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AJANTPHARM Diversified 12 Nov 2024

Ajanta Pharma Limited — Q2 FY25

Ajanta Pharma delivered a solid Q2 FY25 with revenue of INR 1,187 crore (+15% YoY), driven by strong branded generics growth of 20% (Asia +28%, Africa +35%).

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Revenue ₹1,187 Cr +15%
EBITDA ₹311 Cr +7%
PAT ₹216 Cr +11%
EBITDA Margin 26%
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2-Minute Summary

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Ajanta Pharma delivered a solid Q2 FY25 with revenue of INR 1,187 crore (+15% YoY), driven by strong branded generics growth of 20% (Asia +28%, Africa +35%). EBITDA margin came in at 26% (28% excluding forex loss), with PAT at INR 216 crore (+11% YoY). The India business grew 9%, outpacing IPM by 190 bps, supported by volume growth and MR additions. Management maintained full-year guidance: branded generics mid-teens growth, US mid-single digits, and EBITDA margin around 28% ±1%. Key risks include elevated freight costs from Red Sea disruptions and unpredictable institutional business in Africa. Overall, execution remains strong with improving working capital and cash conversion of 121%.

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Elevated freight costs due to Red Sea disruption

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Quarter Snapshot

Branded Generics Growth 20%
+20% YoY

Branded generics revenue grew 20% YoY to INR 894 crore, driven by Asia (+28%) and Africa (+35%).

India Business Growth vs IPM 9.6%
+190bps vs IPM

India business grew 9.6% vs IPM growth of 7.7% (IQVIA MAT Sep 2024), driven by volume growth 1.5x IPM.

Cash Conversion Ratio 121%
+121%

H1 FY25 cash conversion ratio of 121% reflects strong working capital improvement, with receivables down to 81 days.

MR Addition in India 200
+200 in Q2

Added 200 medical representatives in Q2, taking total to 3,200+, to strengthen coverage in existing therapies.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY25 vs Q1 FY25
2 new guidance2 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
Branded generics mid-teens growth for FY25

Management expects branded generics (India, Asia, Africa) to grow in mid-teens for the full year, with Asia and Africa growth moderating in H2.

NEW
US generics mid-single digit growth for FY25

US generics expected to grow in mid-single digits, with most launches in Q4; 4 ANDA launches planned in H2.

UPDATED
EBITDA margin around 28% ±1% for FY25

Full-year EBITDA margin guided at 28% plus/minus 1%, with quarterly variations due to product mix and forex.

UPDATED
CapEx of INR 200 crore for FY25

Capital expenditure for FY25 estimated at INR 200 crore, including maintenance CapEx; INR 130 crore spent in H1.

DROPPED
FY25 revenue growth in low teens

Overall revenue expected to grow in low teens, with branded generics mid-teens, US mid-single digit, and Africa institutional degrowth.

DROPPED
US ANDA filings of 8-12 in FY25

Target to file 8-12 ANDAs in the current fiscal year, with launches skewed towards Q3 and Q4.

NEW RISK
Elevated freight costs due to Red Sea disruption

Freight costs remain elevated due to Red Sea crisis, with an annual burden of ~INR 30 crore impacting other expenses.

NEW RISK
Potential margin pressure from SG&A ramp-up

Analyst raised concern about elevated other expenses; management attributed to SG&A ramp-up and one-time gratuity charge, but H2 expenses expected in line with H1.

NEW RISK
Price erosion in US generics

US generics growth remains muted at 2% in H1, with limited launches; pricing pressure and competitive landscape could impact future growth.

RISK GONE
Freight cost headwind of INR 30 crore

Management expects an adverse impact of INR 30 crore in freight costs for FY25 compared to FY24, assuming current rates persist.

RISK GONE
US price erosion in high single digits

US generic price erosion remains stable but at high single digits, which could pressure margins if competition intensifies.

RISK GONE
Employee cost one-time charge normalization

Q1 employee costs included a one-time INR 30 crore gratuity policy change; while normalized in subsequent quarters, it highlights potential for future policy-driven cost increases.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Africa branded business to deliver low-teens growth in FY24

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Overall revenue expected to grow in low teens, with branded generics mid-teens, US mid-single digit, and Africa institutional degrowth.

Chantix launch timing uncertain

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Chantix launch is delayed to Q4 FY24 or Q1 FY25; any further delay could impact US revenue expectations.

India business to grow low double digits in FY24

Mentioned in Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24

India branded generics are expected to grow 200-300 bps faster than IPM (forecast ~8%), implying 10-11% growth.

Red Sea crisis impacting freight costs and transit times

Mentioned in Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24

Increased transit times and freight costs due to Red Sea crisis could add ~INR 30 crore to expenses, potentially pressuring margins.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Branded generics mid-teens growth for FY25

Management expects branded generics (India, Asia, Africa) to grow in mid-teens for the full year, with Asia and Africa growth moderating in H2.

Top risk Elevated freight costs due to Red Sea disruption

Freight costs remain elevated due to Red Sea crisis, with an annual burden of ~INR 30 crore impacting other expenses.

View Risks →