bosch Management Guidance Tracker
37 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 11 quarters.
Capex
Capital expenditure planned for the current year is approximately INR 4.9 billion, mainly for plant machinery and equipment.
Q2 FY24CapEx of INR 350 crore for FY24TrackedManagement guided CapEx of INR 3.5 billion for FY24, mainly for localization in Common Rail and exhaust gas treatment.
Q4 FY24CapEx to remain in INR 400-600 crore rangeTrackedAnnual capital expenditure is expected to continue in the range of INR 400-600 crore, supporting localization and other investments.
Q2 FY25FY25 CapEx guidance of INR 400 croreActiveManagement guided for full-year CapEx of approximately INR 4,000 million (INR 400 crore), lower than last year due to completion of the auto body campus.
Margins
Management plans to localize production of exhaust-gas treatment components and injectors for commercial vehicles to improve margins.
Q1 FY24Employee cost trend at 8% of revenueActiveEmployee cost as a percentage of revenue is expected to be around 8% for the financial year, normalizing after provision reversals.
Q2 FY24Mid-term localization to improve marginsTrackedLocalization of Common Rail and exhaust gas treatment components over the next 4-5 years is expected to improve gross margins.
Growth
Management anticipates moderate growth in FY25 due to election year dynamics, high base, and erratic rainfall.
Q3 FY24Moderate growth expected in 2024TrackedManagement expects slower market growth in 2024 due to high base, election uncertainties, and erratic rainfall.
Q4 FY24Moderate growth expected in FY25 with Q1 slow due to electionsActiveManagement expects moderate growth for FY25, with Q1 impacted by elections and liquidity crunch, but recovery from Q2 onwards.
Q1 FY25Lambda sensor production to exceed 8 million pieces by 2025TrackedProduction of lambda sensors at Bidadi plant will ramp up from 1.2 million in 2021 to over 8 million annually by 2025.
Q2 FY25FY25 growth to mirror FY24 trajectoryTrackedManagement expects FY25 growth to mirror FY24 levels, with moderate growth for the automotive industry despite high base and inventory buildup.
Q3 FY25Aftermarket growth target of 8-10% for FY26TrackedManagement expects the Mobility Aftermarket division to grow at 8-10% in FY26, driven by diesel components, lubricants, and filters.
Q4 FY25Growth beyond industry rates through premiumization and regulationTrackedCompany aims to outgrow industry via advanced technologies, new norms, and electrification.
Q1 FY26Continuous increase in localization contentTrackedManagement reiterated commitment to increasing localization, with progress on track, though decisions depend on geopolitics and tariffs.
Q1 FY26Export growth targetTrackedBosch aims to continuously increase exports, leveraging competitiveness in certain products like knock sensors and injectors, but no specific target given.
Q2 FY26Two-wheeler OBD2 benefit expected for next two quartersActiveThe strong growth from OBD2 norms is expected to continue for the next two quarters before normalizing.
Q2 FY26Hydrogen ICE market penetration 8-15% by 2030TrackedManagement expects hydrogen technology to achieve 8-15% market penetration in heavy commercial vehicles by 2030.
Q3 FY26Record production levels expected for PV, tractors, and two-wheelers in FY26TrackedManagement expects passenger vehicles, tractors, and two-wheelers to achieve all-time high production levels in FY26, driven by strong economic fundamentals and supportive policies.
Revenue
Management indicated Q4 FY24 may be flat or see very small growth.
Q1 FY25Full-year growth similar to FY2024TrackedManagement expects FY2025 performance to be similar to FY2024, with moderate growth despite election and high base effects.
Q4 FY25Slight increase in export business next yearActiveManagement expects a slight increase in exports driven by NOx sensors, spark plugs, and injectors.
Q2 FY26Mobility aftermarket recovery in Q3ActiveSales in mobility aftermarket are expected to regain momentum in Q3 after GST 2.0 transition impact.
Other
Management expects TREM V norms for tractors to be implemented in 2026, with Bosch fully ready.
Q3 FY24PLI disbursements expected in 2024ActiveManagement expects PLI benefits to start flowing in 2024 after audits on domestic value-add.
Q4 FY24Building Technologies divestiture expected by Q1/Q2 2025TrackedThe divestiture of the Building Technologies business is expected to be completed by Q1 or Q2 of 2025.
Q3 FY25Restructuring provision of INR 47.1 crore in Q3ActiveA one-time restructuring provision of INR 47.1 crore was booked in Q3 to improve competitiveness in the Mobility business; further adjustments may follow.
Q3 FY26Dividend payout ratio of 65%-80% of profitActiveBosch has clarified its dividend policy, targeting a payout ratio of 65%-80% of profit, subject to board discretion.
Expansion
Start of production for localized exhaust gas treatment components is expected in April 2025.
Q1 FY25NOx sensor SOP in April 2025TrackedFirst localization of exhaust gas treatment component (NOx sensor) will start production in April 2025, with further localization under discussion.
Q1 FY25Power Tools India becomes independent regionTrackedIndia is now one of five independent regions within Bosch Power Tools, responsible for SAARC markets, with focus on cordless tools and exports from Chennai plant.
Q2 FY25TREM V localization readinessTrackedBosch is well prepared for TREM V norms (April 2026) with higher localization expected from the start, and capacity to handle pre-buy effects.
Q3 FY25OBD-II implementation for two-wheelers from April 2025ActiveRamp-up of OBD-II norms for two-wheelers is on track for April 2025, with Bosch supplying exhaust gas sensors and engine management systems.
Q4 FY25NOx sensor capacity of 2.1 million units per year by 2027TrackedNew Gen3 line at Bidadi will scale to 2.1 million sensors annually by 2027, targeting global OEMs.
Q3 FY26Continued localization of componentsTrackedBosch plans to localize DeNOx sensors and other Common Rail components, following the localization of NOx sensors in 2025.
Ai Strategy
Bosch plans to capitalize on EV trends in two-wheelers and three-wheelers, leveraging global portfolio and discussions with OEMs.
Q3 FY26E-axle supply to OEMs in advanced discussionsTrackedBosch is in advanced discussions with several OEMs to supply e-axles for electric four-wheelers in India, with announcements expected in coming quarters.