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ABFRL Diversified 08 Feb 2024

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited — Q3 FY24

ABFRL reported Q3 FY24 consolidated revenue of INR 4,167 crore, up 16% YoY, driven by new businesses (ethnic, digital, sportswear) contributing ~20% of revenue.

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Revenue ₹4,167 Cr +16%
EBITDA ₹605 Cr
EBITDA Margin 14.5% +150bps
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ABFRL reported Q3 FY24 consolidated revenue of INR 4,167 crore, up 16% YoY, driven by new businesses (ethnic, digital, sportswear) contributing ~20% of revenue. EBITDA grew to INR 605 crore with margin expansion of 150 bps to 14.5%, aided by gross margin improvement and lower markdowns. PAT was negative at INR 108 crore due to higher depreciation and interest costs. Standalone revenue grew 5% to INR 3,516 crore, with EBITDA margin expanding 315 bps to 17.4%. Lifestyle brands saw muted growth due to conscious discount reduction, while Pantaloons delivered 12% revenue growth and 360 bps margin expansion. New businesses like Sabyasachi (43% growth) and TMRW (3.7x revenue) performed well. Management expects subdued demand to persist, especially in smaller towns, and guided for moderate store additions. Key risk: sustained consumer slowdown impacting value segment recovery.

Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks4 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Promises 2 promises

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!Risks 4 risks

Risk Intelligence

Sustained demand slowdown in smaller towns

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Quarter Snapshot

Store Network 4,753
+TCNS addition

Total store count including TCNS, spanning 12.2 million sq ft retail area.

Sabyasachi Revenue INR 150 crore
+43% YoY

Highest-ever quarterly revenue, driven by strong jewelry and new store performance.

TMRW ARR INR 600 crore
3.7x YoY

Annualized revenue run rate post integration of Indian Garage Company.

American Eagle Stores 59
+10 stores in Q3

Rapid expansion with 34% revenue growth, available in 100+ departmental stores.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q3 FY24 vs Q2 FY24
4 new guidance4 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
Tasva store target of 200-odd stores in 3-4 years

Management targets a network of about 200 stores for Tasva over the next 3-4 years, with current 67 stores and annual addition of 30-40 stores.

NEW
Pantaloons store addition of 25-30 stores in FY25

Pantaloons plans to add 25-30 stores in FY25, similar to the current year's pace.

NEW
TMRW not profitable for at least next three years

TMRW is not expected to turn profitable in the next three years due to its accumulation model and cost structure.

NEW
No inorganic acquisitions in near future

Management stated no plans for inorganic additions as the balance sheet is stretched and current portfolio is sufficient.

DROPPED
Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024

Management reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.

DROPPED
Pantaloons store additions of 30-35 stores for FY24

Pantaloons added 15 stores in H1; management maintains full-year guidance of 30-35 store additions.

DROPPED
TCNS revenue target of INR 2,000-2,500 crore in 3-4 years

Management expects TCNS to reach INR 2,000-2,500 crore revenue and double-digit pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin in 3-4 years.

DROPPED
TMRW peak losses in H1 FY24, moderation in H2

TMRW losses peaked in Q2 and will moderate in H2; full-year losses lower than H1 run rate.

NEW RISK
Sustained demand slowdown in smaller towns

Consumer demand remains soft, especially in lower-tier towns and value segments, impacting Pantaloons and mass-market brands.

NEW RISK
High debt and interest burden

Net debt at INR 4,000 crore with elevated interest costs, impacting PAT and limiting financial flexibility.

NEW RISK
Competitive intensity in value fashion

Analyst raised concern about increased competition in the value segment; management acknowledged but believes Pantaloons' premiumization strategy differentiates.

RISK GONE
Sustained demand weakness in value segment

Pantaloons and innerwear continue to face demand pressure from lower-income consumers, with no clear recovery timeline.

RISK GONE
Elevated debt levels post-TCNS acquisition

Net debt stood at INR 4,355 crore post-acquisition; management expects debt to remain elevated for 18-24 months, posing financial risk if demand does not recover.

RISK GONE
Innerwear business continued losses

Innerwear segment declined 10% YoY and losses have increased; management has slowed retail expansion, indicating prolonged pressure.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Management reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Tasva store target of 200-odd stores in 3-4 years

Management targets a network of about 200 stores for Tasva over the next 3-4 years, with current 67 stores and annual addition of 30-40 stores.

Top risk Sustained demand slowdown in smaller towns

Consumer demand remains soft, especially in lower-tier towns and value segments, impacting Pantaloons and mass-market brands.

View Risks →