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ABFRL Diversified 27 Oct 2023

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited — Q2 FY24

ABFRL reported Q2 FY24 consolidated revenue of INR 3,226 crore (+5% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 369 crore (11.4% margin).

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Revenue ₹3,226 Cr +5%
EBITDA ₹369 Cr
EBITDA Margin 11.4%
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2-Minute Summary

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ABFRL reported Q2 FY24 consolidated revenue of INR 3,226 crore (+5% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 369 crore (11.4% margin). PAT was negative at INR 200 crore. The quarter was impacted by sluggish discretionary spending, Adhik Maas, festive shift, and fewer wedding dates. Lifestyle Brands revenue fell 6% YoY but EBITDA margin expanded 430bps to 21.3% due to cost measures and gross margin improvement. Pantaloons revenue declined to INR 1,021 crore, with gross margin dilution of 250-300bps from inventory liquidation. Innerwear declined 10% YoY. Reebok grew 77% and American Eagle 37%. TCNS acquisition (51%) completed in September. Management is cautiously optimistic on festive recovery but notes continued stress at lower-end consumers. Risk: sustained demand weakness in value segment could delay margin recovery.

Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks4 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Promises 2 promises

Promise Tracker

0 delivered, 0 close, 2 missed.

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!Risks 4 risks

Risk Intelligence

Sustained demand weakness in value segment

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Quarter Snapshot

Lifestyle Brands EBITDA Margin 21.3%
+430bps YoY

Lifestyle Brands EBITDA margin expanded 430 bps YoY to 21.3%, driven by cost measures and gross margin improvement.

Reebok Revenue Growth 77%
+77% YoY

Reebok revenue grew 77% YoY on rapid distribution expansion and strong like-to-like growth.

Pantaloons Gross Margin Dilution 250-300bps
-250 to -300bps YoY

Pantaloons gross margin diluted 250-300 bps due to deep discounting to clear old inventory.

Store Network 4,056 stores
+48 stores QoQ

Net addition of 48 stores during Q2, taking total store count to 4,056.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY24 vs Q1 FY24
2 new guidance2 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
TCNS revenue target of INR 2,000-2,500 crore in 3-4 years

Management expects TCNS to reach INR 2,000-2,500 crore revenue and double-digit pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin in 3-4 years.

NEW
TMRW peak losses in H1 FY24, moderation in H2

TMRW losses peaked in Q2 and will moderate in H2; full-year losses lower than H1 run rate.

UPDATED
Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024

Management reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.

UPDATED
Pantaloons store additions of 30-35 stores for FY24

Pantaloons added 15 stores in H1; management maintains full-year guidance of 30-35 store additions.

DROPPED
Tasva to add 40 stores in FY24

Tasva will add approximately 40 stores this year, with investment of INR 75 lakh to INR 1 crore per store.

DROPPED
Reebok to be profitable on full-year basis

Reebok is expected to be profitable for the full year, with store count reaching 170-200 by year-end.

NEW RISK
Sustained demand weakness in value segment

Pantaloons and innerwear continue to face demand pressure from lower-income consumers, with no clear recovery timeline.

NEW RISK
Elevated debt levels post-TCNS acquisition

Net debt stood at INR 4,355 crore post-acquisition; management expects debt to remain elevated for 18-24 months, posing financial risk if demand does not recover.

NEW RISK
TCNS integration and recovery uncertainty

TCNS has been loss-making; management declined to provide near-term guidance, citing transitory phase. Integration risks and design challenges may delay turnaround.

NEW RISK
Innerwear business continued losses

Innerwear segment declined 10% YoY and losses have increased; management has slowed retail expansion, indicating prolonged pressure.

RISK GONE
Prolonged discretionary consumption slowdown

Demand weakness has persisted for three quarters and may not recover until H2 festive season, impacting revenue and margins.

RISK GONE
Elevated debt and balance sheet strain

Net debt rose to INR 2,100 crore and is expected to reach INR 2,800 crore, increasing financial risk.

RISK GONE
Pantaloons underperformance vs peers

Analyst flagged low sales per sq ft and negative LFL; management defended but acknowledged challenges in value segment.

RISK GONE
TCNS acquisition integration risk

Management declined to comment on turnaround plans for TCNS, citing premature stage, raising uncertainty.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024

Management reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.

Top risk Sustained demand weakness in value segment

Pantaloons and innerwear continue to face demand pressure from lower-income consumers, with no clear recovery timeline.

View Risks →