Ajanta Pharma Management Guidance Tracker
48 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Revenue
Management expects mid-teen percentage growth for the full year across branded generics and US generics.
Q1 FY24US generics revenue similar level in next three quartersActiveUS generics revenue expected to remain at similar levels as Q1 (₹213 crore) for the next three quarters.
Q2 FY24Asia branded business to deliver low-teens growth in FY24TrackedDespite an 8% decline in Q2, management expects Asia branded business to post low-teens growth for the full year, driven by recovery in H2.
Q2 FY24Africa branded business to deliver low-teens growth in FY24TrackedAfrica branded business is expected to bounce back and deliver low-teens growth for FY24, after a flattish H1.
Q2 FY24US revenues to sustain at similar levels for next two quartersActiveManagement expects US generics revenue to remain at Q2 levels for the next two quarters, factoring in new launches and market share changes.
Q3 FY24India business to grow low double digits in FY24ActiveIndia business expected to grow 12-13% for full year FY24, with Q4 aspiration to cross 15%.
Q3 FY24Asia branded to grow low teens in FY24ActiveAsia branded business expected to grow low double digits for full year FY24.
Q3 FY24Africa branded to grow mid to high single digits in FY24ActiveAfrica branded business expected to grow mid to high single digits for full year FY24.
Q4 FY24Overall revenue growth of low teens in FY25TrackedManagement expects consolidated revenue to grow in low teens, with branded generics growing mid-teens and US generics in mid-single digits.
Q1 FY25FY25 revenue growth in low teensTrackedOverall revenue expected to grow in low teens, with branded generics mid-teens, US mid-single digit, and Africa institutional degrowth.
Q2 FY25Branded generics mid-teens growth for FY25ActiveManagement expects branded generics (India, Asia, Africa) to grow in mid-teens for the full year, with Asia and Africa growth moderating in H2.
Q2 FY25US generics mid-single digit growth for FY25ActiveUS generics expected to grow in mid-single digits, with most launches in Q4; 4 ANDA launches planned in H2.
Q3 FY25U.S. generics double-digit growth in FY26TrackedManagement guided for double-digit growth in U.S. generics next fiscal year, driven by new launches including 2-3 limited competition products.
Q4 FY25FY26 Revenue Growth: Branded generics low-teens, US generics high-teensTrackedManagement expects branded generic business to grow in low teens and US generics in high teens, driven by new product launches and market share gains.
Q1 FY26US generics run-rate to sustain at current level for FY26ActiveManagement expects the current quarterly run-rate of ~INR 310 crore to continue for the remaining three quarters, supported by existing limited-competition products and 2-3 more launches planned.
Q2 FY26US generics to sustain current run rate in H2ActiveUS generics revenue run rate of ~INR 343 crore per quarter is expected to be sustained for the next two quarters.
Q4 FY26Revenue growth of high-teens for FY27TrackedManagement expects overall revenue growth in the high-teens range, driven by recovery in Asia and Africa, while US generics moderate.
Margins
EBITDA margin guided at 25% ±1% for FY24, supported by gross margin stability and cost control.
Q2 FY24FY24 EBITDA margin guidance upgraded to ~26%TrackedManagement expects EBITDA margin of around 26% for FY24, up from earlier guidance of 25%, due to improved gross margins and lower logistics costs.
Q3 FY24FY24 EBITDA margin guidance revised to 27% ±1%ActiveManagement revised full-year EBITDA margin guidance to 27% ±1%, down from 28% in 9M, due to higher freight costs from Red Sea crisis and increased Q4 expenses.
Q4 FY24EBITDA margin to sustain at ~28% in FY25TrackedManagement guided for EBITDA margin of ~28% for FY25, with potential 100 bps improvement if freight costs normalize.
Q1 FY25EBITDA margin around 29% ±1% for FY25TrackedEBITDA margin expected to remain in the range of 28-30% for the full year, supported by stable gross margins and controlled expenses.
Q2 FY25EBITDA margin around 28% ±1% for FY25TrackedFull-year EBITDA margin guided at 28% plus/minus 1%, with quarterly variations due to product mix and forex.
