Ajanta Pharma Limited — Q4 FY24
Ajanta Pharma delivered a strong Q4 FY24 with revenue of INR 1,054 crore (+20% YoY), EBITDA of INR 278 crore (+86% YoY), and PAT of INR 203 crore (+66% YoY).
✓ Verified against BSE filing
Did management answer the analysts?
Every material analyst question, graded on whether management actually answered it — with the verbatim exchange and quantitative claims checked against filed numbers.
Guidance for branded and US market mid-teen growth and Red Sea risks.
Asked by Rashmi Shetty, Dolat Capital
Management provided specific drivers and addressed Red Sea impact with corrective measures.
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So the first question is related to the guidance for the branded and U.S. market, where you have mentioned we will be able to do mid-teen sort of growth in FY 25. What are the factors that would drive this mid-teen growth? And is there any risk, you know, from Red Sea disturbances which can erode this growth?
So the growth which we are anticipating is assuming the growth in various markets continue and we'll get the tailwind. But it's a factor of increasing the market share in the products we have already in the market. There are a number of new product launches which are scheduled during the year, and there'll be some increase in the field size.
Guidance for India market growth in FY25.
Asked by Rashmi Shetty, Dolat Capital
Management gave a clear numeric guidance range for India growth.
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Related to India market, what kind of guidance are we anticipating for FY 25?
We are basically aiming to grow at least 200 basis points, if possible, 300 basis points, faster than the IPM growth. If the IPM grows at 8%, which is what the forecast is, as we speak, then we are looking at a low double-digit growth between 10% and 11%.
EBITDA margin outlook for FY25 given Red Sea issues.
Asked by Rashmi Shetty, Dolat Capital
Management quantified the freight impact and reaffirmed 28% EBITDA guidance.
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On the margin front, because of the Red Sea issues and everything, any impact is expected in quarter one or anything you would like to comment for the full year FY 2025? From this 28%, is the margin trajectory will be going up, or it will remain at the similar level?
See, but as far as the Red Sea issue or the freight increase is concerned, I think, if it remains at the level where it is today in the month of April, I think the overall increase over a previous year will be about INR 30 crore. That will be the impact. But with that INR 30 crore impact, we should be able to absorb that impact, and we should be able to deliver 28% EBITDA.
US price erosion outlook and whether guidance is conservative.
Asked by Rashmi Shetty, Dolat Capital
Management explained the basis for guidance and acknowledged upside potential.
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And one last question on the U.S. front. You know, what is the position of, you know, what is the outlook related to the price erosion now? Are you seeing that it is still stable, and do you anticipate that this would continue for the entire year? And therefore, in case if it really happens that way, then do you think that your guidance is a bit conservative?
See, our guidance is based on two factors. One is that what will be the price erosion for the existing product portfolio? We are estimating high single digits, maybe 8% to 10% price erosion. We have about six new products launched planned for the next year, assuming we get the approval from the FDA as per the timeline.
Can EBITDA and PAT margins return to FY21 levels?
Asked by Aman Kumar Singh
Management clearly explained that FY21 margins were an aberration and not sustainable.
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In financial year 2021, our overall performance was very good in terms of percentages. Like, the EBITDA margin was nearly 35%. And the PAT margin was about 23% to 24%. So how do we... Can we go back to that kind of a level in coming years?
So I think, 21 was an aberration. The margins of not only Ajanta, most of the companies, Pharma Companies, were elevated because of the COVID, where the expenses reduced significantly, and that improved the margins of Ajanta and number of companies. So I think those margins should be taken as an aberration.
Outlook for India pharma industry growth over next 2-3 years.
Asked by Tushar Manudhane, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Management gave near-term forecast but declined to comment on 2-3 year outlook.
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Sir, on the India business at the industry level, the growth seems to be, you know, significantly on the downtrend. If you could, you know, share your experience in terms of the outlook, not just for FY 25, but maybe like next two, three years, how to think about the industry growth prospects?
