Adani Green Energy FY24 Annual Earnings Summary

With only 200 MW added in H1, the company needs to commission ~2.6 GW in H2 to meet its 2.8-3 GW target. Any delays in Khavda or module supply could cause slippage.

Wind CUF declined to 38.7% from 47% YoY due to lower wind speeds and Cyclone Biparjoy, impacting generation.

While the company gets preferential pricing, discounts are smaller when market prices are low; future module price direction is uncertain.

Management acknowledged that supplier and contractor ecosystem is near upper limits, requiring proactive vendor development.

An analyst raised concerns about using Chinese modules (non-ALMM) for projects with SCOD near March 2024. Management clarified that current projects are exempt, but future projects may face restrictions.

While recent module price declines benefit returns, management noted that prices are volatile and a $0.01 change impacts IRR by 1-1.2%. A sudden price spike could affect project economics.

The $750 million Holdco bond maturing in FY2025 is expected to be repaid from a group liquidity pool, but any disruption in group-level liquidity could create refinancing pressure.

Transmission evacuation readiness and supply chain constraints for long-lead items could delay capacity additions.

Implementation of ALMM from April 2024 may restrict procurement from China, potentially increasing module costs for new projects.

Pumped storage projects have long gestation periods (5 years) and require clearances; past industry stalling poses a risk.

ALMM regulations may restrict module imports, but management stated all FY25 requirements are fully locked in and de-risked.

Pumped hydro is a complex infrastructure project with longer timelines (3-3.5 years) and higher capital costs (INR 4.5-5 crore/MW).