Q3 FY25EBITDA margin of 28% ±1% for FY25ActiveManagement expects EBITDA margin to remain around 28% for the full fiscal year, with quarterly fluctuations of 50-100 bps.
Q4 FY25FY26 EBITDA Margin ~28% (similar to FY25)TrackedCFO guided EBITDA margin around 28% plus/minus 1% for FY26, similar to FY25 level, as higher personnel costs offset gross margin improvements.
Q1 FY26EBITDA margin guidance of 27% ± 1% for FY26TrackedCFO guided EBITDA margin in the range of 26-28% for the full year, with potential expansion in FY27 as investments moderate.
Q2 FY26EBITDA margin of 27%±1% for H2 FY26ActiveManagement expects EBITDA margin (excluding forex impact) to remain at 27%±1% for the remaining two quarters.
Q3 FY26EBITDA margin guidance of 27%±1% for FY26ActiveManagement reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of 27%±1% for the full year, excluding mark-to-market forex impact.
Q3 FY26Gross margin around 78%±1% for FY26ActiveGross margin expected to remain around 78%±1% for the full year.
Q4 FY26EBITDA margin of ~27% for FY27TrackedEBITDA margin guidance of 27% ±1%, factoring in investments in MR additions, R&D, and higher freight/raw material costs from Middle East conflict.
Capex
Capital expenditure for FY24 estimated at ₹200 crore, including maintenance and new corporate house CapEx.
Q4 FY24CapEx of INR 175-200 crore in FY25TrackedCapital expenditure for FY25 is estimated at INR 175-200 crore, including maintenance capex.
Q1 FY25CapEx of INR 175 crore for FY25TrackedCapital expenditure for FY25 estimated at INR 175 crore, including maintenance capex.
Q2 FY25CapEx of INR 200 crore for FY25TrackedCapital expenditure for FY25 estimated at INR 200 crore, including maintenance CapEx; INR 130 crore spent in H1.
Q3 FY25Capex of ~INR 225 crore for FY25ActiveCapital expenditure for FY25 is estimated at about INR 225 crore, including maintenance capex.
Q4 FY25FY26 Capex ~INR 300 croreTrackedCapital expenditure for FY26 is estimated at around INR 300 crore, including maintenance capex and ongoing projects like the liquid plant at Pithampur.
Q1 FY26CapEx guidance of INR 300 crore for FY26TrackedIncludes maintenance CapEx of INR 150-200 crore and expansion of liquid plant at Pithampur for emerging markets.
Q2 FY26Capex of INR 300 crore for FY26ActiveCapex incurred INR 145 crore in H1, expected to be in line with full-year guidance of INR 300 crore.
Q3 FY26Capex guidance of ~INR 300 crore for FY26ActiveCapital expenditure for 9M stood at INR 235 crore; full year guidance of around INR 300 crore.
Q4 FY26Capex of ~INR 400 crore for FY27TrackedCapex includes INR 150 crore maintenance and INR 250 crore for capacity expansion at existing sites.
Growth
India branded generics are expected to grow 200-300 bps faster than IPM (forecast ~8%), implying 10-11% growth.
Q1 FY25US ANDA filings of 8-12 in FY25TrackedTarget to file 8-12 ANDAs in the current fiscal year, with launches skewed towards Q3 and Q4.
Q4 FY25FY26 ANDA Filings: 10-12 filingsTrackedManagement expects to file 10-12 ANDAs in FY26, with a robust pipeline and several products in advanced stages.
Q1 FY26India business to grow 20-25% higher than IPM growthActiveIndia business aims to grow at 10%+ if IPM grows at 8%, maintaining its outperformance trajectory.
Q2 FY26Africa business to achieve double-digit growth in FY26ActiveAfrica business guidance upgraded from mid-single-digit to double-digit growth for the full year.
Q3 FY26US generics double-digit growth in FY27TrackedManagement expects US generics to post double-digit growth in FY27, though growth rate may moderate from FY26 levels.
Q4 FY26US generics mid-single-digit growth in FY27TrackedUS generics expected to grow at mid-single digits due to high base and seasonal flu product impact; 4-5 new launches planned in H2.