It would be very hard to comment on two, three years. You know, but for the coming year, the IMS, the IQVIA forecast is in the range of around 8% to 9%. And, so that is the forecast that we have got from IQVIA, which is what is a respected agency for all of us.
Asia market growth drivers and outlook for next couple of years.
Asked by Tushar Manudhane, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Management explained drivers and gave optimistic outlook for Asia and Africa.
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And just secondly, on Asia market, the last two quarters, we have seen the phenomenal uptick, at an absolute sales level from almost INR 230-240 crore, the average quarterly run rate. Now we are at INR 280-290. So if you could, you know, shed some more light over here, and specifically Asia market, how to think about for next couple of years?
So again, the story remains the same, Tushar. We've got good product launches which came, we increased our market share. Clinically, we are executing very well. So clearly, a result of good product selection, good strategy in marketing, good understanding of the marketing landscape, good connect with the customers, and a very good execution.
Sales force addition in international markets and total MR count.
Asked by Harsh Bhatia, Bandhan AMC
Management provided specific numbers on MR count and planned additions.
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So you made a passing comment that you might be looking at adding to the sales force international markets. So this is over and above the 50% addition that we have done in the international markets, or, I'm not able to understand.
That's right. So we are talking on the current year, which we have about 4,900 of MRs. Overall, we are looking to add about 3%-4%, MR, and most of it will happen... Not most of it, all of it will happen in the international markets, so Africa and Asia.
Cardiology performance in Q4 and comparison to market growth.
Asked by Harsh Bhatia, Bandhan AMC
Management gave specific growth numbers and explained the impact of metaxalone price reduction.
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And lastly, how was the overall cardiology performance for this quarter in particular, as compared to the last quarter? Has that differential sort of narrowed down, or are you still seeing signs of weakness, rather, competition, anything on your thoughts?
Overall, in cardiology for the last financial year, we have grown at 11%, whereas the segment growth is 10% if I normalize my metaxalone price. If you remember, we have taken an over 18% price reduction in metaxalone, which is the largest brand for us, and that impact brought the growth down to 4% only. But if I normalize that price, our growth would have been 11%.
R&D plan for US market and number of NDAs planned per year.
Asked by Bino Pathiparampil, Elara Capital
Management provided a clear numeric range for NDA filings.
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What's the R&D plan now for the U.S. market? How many NDAs do you plan to file a year?
We are looking to file 8-12 NDAs in the current year coming in FY 2025.
Compounded price erosion in US over last 4-5 years.
Asked by Vishal Manchanda, Systematix
Management gave recent erosion rates but did not provide the requested compounded figure.
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In the U.S., would you be able to give a number as to how, on a compounded basis, your prices would have eroded over the last, say, four or five years?
I won't have that number right away with me. As you know, I think last year the erosions were 20% and upwards, 20% to 25%, just a year after the COVID. Currently, we are seeing the price erosions to be in the range of 8% to 11%.
Why EBITDA margin guidance is flat despite good outlook.
Asked by Forum Parekh, Mirae Asset Sharekhan
Management explained specific cost increases that offset the positive outlook.
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Sir, I just wanted to understand, since you have given a good outlook for the next year in terms of branded generics, so being able to grow and mid double digits, and U.S. generics growth also expected to do good because of shortages and all. And also, Red Sea crisis is not going to have major impact on the cost. So may I understand why the EBITDA margin guidance is still flat despite the good outlook?
So a few factors. One is that, the expenses are going up, and the second is we've factored in about INR 30 crore-INR 35 crore for the current, prevailing prices for the freight, so that will eat up a little bit. There'll be increase in the manpower, as I just told you, we are adding 200 people.
| Claim | Management said | Filing | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| India business to grow 10-11% in FY25 | 10.5% | 20% | Understated vs filing |
| EBITDA margin guidance of 28% for FY25 | 28% | 26% | Overstated vs filing |
| Cardiology growth in Q4 FY24 at 14% | 14% | 20% | Understated vs filing |
Filed figures sourced from Screener.in. Claims within a small tolerance of the filing are marked “matches filing”.