Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Management Guidance Tracker
43 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 11 quarters.
Expansion
Management reduced Pantaloons store opening guidance from 60 to 35-40 stores due to demand slowdown.
Q1 FY24Tasva to add 40 stores in FY24ActiveTasva will add approximately 40 stores this year, with investment of INR 75 lakh to INR 1 crore per store.
Q2 FY24Pantaloons store additions of 30-35 stores for FY24TrackedPantaloons added 15 stores in H1; management maintains full-year guidance of 30-35 store additions.
Q3 FY24Tasva store target of 200-odd stores in 3-4 yearsTrackedManagement targets a network of about 200 stores for Tasva over the next 3-4 years, with current 67 stores and annual addition of 30-40 stores.
Q3 FY24Pantaloons store addition of 25-30 stores in FY25TrackedPantaloons plans to add 25-30 stores in FY25, similar to the current year's pace.
Q4 FY24Pantaloons to add 25-30 stores in FY25ActivePantaloons plans to open about 25-30 new stores in the current fiscal year, focusing on right-sized stores.
Q1 FY25Pantaloons store additions of 20-25 in FY25TrackedPantaloons plans to add 20-25 stores in FY25, with expansion back-ended.
Q2 FY25Pantaloons store expansion of 20-25 stores per yearTrackedPantaloons plans to open 20-25 stores annually, focusing on larger stores in urban and Tier 1 markets.
Q3 FY25ABLBL to open 300+ new stores in next 12 monthsTrackedPost-demerger, lifestyle brands will aggressively expand retail network, leveraging own cash flows.
Q3 FY25Style Up to double store count to ~100 by end of FY26TrackedValue fashion format expected to add about 50 stores next year, ending FY25 with 45-50 stores.
Q3 FY25Tasva to add ~50 stores in FY26TrackedMen's ethnic wear brand to accelerate expansion from ~70 stores currently, targeting 40-50 new stores.
Q4 FY25Style Up to reach 300+ stores in 3 yearsActiveValue retail format to expand from 46 stores to over 300 stores in the next three years, with 50 stores planned in FY2026.
Q2 FY26TASVA to exit fiscal year with 100+ storesTrackedTASVA is targeting to have more than 100 stores by the end of the fiscal year, up from 78 stores currently.
Q3 FY26TCNS to add 50-60 stores next yearTrackedTCNS plans to expand its store network by 50-60 stores in FY27, after a period of consolidation.
Growth
Reebok is expected to be profitable for the full year, with store count reaching 170-200 by year-end.
Q3 FY24TMRW not profitable for at least next three yearsTrackedTMRW is not expected to turn profitable in the next three years due to its accumulation model and cost structure.
Q4 FY24Tasva to double revenue and add 30+ storesTrackedTasva aims to double its revenue in the short term and add over 30 stores this year.
Q2 FY25Lifestyle brands double-digit CAGR growthTrackedManagement expects lifestyle brands to sustain double-digit revenue CAGR over the long term.
Q4 FY25ABFRL targets 3x revenue and 2x margin expansion over 5 yearsTrackedManagement expects to triple revenue and double EBITDA margins from current levels by FY2030, driven by scaling ethnic wear, value retail, and digital-first brands.
Q1 FY26Tasva break-even by FY27 endTrackedTasva is expected to reach break-even by the end of FY2027 as it scales to ~200 stores over three years.
Q2 FY26TCNS to become a key profitable growth driverTrackedManagement expects TCNS to turn around completely and become a profitable growth driver within the Ethnic portfolio by next year.
Q3 FY26Pantaloons mid-to-high single-digit LTL growthActivePantaloons expects like-to-like growth in the mid-to-high single digits, with overall double-digit growth including new stores.
Other
Net debt expected to reach INR 2,800 crore by end of FY24, including TCNS acquisition payment.
Q2 FY24Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024ActiveManagement reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.
Q3 FY24No inorganic acquisitions in near futureActiveManagement stated no plans for inorganic additions as the balance sheet is stretched and current portfolio is sufficient.
Q4 FY24Demerger completion by Q3/Q4 FY25TrackedThe demerger of Madura Fashion & Lifestyle is expected to be completed by end of Q3 or Q4 of FY25.
Q1 FY25Demerger completion by end of FY25TrackedThe demerger of the branded business is expected to be completed by end of fiscal year 2025.
Q2 FY25Debt reduction of INR 400-500 crore in H2ActiveManagement expects net debt to reduce by INR 400-500 crore in the second half due to seasonal sales pickup.
Q3 FY25ABLBL to become debt-free in 2-2.5 yearsTrackedLifestyle brands entity will start with INR 700 crore debt and aim to repay over next two to two and a half years.
Q2 FY26H2 cash generation to improve significantlyActiveManagement expects cash generation to improve in H2 due to higher sales and collections from the wedding season, offsetting H1 cash burn.
Revenue
Margins
TMRW losses peaked in Q2 and will moderate in H2; full-year losses lower than H1 run rate.
Q1 FY25TCNS to turn EBITDA positive in H2 FY25ActiveManagement expects TCNS to become profitable in the second half of FY25 as inventory corrections are largely complete.
Q2 FY25TCNS to break even by Q3FY25ActiveTCNS business is on track to become profitable in Q3FY25, with improving product quality and margins.
Q4 FY25Pantaloons margin expansion of 300bps over next 2 yearsTrackedPantaloons format expected to improve EBITDA margins by at least 300 basis points from current levels, driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage.
Q4 FY25TCNS portfolio to turn pre-Ind AS EBITDA positive by FY2027TrackedTCNS, currently loss-making, is expected to achieve pre-Ind AS EBITDA profitability by FY2027, with significant EBITDA improvement in FY2026.
Q1 FY26Ethnic business EBITDA margin target north of 20%TrackedManagement expects portfolio-level post-index EBITDA margins to exceed 20% as TCNS turns around and Tasva scales.
Q1 FY26TMRW EBITDA break-even by FY29TrackedTMRW targets EBITDA break-even by FY2029, with offline expansion improving gross margins by ~1000 bps.
Q1 FY26Pantaloons margin improvement of 300-500 bpsTrackedManagement sees potential for 300-500 bps margin improvement in Pantaloons through better product mix and store productivity.
Q2 FY26Pantaloons segment margin target of 15-17%ActiveManagement reiterated that Pantaloons segment EBITDA margin should be in the range of 15-17%, though near-term marketing spend may cause fluctuations.
Q3 FY26TMRW breakeven by FY29TrackedTMRW is expected to achieve breakeven on a pre-Ind AS basis by FY2029, with current losses at 12-15% of revenue.
Q3 FY26Ex-TMRW pre-Ind AS profit next yearTrackedABFRL excluding TMRW is expected to report full-year pre-Ind AS profit from FY27 onwards, as loss-making businesses turn around.